StantonParkHoya Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It better hurry up and snow before the sun angle discussions begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Yeah, if DC doesn't see another flake aren't they at climo for the year? This next storm does look like the classic warm wet then cold dry that we do so well here. Shouldn't be all that disappointing or shocking. They need a few more inches to reach climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're right on the cusp of the progged -nao developing d10. Euro looks like it's going that way d10 and GEFS/EPS mostly agree. The nao is probably the most difficult teleconnection to forecast so models are normally pretty unstable leading in. If/when it gets going, guidance will be much more stable. 2 big rainstorms (if that's where we're going) in the next 10 days are going to make things a little edgy in here to put it lightly. Here is the rough outline for Ji's melt- December- punted the whole month January- punted 3 weeks, one good storm February- epic blocking better deliver or chill, psu, and cape are getting trolled indefinitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah he has been talking about that for a while hasn't he? Yes, he has. He still seems very upbeat about late Jan and Feb, so time will tell. ( to me late Jan is like maybe the 28th so I am not sure what date he was targeting for a Midwest blizzard ) I bet he posts on that today, as he did say he would follow up. ( I think he is member here too, as you know he posts only his feed I guess ) But, he needs to post here to save time really. Time is short you know to scan social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That D9-10 storm tho. Now that's a cutter. GL blizzard and rain to N Maine. The pattern is changing....the cutters are cutting farther West now. Thanks MJO. 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're right on the cusp of the progged -nao developing d10. Euro looks like it's going that way d10 and GEFS/EPS mostly agree. The nao is probably the most difficult teleconnection to forecast so models are normally pretty unstable leading in. If/when it gets going, guidance will be much more stable. 2 big rainstorms (if that's where we're going) in the next 10 days are going to make things a little edgy in here to put it lightly. So with that said it seems there is quite a bit of confidence that it locks in as a sustained neg NAO. Seems to contradict and I dont mean you or anyone personally. I would take the neg NAO unicorn with a grain of salt still until it is fully established. That's just my amateur conservative approach. I'm sure I'm wrong and way off base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It better hurry up and snow before the sun angle discussions begin Pitchers and catchers 3 and a half weeks. Sun angle overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: They need a few more inches to reach climo. Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area. Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average. This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Euro goes from 55 to 26 between 9am and noon. That is impressive. That would be close to a record three hour drop for me, all time is November 1995 from 62 to 30 in 3 hours, 32 defrees Mega Front Incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pitchers and catchers 3 and a half weeks. Sun angle overrated. Punters reported early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 My birthday storm!! It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area. Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average. This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY I was talking about DCA, not northern Delaware. I need about 19-20 more inches to reach climo. Also, you're the one who's been complaining more than almost anyone else in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Some of you are a bunch of clowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Punters reported early Touche Well played sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The pattern is changing....the cutters are cutting farther West now. Thanks MJO. So with that said it seems there is quite a bit of confidence that it locks in as a sustained neg NAO. Seems to contradict and I dont mean you or anyone personally. I would take the neg NAO unicorn with a grain of salt still until it is fully established. That's just my amateur conservative approach. I'm sure I'm wrong and way off base. I think seeing universal agreement at longer leads gives credence to progged -NAO. Any long range forecast can bust because we're a long ways away from that type of accuracy but seeing strong consensus and it's not moving further out in time is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Some of you are a bunch of clowns Can you describe the clown ? Silly goofball clown like Bozo or a buzzkill creeper like Pennywise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Can you describe the clown ? Silly goofball clown like Bozo or a buzzkill creeper like Pennywise? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Models gotta show all the varieties at this point Strong, cold high pressures or zero high pressure is the winter trend keep showing 1035+ and we snow or suppress. 1010 and they cut. we had a slew of cutters plus one suppressed and one worked out beyond perfect. The thing I have found models The Best at is high pressure placements. Seeing strong highs portrayed in the right places seems to be the trend right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I’m willing to go out on a limb and say we score some snow before Feb. The models are jumpy and I’d bet we run into something in the medium to short range in the next two weeks that we don’t even have on the radar at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The euro OP usually has at least 1 run that is terrible throughout the entire run for any given medium range focus per storm threat. Hopefully the Ensembles look better and more in line with our beloved UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: The euro OP usually has at least 1 run that is terrible throughout the entire run for any given medium range focus per storm threat. Hopefully the Ensembles look better and more in line with our beloved UKMET Not 12z. Very much in line with the op. Very few solutions do much in our area. Basically the storm is doing exactly what it should for the upper level setup leading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area. Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average. This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY What the **** happened to you? You need Apollo to help you get back your Eye of the Tiger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: My birthday storm!! It's coming That's the panel right before it cuts up through KY then eastern OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 29 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area. Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average. This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY you are funny. also, it's fare, not faire and I need 23" or so to hit climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I never thought that on Jan 15, we would be looking at the long range and saying disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Ji said: I never thought that on Jan 15, we would be looking at the long range and saying disaster It's not a total disaster like December. We'll get pretty cold after each rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Starting off fresh with a new thread wouldn't be the worst thing and put this one to bed at 143 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Ji said: I never thought that on Jan 15, we would be looking at the long range and saying disaster We were looking at a disaster on 1/1/19 and we just got close to a foot of snow. So it’s best if we punt and complain because that worked well for this past event. I’m not even kidding lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: We were looking at a disaster on 1/1/19 and we just got close to a foot of snow. So it’s best if we punt and complain because that worked well for this past event. I’m not even kidding lol we are getting close to Ians sun angle season so we better come up big between Feb 1 and PD weekend. For me after, PD weekend, winter is pretty much over. You have to have a really special storm after that to get me excited. Most of our March storms end up unproducing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Ji said: we are getting close to Ians sun angle season so we better come up big between Feb 1 and PD weekend. For me after, PD weekend, winter is pretty much over. You have to have a really special storm after that to get me excited. Most of our March storms end up unproducing pretty sure this is all season long, not just after Presidents Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Time for a new thread. Mods can unpin this one and pin the new thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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