yoda Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Super Yuck 12 minutes ago, CT Rain said: F this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's close to a lock that we'll get digital snow next 24 hours. The real question is whether you believe it or not... Won’t believe until the winter storm warning goes into effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Super Yuck That look is nothing new. EPS is incrementally progressing towards a more serviceable pattern, but it wont be until beyond the 20th if recent runs are correct. I suspect odds are the GEFS will cave somewhat to the EPS, rather than the EPS speeding up the progression to a better pattern. But yeah, its going to be a while yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sometimes I feel like I need that little orphan Annie decoder from A Christmas Story to read his posts...but over the years in my quest to research and decode his posts I have learned a ton about things I didn't even know I didn't know. BE SURE TO DRINK YOUR OVALTINE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Won’t believe until the winter storm warning goes into effect Last March I was forecasted to get 3-6" as a storm was already underway and got less than in inch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, H2O said: BE SURE TO DRINK YOUR OVALTINE That's better than the models have been spitting out lately. I can't repeat what their decoded message has been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Last March I was forecasted to get 3-6" as a storm was already underway and got less than in inch lol That's why we need to get something going over the next 8 weeks. It's too easy in Mar for storms to find a way to screw everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last March I was forecasted to get 3-6" as a storm was already underway and got less than in inch lol I forget, was that not the time Dewey Beach scored again? I thought there were several high impact beach events last year and durig the past last few years in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That's why we need to get something going over the next 8 weeks. It's too easy in Mar for storms to find a way to screw everything up. Agreed but one thing that gives me hope is even if the speculation of a Nina lag and muted nino is correct we are essentially sitting at exactly the same spot we were around Feb 15 last year. A major Sswe combined with a mjo entering cold phases. And after the typical 2 week lag we got the great pattern in march. But it was too late. We got several very legit threats and hit one and got a minor glancing blow from another. But we are way ahead of the game this time. Even if the flip doesn't get right until around Feb 1 we probably do ok if the idea of epo and nao blocking is right. People can poo poo late snow all they want but if we get a favorable pattern for all of Feb and maybe into March we should get some hits. That's still prime climo. Especially with nao blocking which correlates here even more later in season as wavelengths shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Interesting adjustment on the 12z vs 6z gfs op irt next week. Pumping a big ridge out west, strengthening the neg nao, energy coming much farther south. If these adjustments continue wont be too long til we have energy coming south of us ala 0z euro control. Eta: cant add trend gif attm due to attachments maxed out sorry dont have time to delete stuff right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But we are way ahead of the game this time. Even if the flip doesn't get right until around Feb 1 we probably do ok if the idea of epo and nao blocking is right. People can poo poo late snow all they want but if we get a favorable pattern for all of Feb and maybe into March we should get some hits. That's still prime climo. Especially with nao blocking which correlates here even more later in season as wavelengths shorten. This is one reason I think the odds of colder risks for March are higher, and I have seen snow on the ground in March with temps in the teens , March can be bad. Sun angle or no snow angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: I forget, was that not the time Dewey Beach scored again? I thought there were several high impact beach events last year and durig the past last few years in general. No it was the miller b hybrid that crushed NJ in early March. The day before all the guidance shifted the deform banding west and crushed northeast MD pretty good. It was universal. From the euro to gfs and nam they all had my area in about .7-1" qpf that night. Then when 0z came in everything shifted 50 miles northeast and I got fringed. Miller b storms are like that. Because they develop late and explosively it's very volatile and leads to more busts then other types. Not all bad. We have had some noteworthy good busts with miller b storms. Feb 10, 2010...One of the Feb 1996 storms was a surprise miller b that was supposed to hit NJ and crushed us with 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 In reality next week's threat will probably end up a New England storm but imo that us a step in the right direction irt the pattern change and our chances moving along into the 2nd half of January. Once we start to see areas up N cash in our areas will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Interesting adjustment on the 12z vs 6z gfs op irt next week. Pumping a big ridge out west, strengthening the neg nao, energy coming much farther south. If these adjustments continue wont be too long til we have energy coming south of us ala 0z euro control. Eta: cant add trend gif attm due to attachments maxed out sorry dont have time to delete stuff right now. looks good. LP has dropped south the the US/Can Border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: looks good. LP has dropped south the the US/Can Border Wouldn’t want to miss out on more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Finally a post of his that I fully understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Jandurin said: When he barks I feel a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Finally a post of his that I fully understand. Thank you for posting that. I got it too. HM doesn't say things just off the cuff so that has my attention for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Very interested in today's EPS to see whether there are continued positive trends here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, frd said: Very interested in today's EPS to see whether there are continued positive trends here. Blocking events are notorious for not being modeled well even in the med range. GEFS does decent up until d7 but falls apart with verification d7+ All the pieces required are there.... weak/split/warm SPV, no tendencies for a strong +AO/NAO, nino climo, etc. Will it happen? I do think blocking is on the way and will probably hang around for awhile. Models aren't going to do well with the front side of the change. If/when the AO goes negative in the short range or real time we'll probably start seeing a lot of good things going forward. We really need it to happen this month though because it's pretty normal for the MA to fail during the front side of a blocking event. If it gets started too late the clock doesn't have enough hours left to stage a big comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 When he barks I feel a lot better. How is he barking. He basically called the late dec early jan a big bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 In the end the Euro did well with the reversal date We get some downward action going and favoring our area, I imagine we will be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When he barks I feel a lot better. How is he barking. He basically called the late dec early jan a big bust Correct, and at least HM is honest, as his call was not correct either, he did say if pressure continues on the SPV end of December would be nasty as hell. That SPV pressure did happen, but the cold did not happen. I group HM's forecast possibly on the same thought processes as Isotherm' s as a degree. They mention the same players I believe HM's other posts do indicate clearly he thinks winter is NOT over. l I take that the MJO / Start / tropcial forcing / Hadley cell interplay and relationship interfered on a otherwise potentially promising window in mid to late December outside of the early Dec lower Mid Atlantic Snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 We're losing the GEFS. Certainly not a cold look at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Amazing continuity run to run and from op to ensembles on gfs. The ridge in the east day 15 is "annoying" given the near perfect look with the epo, ao, nao but I have to suspect it's overdone or short lived given that look. Everything screams there should be a trough in the east there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Amazing continuity run to run and from op to ensembles on gfs. The ridge in the east day 15 is "annoying" given the near perfect look with the epo, ao, nao but I have to suspect it's overdone or short lived given that look. Everything screams there should be a trough in the east there. That's what I was wondering. The look out west is ok. Why the ridge in the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: We're losing the GEFS. Certainly not a cold look at the end. No it still flips the Pacific around day 10. Beautiful epo ridge. But it pops a huge SE ridge as a system comes into the SW. That's unusual for a split flow with blocking. If we get that pattern and a ridge sticks in the east anyways I'm throwing my hands up and saying we're cursed and it's the Debs who are picky about snows fault. They angered the snow gods and now they smite us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: We're losing the GEFS. Certainly not a cold look at the end. You’d think given the look in the high latitudes that there would be a better height reflection in the east but who knows this year. So incredibly frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Amazing continuity run to run and from op to ensembles on gfs. The ridge in the east day 15 is "annoying" given the near perfect look with the epo, ao, nao but I have to suspect it's overdone or short lived given that look. Everything screams there should be a trough in the east there. Its probably a combo of the EPAC ridge axis being a bit too far west, PAC jet undercutting, and NA ridging is a tad weak/too far north. Correctable with minor tweaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Amazing continuity run to run and from op to ensembles on gfs. The ridge in the east day 15 is "annoying" given the near perfect look with the epo, ao, nao but I have to suspect it's overdone or short lived given that look. Everything screams there should be a trough in the east there. My guess is the typical step down progression as the TPV gets displaced towards Hudson. Should fight off the "easy" ridge in the east. I can envision the cold boundary carving its way south with a series of shortwaves/fronts. Probably not enough to avoid west tracks until later in Jan though. I also think SNE will be hit one or more times before we get a chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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