jaydreb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Is that a triple phaser at the end of the GFS run? Not sure I know how to spot one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: fantasy land gfs shows how a WAR can help us as it brings a wave up that would be suppressed otherwise. Great blocking after the 1/24 cutter. Lol...if the Jan 31 is sleet...i think you might even melt down.....I am excited man. Just tired of waiting. I want a winter where we get a La Nina in December and Nino for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Like I've always said. If it's rain, it could be 300 hours out and it's a lock. Your 10" snowstorm the other day was rain at 300 hours lol The big 2016 blizzard was a rainstorm on the euro at day 10. The February storm in 2015 was a rainstorm at day 7. Several of our snow events in 2014 were rain on the guidance from range. Rainstorms appear to be "locks" because overall the thermal boundary does seem to trend north not south from range on guidance. Also there is a MUCH larger areal coverage of any storm that is rain. And we typically don't closely follow the slight adjustments in a rainstorm that might mean .5 vs .75 qpf but they happen. I have followed plenty of rainstorms for some reason or another...sometimes just to test out something with the models, and there are the same errors. This is just perception bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: Lol...if the Jan 31 is sleet...i think you might even melt down.....I am excited man. Just tired of waiting. I want a winter where we get a La Nina in December and Nino for the rest of the winter. It dumps 6-10" of snow first...so the sleet and freezing rain would just be to harden and protect our snowpack for the coming month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Is that a triple phaser at the end of the GFS run? Not sure I know how to spot one. Not really. The trough axis is so far west that it allows height rises in the east. Move the trough axis east and it's a suppressed look. It's not even that strong of a shortwave but it's able to tap abundant moisture from the pac and gulf and eject it our way. IMHO- the end of the run gfs solution is just random chaos during a large scale longwave pattern shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 While its an OP run at range, that is some serious cold on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z GEFS backing down in frozen or trailing wave potential this weekend. Spread is tightening but not in a good way. I'm dropping any expectations on this one. One more day showing all or mostly rain and I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 UKMET on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1050 high in New England and it still cuts LOL Per Teninch Johnson that should offer our best snow situation. Maybe we still have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z GEFS backing down in frozen or trailing wave potential this weekend. Spread is tightening but not in a good way. I'm dropping any expectations on this one. One more day showing all or mostly rain and I'm out. just hug the ukmet...come on you know the handbook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z GEFS backing down in frozen or trailing wave potential this weekend. Spread is tightening but not in a good way. I'm dropping any expectations on this one. One more day showing all or mostly rain and I'm out. Thankfully we banked this past storm or there would be lots of meltdowns (me included)! A good storm buys a couple of weeks of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Per Teninch Johnson that should offer our best snow situation. Maybe we still have a chance Still waiting for him to explain how a low is going to move northeast out of WV through NC without a transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 somehow the UKMET Is the #2 model but for our backyard...to me its up there with the CRAS 84NAM and the Wave3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: While its an OP run at range, that is some serious cold on the GFS. 2 cutters possibly followed by a SE snowstorm. Ji may have an epic melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 UKMET is a major snowstorm for the areas that were favored in 2013-14, so I'm hugging it. Or more like clinging for dear life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 It’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 51 minutes ago, nj2va said: UKMET This will not cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 thought you guys might want to hug this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I hope other guidance start trending towards the UKIE. I think the difference it the two HP's two the north of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Still waiting for him to explain how a low is going to move northeast out of WV through NC without a transfer. Never said it would. You want to join the dipshit chirping crowd also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: This will not cut Yeah, and remember rule #963 from the weenie handbook...the 12z Euro always follows the 12z ukie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'm not giving up when the second best model still looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: UKMET is a major snowstorm for the areas that were favored in 2013-14, so I'm hugging it. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml UKMET Subjectively Observed Bias Geographical location of bias Annual/Diurnal attribute Submitted by Date Submitted Operational Implication Suspected Cause Seems better than GFS with forecast of phasing of systems in northern and southern branch of jet North American middle latitudes Anytime NCEP WPC Since fall of 2001 When GFS is showing phasing of systems beyond 84 hours, check UKMET to see if solution is consistent GDAS ? Weenie translation: blah blah blah UKMET "better than GFS blah blah beyond 84 hrs" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: This will not cut i don't know that i buy the cutters, but i think app runner is an issue (though i suppose that classifies as a cutter). it also doesn't look there's going to be ideal cad developing out ahead of it because of that southeast ridge. it's a setup worth monitoring, but i could see how it could still be an apps runner even with the favored banana highs over top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Fozz said: UKMET is a major snowstorm for the areas that were favored in 2013-14, so I'm hugging it. Or more like clinging for dear life Our area is famous for going on heaters with extended crap periods in between. If the weekend deal ends up morphing into a measurable event it will start to feel like it "just wants to snow". 13-14 is a prime example and Feb/Mar 2015 as well. I don't really like much about the weekend setup but there is still a path to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s coming. I am interested to see what analogs start to pop up as the better look gets into range. But going back over the last several days the flip of the NAO is not fixed in time around the 26th on the GEFS and making progress closer after it was initially stalling and delaying for a while. The EPS has been consistently advertising that time for the flip. I am honestly not sure what a full latitude trough like that along with blocking would yield. It's such a rare extreme pattern there aren't a lot of good analogs and I am curious what shows up. After that as the PV weakens and heights rise across Canada we enter a more classic looking regime similar to 2010. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, Porsche said: thought you guys might want to hug this Excuse me, I need to take that somewhere private. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Our area is famous for going on heaters with extended crap periods in between. If the weekend deal ends up morphing into a measurable event it will start to feel like it "just wants to snow". 13-14 is a prime example and Feb/Mar 2015 as well. I don't really like much about the weekend setup but there is still a path to victory. I recall a lot of talk in 2013-14 (especially the first half) about how the pattern wasn't all that great. The NAO sucked but the EPO was amazing, and normally it's not a reliable setup in our area, but somehow that winter ended up having more snowstorms than any other that I'm old enough to remember. I think this weekend event will come down to luck in this less than stellar setup... seems like a classic "thread the needle" type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 34 minutes ago, nj2va said: UKMET on its own. Off topic....How do you like True Weather? Great UKMET graphics..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: I recall a lot of talk in 2013-14 (especially the first half) about how the pattern wasn't all that great. The NAO sucked but the EPO was amazing, and normally it's not a reliable setup, but somehow that winter ended up having more snowstorms than any other that I'm old enough to remember. I think this weekend event will come down to luck in this less than stellar setup... seems like a classic "thread the needle" type of event. A little fuzzy with specific details of 13-14 but I'm recalling periods in late Jan through Mar where long and mid range rain turned into snow as we got to shorter leads. The pattern in the long range was advertised to flip hostile multiple times but got pushed back from early Feb to the end of Mar. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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