Snowstorm5921 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Definitely can’t toss the EPS especially when it’s been this consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: although the Euro is way better than GFS...ive seen the GEFS beat the EPS quite a few times I’ve seen it regularly bust in the 11-15 day period since it’s upgrade 5 or so years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’ve seen it regularly bust in the 11-15 day period since it’s upgrade 5 or so years ago. It better bust again or I'm going on an epic melt/rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We're going to have to put all our faith in north american NWP because europe just cancelled Jan. what dosent make sense is how this SSW would cause the worst blue of the year around the Arctic and Greenland lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 It’s North America (GEFS + GEPS) vs Europe (EPS). I’m hanging my hat on the NA models being able to better handle the dynamics over NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: It better bust again or I'm going on an epic melt/rant Most don’t follow it much outside the December to March period. It frequently gets beat by the GFES beyond day 10 when nobody is really paying attention. We did have two cases in the last few winters where it happened as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Looks the same as 0Z. Differences are negligible....So, it's tied for the worst run of the year. Actually 0z looked a tad better at the end. Appears no 'good' trend is underway though. EPS is on one hell of an extended run of bad chili. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It better bust again or I'm going on an epic melt/rant Again? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 I know there are a few on here that have photographic memories....Anyone recall how the Euro handled last years SSW event? Wonder what the LR progs were like in early Feb? I know this question is a tall order that will probably go unanswered but figured I would try.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Most don’t follow it much outside the December to March period. It frequently gets beat by the GFES beyond day 10 when nobody is really paying attention. We did have two cases in the last few winters where it happened as well Wow, thats very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: I know there are a few on here that have photographic memories....Anyone recall how the Euro handled last years SSW event? Wonder what the LR progs were like in early Feb? I know this question is a tall order that will probably go unanswered but figured I would try.... Great question, I dont remember, but like to hear form anyone who does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, frd said: Wow, thats very interesting. I also doubt there is much truth to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Again? Lol Nah, this weekend was a mini melt. I'll go full tilt if the EPS furnace verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I know there are a few on here that have photographic memories....Anyone recall how the Euro handled last years SSW event? Wonder what the LR progs were like in early Feb? I know this question is a tall order that will probably go unanswered but figured I would try.... I just asked two people and got two different answers. One said the GEFS schooled it and the other said both the GEFS and EPS clearly saw it well 15 days out. I’m guessing if you scroll back through HM’s twitter there’s an answer there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, this weekend was a mini melt. I'll go full tilt if the EPS furnace verifies. I understand this does suck but we are at the mercy of waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nah, this weekend was a mini melt. I'll go full tilt if the EPS furnace verifies. i am sure you will say week 3 looks like a weenies dream tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I just asked two people and got two different answers. One said the GEFS schooled it and the other said both the GEFS and EPS clearly saw it well 15 days out. I’m guessing if you scroll back through HM’s twitter there’s an answer there Thanks...much appreciated. I'll just take this as the GEFS is always right when it comes to the strat effects! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not a bad gradient/wave type of pattern. Reminds me a little of Jan/Feb 2014. More importantly... the pac jet is cut off by d8-9. D10 has split flow... That look is not bad... not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: i am sure you will say week 3 looks like a weenies dream tomorrow evening If that's how it looks I'll say it but I stopped trusting the weeklies completely recently. Week 3 performance has been terrible and that's the highest skill beyond regular ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The upper level ridge building along the northern Rockies/west coast of Canada and the closed ULL off the coast of San Diego are spitting the flow. I see now. Thanks for that explanation and chart that illustrates it perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 31 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Definitely can’t toss the EPS especially when it’s been this consistent. Watch me. Tossing it so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Watch me. Tossing it so hard. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Tossing like Aragorn. Don't tell the elf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Why? I tossed it so far that the EPS is no longer on Wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 A week ago the EPS had a great look. It busted. It can bust. I don't know if it will here but it's been awful at range. The heights are still rising in the NW day 15 but it sucks waiting a week longer then the gfs to get things started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Tossing it like Uncle Rico throwing a football over them mountains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just seems silly to me to toss a superior model because it doesn’t show what we want. I’m well aware of why it could be wrong but you’d expect to start seeing it look better...not get worse. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Just seems silly to me to toss a superior model because it doesn’t show what we want. I’m well aware of why it could be wrong but you’d expect to start seeing it look better...not get worse. We’ll see. LeBatard reference: You don't get the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Just seems silly to me to toss a superior model because it doesn’t show what we want. You're new at this game I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 EPS is basically saying that the SSW and MJO have nothing to do with this disaster of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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