WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I get that but being identical to the disaster that started in Dec when the mjo could blamed makes me question every explanation i've read about why the last 2 weeks have happened. All we can do is hope the eps is totally wrong and caves. Otheriwse it might be game set match. I hear you and don’t have much to respond with. Maybe the fact the weeklies still flip from that crap to something decent quickly is a good sign but I’m grasping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: I hear you and don’t have much to respond with. Maybe the fact the weeklies still flip from that crap to something decent quickly is a good sign but I’m grasping. It's troubling because when this happened in Dec the weeklies started pushing back the flip as well. We're running out of pushback cushion with the quickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Someone explain this... EPS runs the mjo into p8 then COD but shows one of the most hideous h5 panels of the season at the same time. Is it really the mjo causing the dreadful pacific? If the eps verifies I'm logging out of here because it would be an epic disaster not worth discussing Last year there was a lag with the mjo in feb and we didn't get the reaction until march. Then I remember reading some stuff about during a Nina there is more of a lag. The soi has been in Nina territory. Just a thought. Another thing if you look at day 10 on gefs it matches 15 on EPS. I think they are both going the same way only gefs is faster. And my gut says the reality is maybe in between. Gefs is probably rushing it like always. EPS might be dragging. So maybe Jan 20-25 is the flip. Similar to the timing in 66, 87, 2010. Not unprecedented and not too late to salvage a winning season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Someone explain this... EPS runs the mjo into p8 then COD but shows one of the most hideous h5 panels of the season at the same time. Is it really the mjo causing the dreadful pacific? If the eps verifies I'm logging out of here because it would be an epic disaster not worth discussing It makes no sense because even if it goes into the COD after 8 the pattern would more resemble 8 than it would 5 or 6. The Euro is likely still too weak on the MJO anyway. So it probably will be stronger in phase 8 than shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Last year there was a lag with the mjo in feb and we didn't get the reaction until march. Then I remember reading some stuff about during a Nina there is more of a lag. The soi has been in Nina territory. Just a thought. Another thing if you look at day 10 on gefs it matches 15 on EPS. I think they are both going the same way only gefs is faster. And my but says the reality is maybe in between. Gefs is probably rushing it like always. EPS might be dragging. So maybe Jan 20-25 is the flip. Similar to the timing in 66, 87, 2010. Not unprecedented and not too late to salvage a winning season. Doesnt it trouble you that the last "cycle" of a terrible Pac is still ongoing but started in mid Dec? If we reset back to square 1 do you really think it will be a quick/smooth transition to the promised land? I dont. If the EPS is right then my guess is sometime in Feb would be the earliest it gets good if it does at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 I fully expect in the next day or two the post will be...GEFS just caved to the EPS. These movies always show their hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It makes no sense because even if it goes into the COD after 8 the pattern would more resemble 8 than it would 5 or 6. The Euro is likely still too weak on the MJO anyway. So it probably will be stronger in phase 8 than shown If the EPS is right then it would open the discussion that the reason behind the disgusting pacific includes much more than the mjo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: If the EPS is right then it would open the discussion that the reason behind the disgusting pacific includes much more than the mjo. I just don’t know what it could be though. The ENSO phase and QBO argue strongly against it. There are very few instances of the PAC killing weak El Niño years. Basically 06-07 is the only one in my opinion. 94-95 was more killed by a lousy stratosphere and extraordinarily dry pattern. Had we been wet in February and March we probably end up near normal on snow that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 So what was the story with the three month long Pacific fire hose in 2011-2012? Hopefully no analogs to this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So what was the story with the three month long Pacific fire hose in 2011-2012? Hopefully no analogs to this year. That was the classic bad neutral after Niña. Although I want to say 11-12 may have technically came in as a weak La Niña. 89-90, 96-97, 01-02, 11-12 are all neutral or near neutral after La Niña. There seems to be a tendency for some reason or another for those winters to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: So what was the story with the three month long Pacific fire hose in 2011-2012? Hopefully no analogs to this year. There are different ways to fail. No similarity to 11-12. That disaster was all on the nasty AK vortex. We had good blocking that year but the black hole over AK pumped north america full of an endless supply of pac air. This disaster is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I fully expect in the next day or two the post will be...GEFS just caved to the EPS. These movies always show their hand I fully agree. 15 day dream patterns never verify. 15 day god awful patterns are always spot on. Just how it is anymore. I would love to see how many years had the Pacific firehose lock in and then reverse? My guess is not many. That is one of the most stable features of a winter pattern from my observations. Maybe someone can prove me wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I just don’t know what it could be though. The ENSO phase and QBO argue strongly against it. There are very few instances of the PAC killing weak El Niño years. Basically 06-07 is the only one in my opinion. 94-95 was more killed by a lousy stratosphere and extraordinarily dry pattern. Had we been wet in February and March we probably end up near normal on snow that winter. The recent chatter about the SSWE causing destructive interference takes the cake. After all the dead dog seasons chasing a sswe to save us we finally get one early enough and its being blamed for sinking us. Lol. Thats epic irony right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There are different ways to fail. No similarity to 11-12. That disaster was all on the nasty AK vortex. We had good blocking that year but the black hole over AK pumped north america full of an endless supply of pac air. This disaster is different. I don't remember any blocking at all that year. Raging positive NAO I thought. Started very similar to this year. Early snow around Halloween that year. Then endless crap after. This year was also an early snow although the pattern waited a little longer to go to crap this year. Enso was different that year but the modeled EPS looks just like that god awful disaster that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said: I don't remember any blocking at all that year. Raging positive NAO I thought. Started very similar to this year. Early snow around Halloween that year. Then endless crap after. This year was also and early snow although the pattern waited a little longer to go to crap this year. Enso was different that year but the modeled EPS looks just like that god awful disaater that year. You're correct. 12-13 had the useless blocking that tried to save us at the end but we ended up with Jim Cantore getting soaked by rain in DC. Lol. That part of the fail was pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You're correct. 12-13 had the useless blocking that tried to save us at the end but we ended up with Jim Cantore getting soaked by rain in DC. Lol. That part of the fail was pretty funny. December 2012 might be the December with the raging -AO which did nothing. I know we had a December recently where that happened. Of course we’ve had many like that over the years as the -AO in December doesn’t always help as it does in January or February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Someone explain this... EPS runs the mjo into p8 then COD but shows one of the most hideous h5 panels of the season at the same time. Is it really the mjo causing the dreadful pacific? If the eps verifies I'm logging out of here because it would be an epic disaster not worth discussing The SOI has been positive, ENSO is officially neutral, and the atmosphere has been behaving like a Nina. I suppose the strong warm phase MJO pulse could be overwhelming the pattern and making it behave even more Nina-like. With the drop in the SOI, and the MJO moving out of the warm phases(or dying out) I would think we see a more Nino like atmospheric response emerge over the coming weeks. At least that's my hope. Of course the other wildcard is the SWE and the potential impacts from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: The SOI has been positive, ENSO is officially neutral, and the atmosphere has been behaving like a Nina. I suppose the strong warm phase MJO pulse could be overwhelming the pattern and making it behave even more Nina-like. With the drop in the SOI, and the MJO moving out of the warm phases(or dying out) I would think we see a more Nino like atmospheric response emerge over the coming weeks. At least that's my hope. Of course the other wildcard is the SWE and the potential impacts from that. Gefs just took a large step towards the eps with the Pac. I'm going to be forced to take an unwanted break from this stuff here shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 39 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I fully expect in the next day or two the post will be...GEFS just caved to the EPS. These movies always show their hand It didn't even take a day or two...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the EPS is right then it would open the discussion that the reason behind the disgusting pacific includes much more than the mjo. What else would be causing the bad pac, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 First warning shot by the GEFS.... Edit to add, it’s still much better than the EPS but showing some troughiness out west. Need the -EPO to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 GFS op is a thing of beauty up top. If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: First warning shot by the GEFS.... ?? That is not a bad look at all. Stop chasing unicorns. Middle ground between EPS and gefs would work just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS op is a thing of beauty up top. If only. Cmc also looks very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ?? That is not a bad look at all. Stop chasing unicorns. Middle ground between EPS and gefs would work just fine. I think people are hecs hunting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: What else would be causing the bad pac, then? Sometimes (many times) weather is just weather and no analog or index or teleconnection will explain it. Predicting weather at long leads is fraught with peril and unpredictable outcomes. For years i used to put a lot of stock in long range winter outlooks but it became apparent that its impossible to accurately predict. Especially when it comes to snow in our area. Its one of the primary reasons i generally only look 2 weeks ahead at the most. 2013-14 is revered as a benchmark of a great active winter now. However, the pattern that delievered is not synonymous with a good winter. If it happens again expect a very disappointing winter and not a wall to wall snow fest. There's still time for a reversal but there are glaring warning shots and red flags now and ignoring them is bad practice. Hope for the best and expect the worst at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: ?? That is not a bad look at all. Stop chasing unicorns. Middle ground between EPS and gefs would work just fine. I edited my post. It’s mostly just to stir up the base since we are hoping to move it forward in time and it’s still out there towards the end of then. I agree it’s a good look but I think we can all agree it would be nice to be getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ?? That is not a bad look at all. Stop chasing unicorns. Middle ground between EPS and gefs would work just fine. It was a notable shift away from the very good look. There's plenty of time to degrade further. We're in a model war and the last thing we want to see is the good solution make a move towards the hideous one. Well... that's what just happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ?? That is not a bad look at all. Stop chasing unicorns. Middle ground between EPS and gefs would work just fine. Its a step in the direction of what the EPS is advertising though. There is a lot going on currently, so both models are probably going to struggle to get the evolving pattern correct in the LR. Its a wait game, and no one is any mood for more waiting. It is what it is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Its a step in the direction of what the EPS is advertising though. There is a lot going on currently, so both models are probably going to struggle to get the evolving pattern correct in the LR. Its a wait game, and no one is any mood for more waiting. It is what it is though. I dont believe there's a middle ground between the eps and gefs. We either end the pac barf or we dont. The middle of the 2 is still pac barf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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