January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Wow...never did I think I would see the day when @psuhoffman would be extrapolating the 384 op GFS. We have arrived folks. 

 

We're having fun. It's annoying when there are legit things to track and analyze but people are being debs and filling the thread with emotional garbage. But right now just sucks. There is nothing to discuss legitimately so why not have fun with it. I'll get more serious when we have threats to track. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

18z GFS ensembles: It's not looking good. The +PNA/-NAO signal earlier is evaporating (look at how tropically warm it was today), and the long range is just a Stratosphere warming signal. I've seen this before, everytime there is a 10mb warming, the 15 day shows Arctic blocking.. it's a tropical pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GEFS doesn’t blink and looks great.  Quite the model war.

And what's the record look like when America goes to war with Europe?

[pasnownut]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except it ends about to torch us again. 

And a week ago we thought next week was gonna rock. I agree with Bob...anything beyond 7 days is just worthless right now. 

[nj2va]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

And what's the record look like when America goes to war with Europe?

Can we phone a friend and ask George Washington?

[Snowstorm5921]

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

18z GFS ensembles: It's not looking good. The +PNA/-NAO signal earlier is evaporating (look at how tropically warm it was today), and the long range is just a Stratosphere warming signal. I've seen this before, everytime there is a 10mb warming, the 15 day shows Arctic blocking.. it's a tropical pattern. 

Agreed.  Anything is better than the pattern we’re in now but the GEFS are far from exciting.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gefs 324 is nice

 

19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks just fine to me lol

Oh come on I was working the crowd. Couldn't you have at least let my panic inducing post about the 384 op percolate for a bit???

2 serous thoughts... I've never seen the gefs this insistent and consistent at uber long range and it's at a time when the EPS is like hell no. Lol. 

And we keep getting perfect h5 passes even during this crap pattern. If we can just get some cold...any cold.....like come on!

[clskinsfan]

If nothing else the models are hinting at some blocking in the medium range. I will worry about the long range in a couple of weeks. Give me a -NAO and I will take my chances from there.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

18z GFS ensembles: It's not looking good. The +PNA/-NAO signal earlier is evaporating (look at how tropically warm it was today), and the long range is just a Stratosphere warming signal. I've seen this before, everytime there is a 10mb warming, the 15 day shows Arctic blocking.. it's a tropical pattern. 

Stormtracker knows what you should do...

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Agreed.  Anything is better than the pattern we’re in now but the GEFS are far from exciting.

Ugh Chuck found a friend 

[Ji]

If nothing else the models are hinting at some blocking in the medium range. I will worry about the long range in a couple of weeks. Give me a -NAO and I will take my chances from there.

We have a nao now and we are in a shitout pattern

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

18z GFS ensembles: It's not looking good. The +PNA/-NAO signal earlier is evaporating (look at how tropically warm it was today), and the long range is just a Stratosphere warming signal. I've seen this before, everytime there is a 10mb warming, the 15 day shows Arctic blocking.. it's a tropical pattern. 

Randy, can I tell him? Please?

[Prestige Worldwide]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If nothing else the models are hinting at some blocking in the medium range. I will worry about the long range in a couple of weeks. Give me a -NAO and I will take my chances from there.

We have a nao now and we are in a shitout pattern

I see what you did there. That’s no typo. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If nothing else the models are hinting at some blocking in the medium range. I will worry about the long range in a couple of weeks. Give me a -NAO and I will take my chances from there.

We have a nao now and we are in a shitout pattern

Ha I see what u did there

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Prestige Worldwide said:

I see what you did there. That’s no typo. 

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If nothing else the models are hinting at some blocking in the medium range. I will worry about the long range in a couple of weeks. Give me a -NAO and I will take my chances from there.

We have a nao now and we are in a shitout pattern

I'm copying this to your church page

[Wonderdog]

42 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

And a week ago we thought next week was gonna rock. I agree with Bob...anything beyond 7 days is just worthless right now. 

This is nothing new. 

[Bob Chill]

57 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

And a week ago we thought next week was gonna rock. I agree with Bob...anything beyond 7 days is just worthless right now. 

Yea, reason i'm bitter is because right around christmas both the eps and gefs showed a half decent non-shutout pattern. Wasnt great but at least kept the door open. Watching that transform into a Pac noro virus vomit pattern sucked. I hate hopeless shutout patterns and we've been in one for 2 weeks and are staring down the barrell of at least 10 more days of it. 

Now the EPS insists we dont make any progress for another 20 days. Do I like how the gefs looks last few days? Oh hell yea I do but it's very hard to be optimistic after watching the rug pull in the last week. I won't be optimistic again until things look good in the med range.

[nj2va]

What’s interesting is that the pieces that start shifting the PAC pattern show up next week on the GEFS.  It seems like a small ridge forms north of AK early next week which is the first domino to fall that then builds into the AO domain while ridging also subsequently builds on the west coast.  

If GEFS is right, that feature isn’t fantasy land.

[Bob Chill]

Gefs is encouraging in that there really isnt much spread d15 with heights. Most have a trough in the east and also have the TPV around or south of Hudson. Oddly, none of these members look like the eps 15d mean.

I'll admit this panel is encouraging. Maybe the gefs scores a big win here. We'll know in just 3 days or so.

[dallen7908]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Again, not getting too far out like mid month, but important changes consistently showing now within around 10 days. One important feature I've been watching is the ridge N of HI finally breaking down. Actually takes an interesting progression and moves into the EPO area building heights there like a flip of a switch. This scenario has repeatedly been hinted at and while still a long way out is now within about 10 day which is *fairly* reasonable for key pattern features being shown. 

Thanks for stepping up and taking over as bannerman for a mid-month pattern change ... may the odds be ever in your favor

[wasnow215]

Just checking in to see if anyone was excited about the Cohen post on Twitter earlier about the PV split. He’s pretty bullish about it. Doesn’t look like from glancing at the last few pages that anyone is buyin though lol. Thinks EC effects could poss start in two weeks or so.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Oh come on I was working the crowd. Couldn't you have at least let my panic inducing post about the 384 op percolate for a bit???

2 serous thoughts... I've never seen the gefs this insistent and consistent at uber long range and it's at a time when the EPS is like hell no. Lol. 

And we keep getting perfect h5 passes even during this crap pattern. If we can just get some cold...any cold.....like come on!

PSU, weren't you speculating earlier about God getting smiting the MA?

 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Just checking in to see if anyone was excited about the Cohen post on Twitter earlier about the PV split. He’s pretty bullish about it. Doesn’t look like from glancing at the last few pages that anyone is buyin though lol.

Not many cohen fans around here. His track record since the SAI went mainstream stinks. He's also quite the spin doctor when things went wrong multiple years in a row

[wasnow215]

Ok very good. Thank you!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing is.... this type of winter (in general) is by far the most common type we get. Lots of deadspace and short windows of good opportunities. This one is a little worse because except for early Dec it's been a shutout pattern with no hope. We typically get more chances of a fluke or lucky event. We cant even get close to that. 

We do get some amazing winters sometimes so it gives us hope at the beginning of every year but failure and disappointment is kinda status quo more than a punishment

I would call our good snow years more "streaky" than I would calling the bad ones status quo. I've been scouring the BWI snow records from 1883 onward...and there definitely seems to be trend of the good ones coming in a cluster, followed by a cluster of bad ones, lol But the good news is, only three times in 120+ years did we see more than 3 sub-climo winters in a row. And it was also a bit uncommon to see a really good year followed by a bad year, followed by a good year...It's always good a for 2-3 years, then bad for about the same (except for a few runs like the 60s where we strung together a bunch of climo+ years!)

By that logic...I'm more optimistic for next winter (as it seems three consecutive bad ones is the most common)

[cbmclean]

9 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Just checking in to see if anyone was excited about the Cohen post on Twitter earlier about the PV split. He’s pretty bullish about it. Doesn’t look like from glancing at the last few pages that anyone is buyin though lol. Thinks EC effects could poss start in two weeks or so.

Well, from what I have seen written:

1. Not all SSWEs propagate to the surface.

2. Not all SSWEs which propagate will impact here (instead of say Eurasia).

3. Even if it does impact us here there can be a sizable lag (2 weeks to a month).

Once we see positive impacts inside day 10, I am sure that many will be more excited.

Of course if we do see blocking, I am not sure if there is any way to know if it came from the SSWE or not 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

What’s interesting is that the pieces that start shifting the PAC pattern show up next week on the GEFS.  It seems like a small ridge forms north of AK early next week which is the first domino to fall that then builds into the AO domain while ridging also subsequently builds on the west coast.  

If GEFS is right, that feature isn’t fantasy land.

The euro is starting to do the exact same thing only day 15 vs day 9. But they both evolve the Pacific pattern exactly the same way only a week apart. My guess is they are both following the same progression wrt the forcing shift in the Pacific but obviously disagree on the timing. 

I was going to make a post highlighting how the PAC breaks down and what to look for if it's real in a few mins after I put the kids to bed. 

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro is starting to do the exact same thing only day 15 vs day 9. But they both evolve the Pacific pattern exactly the same way only a week apart. My guess is they are both following the same progression wrt the forcing shift in the Pacific but obviously disagree on the timing. 

I was going to make a post highlighting how the PAC breaks down and what to look for if it's real in a few mins after I put the kids to bed. 

Family before weather?  And you call yourself a weenie.

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well, from what I have seen written:

1. Not all SSWEs propagate to the surface.

2. Not all SSWEs which propagate will impact here (instead of say Eurasia).

3. Even if it does impact us here there can be a sizable lag (2 weeks to a month).

Once we see positive impacts inside day 10, I am sure that many will be more excited.

Of course if we do see blocking, I am not sure if there is any way to know if it came from the SSWE or not 

Yes good points. He said effects possibly in about two weeks but I have much respect for the “Bob’s and PSU’s etc” on here so I’m not banking at all on this. Heck coming back from 80’s and beautiful in Central Fla, so the 50’s etc in RVA is gonna feel “polar” haha.