Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: My birthday storm!! It's coming That's a lot of frosting there...might be a three-layered cake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: We were looking at a disaster on 1/1/19 and we just got close to a foot of snow. I cannot stress this enough. Not everyone did that well. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I cannot stress this enough. Not everyone did that well. Not even close. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Time for a new thread. Mods can unpin this one and pin the new thread? good call, quickly going off the rails in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: good call, quickly going off the rails in here With the current 10 day outlook... don't expect the new thread to be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: With the current 10 day outlook... don't expect the new thread to be much different. What happened to all the optimism a few days ago? Sorry, long time lurker/novice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Models gotta show all the varieties at this point Strong, cold high pressures or zero high pressure is the winter trend keep showing 1035+ and we snow or suppress. 1010 and they cut. we had a slew of cutters plus one suppressed and one worked out beyond perfect. The thing I have found models The Best at is high pressure placements. Seeing strong highs portrayed in the right places seems to be the trend right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Cautioned about the “10 days away” mantra in late December. we just got big snow and we will get some more even though all the hobbledeegee about SSW and whatever just keeps getting pushed away. Follow the high pressure set ups for now, that is what is ruling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockabilyJunior Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: we are getting close to Ians sun angle season so we better come up big between Feb 1 and PD weekend. For me after, PD weekend, winter is pretty much over. You have to have a really special storm after that to get me excited. Most of our March storms end up unproducing The last few years (March 2015, 2017, 2018) have been among the best winter months of the whole season. Especially for snow, but even for cold. Sure sun angle causes problems, but around and before march 21 it's still more likely to be snowing when the sun is set than when it's not, and the storms in march always seemed juiced, so that the rates seem to overcome sun angle problems anyway. So a small climo reminder (For Baltimore at least) The probability of precipitation falling as snow on Dec 14 is 4%, and on March 14 it's 4%. So if you were hoping for snow in Dec you should be hoping for snow in March. Right now we are basically at peak climo. In Baltimore at least, when there is precipitation around Jan 20, 13% of the time it's snow. We are in a slightly colder period right now, so maybe we've bumped our chances of snow to 20%. While it's great to look at long range models, and there is some incredible analysis of them on this site, they only have so much predictive power. Snowfall is so non-linear (i.e. freezing line makes all the difference) that having the temperature off by the slightest bit and the track off by the slightest bit can be the difference between 55 and rain, and 25 and snow. We know almost certainly that there is going to be a fairly big storm this weekend with a lot of moisture. Beyond that we really don't know all that much. Let's just sit back and wait to see. Crazier things have happened, including the snow totals that just occurred, as many others have pointed out. We'll know more tomorrow and Thursday even though it's appearing less likely that we see only snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The pattern is changing....the cutters are cutting farther West now. Thanks MJO. So with that said it seems there is quite a bit of confidence that it locks in as a sustained neg NAO. Seems to contradict and I dont mean you or anyone personally. I would take the neg NAO unicorn with a grain of salt still until it is fully established. That's just my amateur conservative approach. I'm sure I'm wrong and way off base. That isnt necessarily a horrible thing for my area. If they cut further west with some entrenched cold air we can get a nice front end thump then dry slot. It happens quite often actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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