psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: That's what I was wondering. The look out west is ok. Why the ridge in the east? I'll be honest I'm not sure. There is a weak trough coming into the SW in the stj but with a split flow and -epo and nao the ridge response to that should be flat and muted. Not some monster SE ridge. Maybe someone else has a better take because I'm a bit perplexed why the gefs keeps putting a ridge there with that longwage pattern everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: No it still flips the Pacific around day 10. Beautiful epo ridge. But it pops a huge SE ridge as a system comes into the SW. That's unusual for a split flow with blocking. If we get that pattern and a ridge sticks in the east anyways I'm throwing my hands up and saying we're cursed and it's the Debs who are picky about snows fault. They angered the snow gods and now they smite us. Yep. Tough sledding this year for whatever reason. You would think we would have negative departures in regards to temps with the HL blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My guess is the typical step down progression as the TPV gets displaced towards Hudson. Should fight off the "easy" ridge in the east. I can envision the cold boundary carving its way south with a series of shortwaves/fronts. Probably not enough to avoid west tracks until later in Jan though. I also think SNE will be hit one or more times before we get a chance at something. Yea fits climo. Like you have repeatedly reminded they often score before us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: You’d think given the look in the high latitudes that there would be a better height reflection in the east but who knows this year. So incredibly frustrating. The east ridge has been showing up on the last several GEFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea fits climo. Like you have repeatedly reminded they often score before us. Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The east ridge has been showing up on the last several GEFS runs My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. There could be a minority with monster ridges skewing the mean if the majority simply show normalish heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. I guess the GEFS look in the 10 to 16 isn't a shut out pattern? Atleast not in January. I'm assuming in December it would of been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. Call me at 9-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. When I saw this panel.....it doesnt look as warm as the gefs are depicting. Also, not a bad pressure panel for prime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag I'm just so ready to get rid of this shutout pattern. I'm not asking for perfection lol. Just a chance at a small event would be nice at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag I think this is how to interpret it. I also think even on the means the AN heights will disappear on future runs if the look up top is legit, and NA blocking persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm just so ready to get rid of this shutout pattern. I'm not asking for perfection lol. Just a chance at a small event would be nice at this point. Yea man, me too. This period we've been stuck in really sucks. You know winter is dead when ALL discussion is about d10-15. lol GEFS/GEPS are both showing a workable pattern d10+. The EPS is clearly the worst height pattern but at least it's been shifting a little better each run. An advisory event would do wonders for our sub. Just need to pass time for another week or so and pray things shuffle like the GEFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 FV3 looking a little chilly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: FV3 looking a little chilly... We need to put a wager on that look. How about a DD gift card :-) I still say when the dust settles there should be some drool worthy looks on various HL panels. ( I pray ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 This happening ups the ante if it happens. Some strat pros outside of just Judah ( thats for you Bob ) say there may indeed be a downward propagation. ( of course too ealry still for location specifics ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: We need to put a wager on that look. How about a DD gift card :-) I still say when the dust settles there should be some drool worthy looks on various HL panels. ( I pray ) Looks like there a decent sized camp in the ens that displace the TPV similar to the Fv3. I like the mechanism on the Fv3 with the EPO ridge extending poleward along with the NAO ridge extending westward and creating a legit block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Call me at 9-14I’ll call you at Day 6 with e2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. Agreed, but as I know by and large you agree, I think we need to sign a waiver when looking beyond 240 for the rest of the year. Too much time/energy is "wasted" of late, as it really just mucks up the joint. I love it as much as any, but i think one needs to take a look between 7-10 days at all things you deem holy with weather maps/guidance, and make your own assumptions/guesses accordingly (unless one thinks its "real good") then share away so we can troll the heck outta said person. Just a playful thought....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Geps looks very similar to gefs day 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Geps looks very similar to gefs day 10-15 GEPS puts up the EPO ridge by d9. If/when the EPO ridge builds we are probably out of the shutout pattern. Can't happen soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Euro is honing in on a pretty good hit for the NE next week. Good sign we're changing gears here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Euro d9 moving in the direction of where the GEFS/GEPS are going. I might let a little optimism back in if the EPS can make another move towards greener pastures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 euro looks like its caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Euro bringing the cold into the northern plains too at the end of the run. -20 2m temps into northern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Euro has snow in the deep south next Saturday(the 12th)(Miss,alabama,etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro d9 moving in the direction of where the GEFS/GEPS are going. I might let a little optimism back in if the EPS can make another move towards greener pastures. Seeing a combination of the Euro corecting for the MJO and the manifestation of the building Greenland block, along with the effects of the start event being seen or modeled correctly, the EPS should look better today and in the coming days. If we get the cold to continue to build in Central Canada near Hudson Bay, and hopefully get some undercutting / split flow, it will be money time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Euro bringing the cold into the northern plains too at the end of the run. -20 2m temps into northern MN. Amazing how quick things can change when the pac jet gets deflected away from a direct shot into the west. Euro op was a very good run imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: We're losing the GEFS. Certainly not a cold look at the end. Yep a cross polar flow straight into the central US in mid January certainly is warm. If u buy those temp anomalies you posted based on that 500 map then I have oceanfront property for sale in Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has snow in the deep south next Saturday(the 12th)(Miss,alabama,etc) It's a retro 80's winter enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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