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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I fully expect the next weeklies to push the flip further out in time 

Won't have to wait long. Tonight run should show the first hints of the trough backing out west then tomorrow's runs should show the first signs of the epo ridge developing. So in 24 hours we will know if the EPS is backing off the weekly progression. 

This is what tonight's run should look like at the end if the weeklies are still the right idea  

IMG_8173.thumb.PNG.55dbf689f446b68b62dea87803e568bf.PNG

Then by tomorrow night the flip is well under way

IMG_8174.thumb.PNG.c2ec8dadb8c1f9e9e065199cfbc4f68a.PNG

 

 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe. But look at the two panels I posted. Today's EPS actually might look slightly better than the weeklies same time. Definitely the same idea. Very similar. But the PAC trough is weaker and heights up top less hostile. But the longwave pattern is the same. No sign yet that it's changed. Not saying it won't. But this run wasn't any indication of it. That's all I'm saying. 

In case you haven't noticed... lol... I'm completely uninspired with this winter. That's not going to change until the real deal is inside of 7 days or even overhead. My pessimism will remain intact for at least 3 weeks according to your forecast or 2 months if what my gut is telling me is right.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In case you haven't noticed... lol... I'm completely uninspired with this winter. That's not going to change until the real deal is inside of 7 days or even overhead. My pessimism will remain intact for at least 3 weeks according to your forecast or 2 months if what my gut is telling me is right.

We will see. ORH_wxman thinks the end of the EPS is moving the right way...

"The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. "

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One thing i think the eps could be getting wrong is the ao/nao. I do question a strong +ao establishing in 10 days. It very well could end up much better than the eps panels suggest. It wont save the pac but it would provide a crack in the shutout wall currently in place. We'll know on way or the other fairly quickly and not weeks down the line 

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1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said:

Bastardi is using December 65, 84 and 94 as analogs to this strat warming. Apparently extreme cold followed. But did those winters feature a raging Pac jet to f**k it up like this year has?

Analogs...analogs...step right up folks...we have analogs to fit every budget.  No cash you say?  Well our operators are standing by...have a job...steady paycheck...we have your analog!

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The pattern to me, by temps/precip is essentially a colder 1994-95 nationally with a weaker/drier subtropical jet than that year because of the SOI in December. I don't think its that shocking what has happened to date. The low solar El Ninos tend to be drier than the high solar years nationally.

Wouldn't be shocked if there is one big blizzard in the NE between 1/20 and 2/10, but outside that window I don't see much potential. There are strong correlations between big +SOI Decembers and the SE ridge/eastern warmth in Feb. Most of the things I look at imply Western or Southwestern cold in March with tornado outbreaks in the Plains and SE throughout March.

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On 12/31/2018 at 10:30 AM, psuhoffman said:
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In case you haven't noticed... lol... I'm completely uninspired with this winter. That's not going to change until the real deal is inside of 7 days or even overhead. My pessimism will remain intact for at least 3 weeks according to your forecast or 2 months if what my gut is telling me is right.

 

Ji offering tutoring services now?

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Just now, raindancewx said:

The pattern to me, by temps/precip is essentially a colder 1994-95 nationally with a weaker/drier subtropical jet than that year because of the SOI in December. I don't think its that shocking what has happened to date. The low solar El Ninos tend to be drier than the high solar years nationally.

Wouldn't be shocked if there is one big blizzard in the NE between 1/20 and 2/10, but outside that window I don't see much potential. There are strong correlations between big +SOI Decembers and the SE ridge/eastern warmth in Feb. Most of the things I look at imply Western or Southwestern cold in March with tornado outbreaks in the Plains and SE throughout March.

94-95 was absolutely bone dry.  I believe we had a brief period in December with a couple of storms but otherwise 10/94-10/95 was one of the driest periods in recent memory 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We will see. ORH_wxman thinks the end of the EPS is moving the right way...

"The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. "

I see what he's pointing out. The ridge north of HI could build behind the Pac trough hitting the coast. Would love that to be the case. If we start seeing another pinwheel of pac troughs setting up it could push things down the line. It's hard to extrapolate a hideous d15 panel into something good though.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I see what he's pointing out. The ridge north of HI could build behind the Pac trough hitting the coast. Would love that to be the case. If we start seeing another pinwheel of pac troughs setting up it could push things down the line. It's hard to extrapolate a hideous d15 panel into something good though.

Or maybe the EPS is flat wrong.  Could be

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

94-95 was absolutely bone dry.  I believe we had a brief period in December with a couple of storms but otherwise 10/94-10/95 was one of the driest periods in recent memory 

Yea, and he's posting that in a region that is breaking all time precip records on the heels of a relentless string of big qpf winter rain storms 

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2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Bastardi is using December 65, 84 and 94 as analogs to this strat warming. Apparently extreme cold followed. But did those winters feature a raging Pac jet to f**k it up like this year has?

And that is why JB is a useless tool. Those 3 years couldn't have been more different. 65/66 lead to an epic snow blitz late January.  84/85 was an extreme arctic blast but a total bust for snow. Cold dry then a warm up.  A total crap snow year.  He knows 90% care about snow not cold so those analogs are useless for gleaming anything meaningful. Yea at some point it will probably get cold. In winter??? Really. Omg. Lol

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I see what he's pointing out. The ridge north of HI could build behind the Pac trough hitting the coast. Would love that to be the case. If we start seeing another pinwheel of pac troughs setting up it could push things down the line. It's hard to extrapolate a hideous d15 panel into something good though.

Yea I see it too. Looping the last 48 hours you can see that ridge building south of AK. Just like the weeklies. If that went out another 48 hours we likely would see that split the trough and become the epo ridge.  Hopefully that continues in future runs. 

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The geps gefs EPS progression is the same. But the gefs geps start it day 9/10. The EPS day 15. Crazy difference in timing. But big picture the pattern evolution isn't that different. The weaker mjo creating more lag of phase 6 could logically be why the EPS stalls the eastern Pacific trough breakdown by 5 days. 

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One thing i think the eps could be getting wrong is the ao/nao. I do question a strong +ao establishing in 10 days. It very well could end up much better than the eps panels suggest. It wont save the pac but it would provide a crack in the shutout wall currently in place. We'll know on way or the other fairly quickly and not weeks down the line 
We are putting our hopes on extrapolating beyond 360 hours....a very bad sign January is cooked and our winter will hinge on getting one or two events. Hopefully epic
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16 minutes ago, Ji said:
37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
One thing i think the eps could be getting wrong is the ao/nao. I do question a strong +ao establishing in 10 days. It very well could end up much better than the eps panels suggest. It wont save the pac but it would provide a crack in the shutout wall currently in place. We'll know on way or the other fairly quickly and not weeks down the line 

We are putting our hopes on extrapolating beyond 360 hours....a very bad sign January is cooked and our winter will hinge on getting one or two events. Hopefully epic

All signs point to hoping February is epic.

I don't think most people expected this, I know I didn't.... sucks  

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22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

DT thinks things will turn around later in January and Feb.  who’s excited? Anyone?  Aleet?  Bueller?

Of course DT sees the flip occurring in late January into February. He worships at the alter of the Euro and that is what it is suggesting at this time. God forbid he even consider any other model. 

 

15 minutes ago, Ji said:
35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
One thing i think the eps could be getting wrong is the ao/nao. I do question a strong +ao establishing in 10 days. It very well could end up much better than the eps panels suggest. It wont save the pac but it would provide a crack in the shutout wall currently in place. We'll know on way or the other fairly quickly and not weeks down the line 

We are putting our hopes on extrapolating beyond 360 hours....a very bad sign January is cooked and our winter will hinge on getting one or two events. Hopefully epic

Paging @WxWatcher007. Think this low hanging fruit is almost ripe enough for the picking. :D

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10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest Euro forecast for MJO travels through 6-7-8 before getting into COD.  It’s been correcting over the past week and pushing the COD further down the road.  

965ADA7A-B1BB-493B-9D02-4FE381580522.gif

Think the amplitude has been coming in stronger as well? Might need that stronger amplitude in the colder phases to help jump start the pattern shift. Otherwise we may have to depend on ENSO forcing for the pattern shift and that probably would drag on for awhile.

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17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Think the amplitude has been coming in stronger as well? Might need that stronger amplitude in the colder phases to help jump start the pattern shift. Otherwise we may have to depend on ENSO forcing for the pattern shift and that probably would drag on for awhile.

Yep, I don’t have the old ones to compare but I’m pretty sure its been increasing the amplitude as well.  

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35 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest Euro forecast for MJO travels through 6-7-8 before getting into COD.  It’s been correcting over the past week and pushing the COD further down the road.  

965ADA7A-B1BB-493B-9D02-4FE381580522.gif

The bigger red flag on the euro is how racing straight back toward the warm phases at warp speed after spending like a week in the cold. If we want to worry about a realistic way this whole winter could be an epic dumpster fire fail that would be it right there. 

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