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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Amazing how quick things can change when the pac jet gets deflected away from a direct shot into the west. Euro op was a very good run imo

Really encouraging run today and it’d argue we flip the switch from shutout to trackable.  Hopefully EPS continues the trend...we’ll know soon.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS looking even better with agreement on the TPV making a trip south. Some nice gradient patterns in the mix here...

f360.gif

We need that SE ridge to maintain a little flex and not get completely crushed then yes this has all the markings of an epic gradient or sw flow event pattern setting up.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not a bad gradient/wave type of pattern. Reminds me a little of Jan/Feb 2014. More importantly... the pac jet is cut off by d8-9. D10 has split flow...

4mqbGom.jpg

Gonna ask a dumb question here, Bob.  What is the mechanism that produces that split flow?  By that, I mean, what feature over the intermountain West are the 200 HPA winds flowing around?

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Gonna ask a dumb question here, Bob.  What is the mechanism that produces that split flow?  By that, I mean, what feature over the intermountain West are the 200 HPA winds flowing around?

I'm not Bob, but thats a reflection of NJ and STJ meeting in the midwest and one supplies cold...other supplies moisture.  I'll let you figure out which :).

 

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1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Gonna ask a dumb question here, Bob.  What is the mechanism that produces that split flow?  By that, I mean, what feature over the intermountain West are the 200 HPA winds flowing around?

The upper level ridge building along the northern Rockies/west coast of Canada and the closed ULL off the coast of San Diego are spitting the flow. 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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@frd I saw that post by Simon Lee.  Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?).  Reversal all the way down....  Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward.  Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern.  It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo.  

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@frd I saw that post by Simon Lee.  Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?).  Reversal all the way down....  Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward.  Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern.  It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo.  

I dont think the EPS will show much improvement  today, because I am hearing after the 15 th it goes back to zonal, but Bob can address that. Not sure whether that statement is accurate.    

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1 minute ago, frd said:

I dont think the EPS will show much improvement  today, because I am hearing after the 15 th it goes back to zonal, but Bob can address that. Not sure whether that statement is accurate.    

It's certainly not much better through 318.  Almost completely opposite of the GEFS. +EPO, +NAO, -PNA. 

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It's certainly not much better through 318.  Almost completely opposite of the GEFS. +EPO, +NAO, -PNA. 

Every time it looks like the ridging wants to build in AK, it just gets beaten down.  Quite the relentless PAC on the EPS.  The Euro OP blinked first...maybe EPS will be next (at 00z?)

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9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@frd I saw that post by Simon Lee.  Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?).  Reversal all the way down....  Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward.  Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern.  It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo.  

Yes, I believe overall the trends for downward propagation have improved. If so, still will take time to get into the models. Location specifics also hard to pin point , but some models long range seem to create the cold air source near Hudson Bay.    

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Just now, nj2va said:

Every time it looks like the ridging wants to build in AK, it just gets beaten down.  Quite the relentless PAC on the EPS.  

The differences up top are pretty staggering between the two.  Euro has a +NAO throughout the eps run.

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