January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[pasnownut]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, reason i'm bitter is because right around christmas both the eps and gefs showed a half decent non-shutout pattern. Wasnt great but at least kept the door open. Watching that transform into a Pac noro virus vomit pattern sucked. I hate hopeless shutout patterns and we've been in one for 2 weeks and are staring down the barrell of at least 10 more days of it. 

Now the EPS insists we dont make any progress for another 20 days. Do I like how the gefs looks last few days? Oh hell yea I do but it's very hard to be optimistic after watching the rug pull in the last week. I won't be optimistic again until things look good in the med range.

You nailed it. Right with ya. We just had a rug yanked an I don’t care how plush the next one looks or feels like. I’ll be cautious. That’s why I’m not paying too much attention right now. Needs to be well inside 240 with MJO headed to 8 and pos pna or neg ao/nao for me to mentally invest. 

[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Even in the shutout pattern the ensembles somehow spit out a mecs/ hecs . I give you P003 and it's only 7 days away 

 

Storm thread? 

[tombo82685]

We all saw the eps in the long range and they looked like poo. I think though it's also good to note trends from one run to the previous.  If you compare todays run to 0z there is a lot going on. There is definitely a favorable trend here where the eps are backing off on the lower hgts just off the coast which is making for a better trend in the pna. There is certainly some disagreement going on whether to have all that energy sitting off the coast or not.  If all that energy continues to trend less and less you should notice a more meridonal flow instead of all this pacific jet vomit. The more energy bundled off  the coast will bring a flatter flow and pac air. Look at the the notable trend here at day 10, 13, and 15. You can see the better ridging out west pulls the lower hgts towards the east coast which is what you would expect with a phase 7 look. It even closely resembles a phase 7 el nino look. So maybe the eps are starting to pick up on a better mjo signal and not trying to kill it. I'm just not certain if I buy the look of the eps at the end. My only though is the reason it's doing that is because its killing the amplitude of the mjo in phase 7 which I think is wrong.   Hemispherically speaking we still aren't seeing the -ao signal show up on the eps. They do pop it for a couple days around day 10/11 then kill it and bring below normal hgts back. Thats needs to change too.

now look at the euro back on dec 20, constantly being to bearish on the mjo and not seeing the full amplitude of the wave propagating though. Now look at todays run. Note the continued correction towards more amplification. So I think as the euro continues to adjust for this we see better looks, or atleast I hope. Anyways, just putting some food for thought out there. 

old

new

[winterymix]

I looked for some analog years in Baltimore history that featured just a bit of snow Nov-Dec followed by the mean climo snow all coming in Jan-Feb-Mar.

Please look at the select list and let us know if this sort of back load has a good probability for the remainder of our winter for our region.

1921-22   Jan 31.3    Feb 4.4     Mar  0.1

1963-64   Jan 10.3    Feb  18.2  Mar  13.2

1977-78   Jan 12.4    Feb  12.3  Mar  8.5

1986-87   Jan  25.1   Feb  10.1

1995-96   Jan  32.6   Feb  19.0   Mar   7.6

2002-03   Jan  5.3     Feb  40.5   Mar  2.6

2015-16   Jan  30      Feb  2.6    Mar   2.5

 

 

 

[ravensrule]

30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

We all saw the eps in the long range and they looked like poo. I think though it's also good to note trends from one run to the previous.  If you compare todays run to 0z there is a lot going on. There is definitely a favorable trend here where the eps are backing off on the lower hgts just off the coast which is making for a better trend in the pna. There is certainly some disagreement going on whether to have all that energy sitting off the coast or not.  If all that energy continues to trend less and less you should notice a more meridonal flow instead of all this pacific jet vomit. The more energy bundled off  the coast will bring a flatter flow and pac air. Look at the the notable trend here at day 10, 13, and 15. You can see the better ridging out west pulls the lower hgts towards the east coast which is what you would expect with a phase 7 look. It even closely resembles a phase 7 el nino look. So maybe the eps are starting to pick up on a better mjo signal and not trying to kill it. I'm just not certain if I buy the look of the eps at the end. My only though is the reason it's doing that is because its killing the amplitude of the mjo in phase 7 which I think is wrong.   Hemispherically speaking we still aren't seeing the -ao signal show up on the eps. They do pop it for a couple days around day 10/11 then kill it and bring below normal hgts back. Thats needs to change too.

HOLY COW. Welcome back, we have missed your posts greatly. Nothing like the old days with your 0Z EURO PBP. I waited up for those with baited breath. Don't be a stranger even though you have your own site. 

[nj2va]

18z FV3 has a near miss to the south on the 15th and front end thump on the 17th.  Coincides with the calls for the pattern to flip on the 15th.

[PCT_ATC]

17 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

HOLY COW. Welcome back, we have missed your posts greatly. Nothing like the old days with your 0Z EURO PBP. I waited up for those with baited breath. Don't be a stranger even though you have your own 

Have a link to his site?  

[Bob Chill]

Here's what the CanSips says for Jan. Not a shutout pattern and a lot better than what we're currently dealing with. Implies that the gefs is right with the -epo and tpv making a move towards Hudson.

 

Feb is better

[RDM]

This is pretty amazing and says a lot, much of which would generate commentary not suitable for younger readers.  The absence of any appreciable precip anywhere in CONUS is pathetic.  There's a few very light showers in the SE and a smattering of flurries here and there in the Rockies.  Otherwise, nada.  

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, winterymix said:

I looked for some analog years in Baltimore history that featured just a bit of snow Nov-Dec followed by the mean climo snow all coming in Jan-Feb-Mar.

Please look at the select list and let us know if this sort of back load has a good probability for the remainder of our winter for our region.

1921-22   Jan 31.3    Feb 4.4     Mar  0.1

1963-64   Jan 10.3    Feb  18.2  Mar  13.2

1977-78   Jan 12.4    Feb  12.3  Mar  8.5

1986-87   Jan  25.1   Feb  10.1

1995-96   Jan  32.6   Feb  19.0   Mar   7.6

2002-03   Jan  5.3     Feb  40.5   Mar  2.6

2015-16   Jan  30      Feb  2.6    Mar   2.5

 

 

 

Where are 1965/66, 1981/2, 1992/3 and 2014/15 on that list?  Just to name a few off the top of my head your missing...years where bwi had very little snow going into January and beat climo. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's what the CanSips says for Jan. Not a shutout pattern and a lot better than what we're currently dealing with. Implies that the gefs is right with the -epo and tpv making a move towards Hudson.

 

Feb is better

Keep in mind the front 10-15 days of January would skew the mean for the month...it's possible the pattern looks great the last 10-15 days.  Can't tell from the monthly mean but its servicable as you say.  February also might be better than the mean as its likely if the pattern sets in mid to late January that it breaks down sometime in mid February.  Historically these nino blocking patters that set in January break mid to lat feb.  If they don't set in until Feb like 58 or 69 then they last into March. 

[psuhoffman]

This is how the GEFS was breaking down the pacific pattern around day 9

This looks familiar...same pac crap pattern we have been in for weeks

But a day later the GEFS shifts the ridge in the central PAC northeast and starts to break down/split the trough off the west coast which breaks the pacific firehose connection into the CONUS. 

Another day later and the trough has now been split and the epo ridge is going up.

A couple days after that we see the result.  The epo ridge goes up, energy is still crashing into the west but now it doesn't hurt us because we have a split flow, the shift east of the ridge in the pacific into the epo domain has cut off the firehose and now energy coming in has to cut under in a split flow...the dominant flow into our area is out of the northwest...this is how we get some of our big snows.

 

[psuhoffman]

The euro is doing the same thing only 5 days slower.  The EPS starts the process day 14...and only goes to 15 not 16 so we can't see it complete.  We did on the weeklies though so lets start with that and see the same exact evolution in the pacific as the GEFS only 5 days behind it. 

Here is the same pac crap puke pattern

A day later and the same thing the GEFS was doing...the central pacific ridge shifts northeast and starts to cut off the trough off the west coast

A day later and the ridge has completely cut off the trough and is now building into the EPO domain.  The trough shifts further west off Alaska after that and the EPO ridge builds developing a split flow and we are in business. 

Here we can see the EPS at day 13 with the same crap pac look

but look by day 15 what is happening...the ridge is shifting and the heights are rising near Alaska and western Canada.  If this went a day further we would see the EPO ridge starting to develop. 

The GEFS and EPS aren't showing completely different pattern progressions, they are showing the same, they only disagree on the timing by 5 days.  Probably a compromise is the best solution.  But what we want is for this look, the shifting of the central pacific ridge (probably linked to a shifting in the tropical forcing in the pacific) to move forward in time across all guidance.  Once we get ridging into the epo domain to cut off the pacific jet blasting into the CONUS we will likely see the cascade of events needed to establish a favorable pattern for snow, and it could happen relatively fast once that pacific flow shifts. 

 

 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro is doing the same thing only 5 days slower.  The EPS starts the process day 14...and only goes to 15 not 16 so we can't see it complete.  We did on the weeklies though so lets start with that and see the same exact evolution in the pacific as the GEFS only 5 days behind it. 

Here is the same pac crap puke pattern

A day later and the same thing the GEFS was doing...the central pacific ridge shifts northeast and starts to cut off the trough off the west coast

A day later and the ridge has completely cut off the trough and is now building into the EPO domain.  The trough shifts further west off Alaska after that and the EPO ridge builds developing a split flow and we are in business. 

Here we can see the EPS at day 13 with the same crap pac look

but look by day 15 what is happening...the ridge is shifting and the heights are rising near Alaska and western Canada.  If this went a day further we would see the EPO ridge starting to develop. 

The GEFS and EPS aren't showing completely different pattern progressions, they are showing the same, they only disagree on the timing by 5 days.  Probably a compromise is the best solution.  But what we want is for this look, the shifting of the central pacific ridge (probably linked to a shifting in the tropical forcing in the pacific) to move forward in time across all guidance.  Once we get ridging into the epo domain to cut off the pacific jet blasting into the CONUS we will likely see the cascade of events needed to establish a favorable pattern for snow, and it could happen relatively fast once that pacific flow shifts. 

 

 

So it looks like Jan 15 give or a take a few days we could start to see a good pattern start to take hold. Which has been the timeframe we had been looking at for a while. I think the ugly pattern we are in just makes the wait that much harder for me and I’m sure many others.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

So it looks like Jan 15 give or a take a few days we could start to see a good pattern start to take hold. Which has been the timeframe we had been looking at for a while. I think the ugly pattern we are in just makes the wait that much harder for me and I’m sure many others.  

For sure...it would be one thing if we were in just a bad pattern but there were occasional fluke threats here or there to hold us over.  A front end 1-2", a back end snow event... some clippers...anything.  Even a random lake effect snowshower.  But the pacific jet has been on roids and just evacuated all cold from the CONUS and left us with the mother of all shutouts.  It hasn't been some epic torch, the constant barrage of STJ systems has kept that from happening, but its been too warm to entertain any snow chances. 

[SnowGolfBro]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For sure...it would be one thing if we were in just a bad pattern but there were occasional fluke threats here or there to hold us over.  A front end 1-2", a back end snow event... some clippers...anything.  Even a random lake effect snowshower.  But the pacific jet has been on roids and just evacuated all cold from the CONUS and left us with the mother of all shutouts.  It hasn't been some epic torch, the constant barrage of STJ systems has kept that from happening, but its been too warm to entertain any snow chances. 

Exactly. I’d be happy if it would be cold enough in Canaan to run the damn snow makers this weekend but that’s not looking good either lol

[psuhoffman]

 

This would lead somewhere good a few days later.  Gfs breaks the PAC pattern around day 10 then starts building cold to our north initially but with that epo and nao it's coming down soon after that panel. 

 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is it all the US or just our source region? I mean, there are parts of the Midwest pulling temps of -20. 

There have been some transient cold shots to glance the interior northern tier but it's running above normal about everywhere the last 2 weeks and will the nect 10 days. 

[psuhoffman]

Loaded pattern. 

[Bob Chill]

Quite the coincidence. Fantasy gfs looks exactly like the Jan cansips. Lol

 

[Ji]

Soi fell to almost -10. Third straight neg day

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Quite the coincidence. Fantasy gfs looks exactly like the Jan cansips. Lol

 

It's an op at range...but where the gfs leaves off is loaded going forward. Those systems crashing into California undercutting with that blocking and vortex stuck in Quebec. Only a matter of time before one times up. 

[Ji]

Loaded pattern. 

Jan 23-24 blizzard is my extrapolation. Interesting event happened recently on those dates

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Soi fell to almost -10. Third straight neg day

Baby steps 

[Ji]

Gefs says we will be in phase 7 by Friday lol and get stuck there

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gefs says we will be in phase 7 by Friday lol and get stuck there

It was doing that in 6 last week. Baby steps 

[Bob Chill]

 -40 close to the US border is impressive even for an h384 fantasy panel

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was doing that in 6 last week. Baby steps 

It gets close to P8 so we should score a 1-3" deal before the torch comes back

[Ji]

Gefs pattern change now by jan 12

[cbmclean]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was doing that in 6 last week. Baby steps 

Someone on here was saying that Phase 7 isn't bad in January.  I can't remember who it was or and they didn't mention what evidence they had to base it on.