January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol

Yep, I remember a lot of talk in late January about a flip to a warm February. Never even came close to happening, even though we had a bit of a break late in the month before going back to deep winter. The mid-Feb KU storm looked pretty good from mid-range, but I definitely remember the two March storms trending south due to the overwhelming PV.

[Fozz]

For all the weenies who want a closer look 

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol

Yep, it was winter in bizarro world that year.  Up was down, hot was cold, and night was day.

[gymengineer]

The 13/14 winter was just insane for the amount of events. Here's my event log from that winter:

12/8-9/13: 1.5” snow to accumulating sleet to freezing rain (>.1” glaze) 

12/10/13: 2” slop that had trouble accumulating during the day

1/2-3/14: 4” overachiever, lasting past midnight. Street accumulation on Old Georgetown after dark

1/10/14: Ice on sidewalks from rain in above freezing air temps

1/21/14: 6.5” Biggest storm in 3 seasons—road accumulations even onto Rockville Pike. 5-8” MoCo range

1/29/14: 0.5” overnight

2/4-5/14: ~0.2” glaze of ice. Severe ice storm in Frederick through Carroll and northern Baltimore counties-- >40% power outages.

2/9/14: 0.5” Sunday snow

2/12-13/14: ~15.5” total—13” by 8 am, Rockville Pike completely snow covered at 6 am—drizzle/light rain lull until 3 pm. ULL dropped 2.5” very wet snow that stuck to streets again. 12-20” MoCo range

2/18/14: a bit less than 1” overnight

2/25/14: a bit more than 1” between 9 am and noon—grass and car and Harris Teeter sidewalk only

2/26/14: 2 ¼” between 5:15 am and around 10:30 am. 

3/3/14: 5 ¼” after a changeover from rain and sleet by 5 am. Temps dropping through to the lower 20’s by dawn to the teens by noon. Road coverage complete all around my building and in parking lot across the street (plow couldn’t keep up with the snow). Heaviest/lowest visibility band was the last one that swept through between 12:10 pm and 1:00 pm. As temps plunged down into the single digits, any road not completely plowed turned into a sheet of solid ice.  4-7” MoCo range

3/16-17/14: 9”, less on roads. All roads covered overnight in heavy snow with plunging temps, down to low 20’s by dawn. 7-10” MoCo range

3/25/14: 2 ¾”, no road accumulations, but covered bbq patio paved area. Started around 8 am, ended around 7:30 pm.

3/30/14: ¾” surprise heavy snow dumping as fast as it melted to keep on some concrete surfaces. 

4/15/14: T-0.1” end squall of sleet to snow after heavy rain

 

Monthly totals:

December- 3.5”

January- 11”

February- 20.25”

March- 17.75”

 

Total: 52.5”

[midatlanticweather]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol

My favorite line from that year by you @Bob Chill was that if the atmosphere would fart and it would somehow snow on us. I laughed and laughed, but it was a special time! Never had I seen so many systems start as rain and NE snow storms on forecast models, push south and cause us snow! It did it again and again, and even one time pushed from New York snow to the southern half of Va! Fun times!

[paulythegun]

11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

For all the weenies who want a closer look 

worth noting that for areas 30+ miles SW of DC, a 1-2" of that is from Friday's weak system. As for DC - that's all on the backend of the weekend system. 

[LeesburgWx]

14 minutes ago, Fozz said:

For all the weenies who want a closer look 

Is this all snow or does it show freezing rain and sleet etc as snow on this? 

[Yeoman]

Did UK trend south significantly from the last run? That's what I'd be looking for.. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Did UK trend south significantly from the last run? That's what I'd be looking for.. 

UK is the most progressive of the 12z suite so far which allows it to track further south.  Dr. No should be along with his wet blanket shortly.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

UK is the most progressive of the 12z suite so far which allows it to track further south.  Dr. No should be along with his wet blanket shortly.

Not even close with the lead wave or any potential trailing wave. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

UK is the most progressive of the 12z suite so far which allows it to track further south.  Dr. No should be along with his wet blanket shortly.

Wow, you are right, rain all the way up to Maine including NYC, Boston , ugly.  2 meter temps upper 50's. on Monday 00Z 

[Fozz]

8 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Did UK trend south significantly from the last run? That's what I'd be looking for.. 

It shows a bit more snow for my area than the previous run. I don't have full access to that model though, I've only seen a handful of maps.

On another note, I think the UKMET love fest is over. 

Euro = 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Wow, you are right, rain all the way up to Maine including NYC, Boston , ugly. 

It's a hot garbage disaster.  

[NorthArlington101]

Time to accept reality and get excited for witnessing a crazy temperature swing and a proper flash freeze. 55 in DCA at 126hr, 24 at 132hr.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Time to accept reality and get excited for witnessing a crazy temperature swing and a proper flash freeze. 55 in DCA at 126hr, 24 at 132hr.

Would be nice to  get a consolation 1" - 3" on the backside with the deep freeze.  Cold and dry is meaningless unless there's at least a few inches of snow on the ground.

[snowmagnet]

28 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

The 13/14 winter was just insane for the amount of events. Here's my event log from that winter:

12/8-9/13: 1.5” snow to accumulating sleet to freezing rain (>.1” glaze) 

12/10/13: 2” slop that had trouble accumulating during the day

1/2-3/14: 4” overachiever, lasting past midnight. Street accumulation on Old Georgetown after dark

1/10/14: Ice on sidewalks from rain in above freezing air temps

1/21/14: 6.5” Biggest storm in 3 seasons—road accumulations even onto Rockville Pike. 5-8” MoCo range

1/29/14: 0.5” overnight

2/4-5/14: ~0.2” glaze of ice. Severe ice storm in Frederick through Carroll and northern Baltimore counties-- >40% power outages.

2/9/14: 0.5” Sunday snow

2/12-13/14: ~15.5” total—13” by 8 am, Rockville Pike completely snow covered at 6 am—drizzle/light rain lull until 3 pm. ULL dropped 2.5” very wet snow that stuck to streets again. 12-20” MoCo range

2/18/14: a bit less than 1” overnight

2/25/14: a bit more than 1” between 9 am and noon—grass and car and Harris Teeter sidewalk only

2/26/14: 2 ¼” between 5:15 am and around 10:30 am. 

3/3/14: 5 ¼” after a changeover from rain and sleet by 5 am. Temps dropping through to the lower 20’s by dawn to the teens by noon. Road coverage complete all around my building and in parking lot across the street (plow couldn’t keep up with the snow). Heaviest/lowest visibility band was the last one that swept through between 12:10 pm and 1:00 pm. As temps plunged down into the single digits, any road not completely plowed turned into a sheet of solid ice.  4-7” MoCo range

3/16-17/14: 9”, less on roads. All roads covered overnight in heavy snow with plunging temps, down to low 20’s by dawn. 7-10” MoCo range

3/25/14: 2 ¾”, no road accumulations, but covered bbq patio paved area. Started around 8 am, ended around 7:30 pm.

3/30/14: ¾” surprise heavy snow dumping as fast as it melted to keep on some concrete surfaces. 

4/15/14: T-0.1” end squall of sleet to snow after heavy rain

 

Monthly totals:

December- 3.5”

January- 11”

February- 20.25”

March- 17.75”

 

Total: 52.5”

Great detailed notes. I mentioned yesterday that we had a lousy pattern in '13-'14 and '14-'15 but it just seemed to want to snow.  Lots of of moderate events. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would be nice to  get a consolation 1" - 3" on the backside with the deep freeze.  Cold and dry is meaningless unless there's at least a few inches of snow on the ground.

Looks like the cold outruns the precipitation by a wide margin this run, no hints of a trailing wave I can decipher. 

 

Edit: I mean precip outruns cold

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would be nice to  get a consolation 1" - 3" on the backside with the deep freeze.  Cold and dry is meaningless unless there's at least a few inches of snow on the ground.

Very true, what good is 10 degrees and no snow cover. So, if the Euro is correct we lose the snow cover and have to wait for the next oppurtunity window near the 24th. 

A bit frustrating, even knowing Isotherm said 5 days ago this would be a high risk forecast for snow on the coastal plain, and likely rain. I imagine it could still change but not worth the time in my opinion. All I can say is, we better not run dry when the better blocking sets in. So typical, like last year, early Jan as an example.  

   

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, frd said:

Very true, what good is 10 degrees and no snow cover. So, if the Euro is correct we lose the snow cover and have to wait for the next oppurtunity window near the 24th. 

A bit frustrating, even knowing Isotherm said 5 days ago this would be a high risk forecast for snow on the coastal plain, and likely rain. I imagine it could still change but not worth the time in my opinion. All I can say is, we better not run dry when the better blocking sets in. So typical, like last year, early Jan as an example.  

   

Cold doesn't look nearly as impressive for early next week on the Euro either.  It's a pretty awful run.

[MN Transplant]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Time to accept reality and get excited for witnessing a crazy temperature swing and a proper flash freeze. 55 in DCA at 126hr, 24 at 132hr.

Euro goes from 55 to 26 between 9am and noon.  That is impressive.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Cold doesn't look nearly as impressive for early next week on the Euro either.  It's a pretty awful run.

Yea, the 12z euro is a disaster start to finish. I guess we can look on the bright side... it can only get better from here

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the 12z euro is a disaster start to finish. I guess we can look on the bright side... it can only get better from here

By mid March, all should finally be right in time for the magical mangled 4 inch March 18 storm.

[CAPE]

That D9-10 storm tho. Now that's a cutter. GL blizzard and rain to N Maine.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, the 12z euro is a disaster start to finish. I guess we can look on the bright side... it can only get better from here

I have not looked and at this point taking a break,  but I bet the folks on Long Island, Boston and other locals are really frustrated.

You had your 11 inches, I had 4 inches here this past weekend, and we had the November event and areas to our South had the MECS in December, but those folks must be depressed. 

Actually we all knew better to a degree that this event was not going to go our way, still amazed by rain though very far North of us.    

Hopefuly the real pattern on weeklies will make everyone happy.  

[frd]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That D9-10 storm tho. Now that's a cutter. GL blizzard and rain to N Maine.

Ah the HM storm.   

[CAPE]

Just now, frd said:

Ah the HM storm.   

Yeah he has been talking about that for a while hasn't he?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, frd said:

I have not looked and at this point taking a break,  but I bet the folks on Long Island, Boston and other locals are really frustrated.

You had your 11 inches, I had 4 inches here this past weekend, and we had the November event and areas to our South had the MECS in December, but those folks must be depressed. 

Actually we all knew better to a degree that this event was not going to go our way, still amazed by rain though very far North of us.    

Hopefuly the real pattern on weeklies will make everyone happy.  

We're right on the cusp of the progged -nao developing d10. Euro looks like it's going that way d10 and GEFS/EPS mostly agree. The nao is probably the most difficult teleconnection to forecast so models are normally pretty unstable leading in. If/when it gets going, guidance will be much more stable. 2 big rainstorms (if that's where we're going) in the next 10 days are going to make things a little edgy in here to put it lightly. 

[RevWarReenactor]

Yeah, if DC doesn't see another flake aren't they at climo for the year?

This next storm does look like the classic warm wet then cold dry that we do so well here. Shouldn't be all that disappointing or shocking.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Remember a few days ago when guidance showed DC getting 40"+ for a few runs for Sunday? Ahh, the good old days. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Yeah, if DC doesn't see another flake aren't they at climo for the year?

This next storm does look like the classic warm wet then cold dry that we do so well here. Shouldn't be all that disappointing or shocking.

 

More than half way at DCA I suppose.  I think its like 13 or 14 inches.  still won't ease the pain if we don't see one more flake however.