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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hang on...is THAT the culprit here? (and Iet me guess...that's one of those more random things that can't possibly be seen in a more LR outlook?) And why is it anomalous, per se? (Not fitting with what you'd see in a nino?)

That is the mjo. Breaking it down to basics the mjo measures convective waves in the tropical convergence zone from the Indian Ocean into the western and central Pacific.  The oceans are by far the most significant contributor to the atmospheric potential energy. And the tropics add more heat to the equation than the mid and high latitudes. So the tropics are the main driver and the tropical Pacific is our driver since that's what's upstream from us. 

Where convection and subsidence is indicates where heat is being added to the atmosphere and that heat tends to propagate poleward. So tracking those waves we see a correlation to where the longwave ridges and troughs set up in the mid latitudes. 

One reason a modoki nino is usually good is the warmer waters in the central Pacific tends to promote convection and heat being added to the mid latitudes in a location favorable to get a western North American ridge and a trough in the eastern Conus. 

The problem with the mjo wave in phases 3-6 is convection in the Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific promotes a more Nina like Pacific pattern with an enhanced Pacific jet and a trough just off and along the west coast which floods the Conus with warm Pacific air. 

That wasn't really expected given the SST this year. Speculation why includes the SSWE and lack of SST gradients due to warmth all over to AAM...who knows. As bob said sometimes the weather weathers. 

This was really simplified but hopefully it helps answer your question. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

D10 EPS looks not awful to me. Better than GEFS over NA, not quite as robust as GEFS with high latitude blocking. I’ll let the other folks who pay for it tell us how it craps the bed after D10.

It pops a trough in the east day 11 but then quickly crashes another trough into the west and goes to crap by day 13. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It pops a trough in the east day 11 but then quickly crashes another trough into the west and goes to crap by day 13. 

The fast Pac flow continues on the EPS 

I would think that would eventually change, and the Pac flow slows down. Sorry, no concensus yet, still too early.   

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It does ? I haven't seen it yet but plenty of people think it's alot better than 0z.

Better or worse is subjective. Still shows a -pna, +epo, +ao/nao, and ridge in the east. I challenge anyone to spin that into something good. In my eyes it's another disaster of an ens run with zero reason to believe our area has a chance at snow over the next 2 weeks.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:
It does ? I haven't seen it yet but plenty of people think it's alot better than 0z.

Pos nao...epo...blue in the arctic...ridge in east. Other than that...looks decent

Lol- ninja'd. It's a disgusting look with the only hope being that it's wrong on all levels

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The N PAC shows a huge change underway at the very end. If you loop the H5 heights between about 324-360, you can see the whole shift occurring. If we got to see a few more panels, you'd prob see a big -EPO develop. Hopefully that is the change occurring for real and won't get pushed back. 

From NE...hopefully this is it.

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24 minutes ago, Ji said:

Eps looks worse than last night. When will it start to agree with it's own weeklies?

It does. The improvement on the weeklies started about 36 hours past the end of this run.  Look at the 2 same time...

12z EPS 

IMG_8172.thumb.PNG.0a939a15691c39aa8309b812fc7a4308.PNG

weeklies same time  

IMG_8169.thumb.PNG.ea62c6ee264d192bbe3f62d7a50f79de.PNG

if the EPS are still on track another day later we will see the trough out west split and a piece undercut the ridge across the central US while the main trough pulls back in the PAC and a couple days after that an epo ridge pops. The whole thing happens fast. As soon as the trough pulls back the epo ridge goes up. But that is still 36 hours after the end of the EPS. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol- ninja'd. It's a disgusting look with the only hope being that it's wrong on all levels

Or that or follows the weeklies progression from there. 

The next 15 days are lost. I've moved past that. If we can get to a good pattern around the 20th at this point I'll take that as a win. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not seeing that. All i see is bn heights from San Fran to Fairbanks.

Only thing I see that's better is the trough in GOA is weaker on the 12z run. Have to see if its just noise or if the lower h5 heights continue to shift more over the Aleutians going forward.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I fully expect the next weeklies to push the flip further out in time 

Maybe. But look at the two panels I posted. Today's EPS actually might look slightly better than the weeklies same time. Definitely the same idea. Very similar. But the PAC trough is weaker and heights up top less hostile. But the longwave pattern is the same. No sign yet that it's changed. Not saying it won't. But this run wasn't any indication of it. That's all I'm saying. 

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