psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Ya - ok - I just ran through it - the cold is rough! LOL! The cold is worth consideration. Right now its borderline...if it looks too frigid though I will have to call it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together. He is really excited. But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that. My first ski trip with my son as well this weekend. But we're headed to Massanutten Friday through Monday. Not sure we'll get any snow but rain this weekend. The models don't look favorable for that part of VA. Massanutten is a hill compared to the mountains in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, adelphi_sky said: My first ski trip with my son as well this weekend. But we're headed to Massanutten Friday through Monday. Not sure we'll get any snow but rain this weekend. The models don't look favorable for that part of VA. Massanutten is a hill compared to the mountains in the northeast. 1000' vertical is pretty decent especially for here. Enough to call it a mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 While everyone is focused on the weekend storm, check out the GFS @ 150 hrs...awesome spot for TPV and positive tilted wave heading E, HP in great spot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The cold is worth consideration. Right now its borderline...if it looks too frigid though I will have to call it off. NNE will be way too cold on Monday. I don't think a little child will handle single digit temps very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: While everyone is focused on the weekend storm, check out the GFS @ 150 hrs...awesome spot for TPV and positive tilted wave heading E, HP in great spot.... Looks like the Sunday storm tries to setup in 50/50 for added support. Eta: meh transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 El Nino still strong Remember, Jan 17- Feb 21, 2019 is the time period of Stratosphere warming = -NAO on like a 65-70% correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1047 HP wedged over W NY....Only negative here is the W Ridge not in a great spot, but the CAD should hold here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Lol, almost looks like a repeat of the weekend event. Would need the main shortwave to be a little faster to take advantage of the transient 50/50 and HP or it would cut again because of location of W Ridge IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yeah, looks like the wave took too long to come E here so the HP is starting to head East into an unfavorable spot....Something to keep an eye on if the weekend event is a Rainer, which is looking more and more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah, looks like the wave took too long to come E here so the HP is starting to head East into an unfavorable spot....Something to keep an eye on if the weekend event is a Rainer, which is looking more and more likely. interesting how that 1049 high still wedges in and almost looks like a new low is trying to form to the south at hour 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: While everyone is focused on the weekend storm, check out the GFS @ 150 hrs...awesome spot for TPV and positive tilted wave heading E, HP in great spot.... The key to that system IMO is getting a trough split or de-amplified solution. If the whole thing phases it's going to cut to Ohio. With the WAR and positive NAO that is pretty much a given. But there will be cold in place and a string of highs to the north so IF we can get the northern stream to stay split and the southern piece to cut under we could get a wave up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1050 high in New England and it still cuts LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together. He is really excited. But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that. Go to Vermont man. Stowe is prime for 12-18" from this one. Sugarbush will probably be good spot too and little more friendly on the pass prices. Enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The key to that system IMO is getting a trough split or de-amplified solution. If the whole thing phases it's going to cut to Ohio. With the WAR and positive NAO that is pretty much a given. But there will be cold in place and a string of highs to the north so IF we can get the northern stream to stay split and the southern piece to cut under we could get a wave up the coast. Something like jan. 2014 would work in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Winds don't look any stronger than for any typical storm in the winter up there. As of now shouldn't be too bad. Trust me, it will absolutely be windy. Anytime you get something that spins up that much its windy up there. But those mountains always half lifts that positioned for windy days. Just might not be able to get to the "goods" up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That storm is going to flip the NAO though so it serves a purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 moisture bombs. Both cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 2 moisture bombs. Both cutters. Look on the bright side... it will make us appreciate the storm we just had even more... eh, who am I kidding. I feel a melt building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 There better be some moisture with this or I say what pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 2 moisture bombs. Both cutters. and its a lock...even at 240 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look on the bright side... it will make us appreciate the storm we just had even more... eh, who am I kidding. I feel a melt building. i dont think there is one person on the board when we started seeing the pattern really flip on the weeklies that thought a Jan 25 storm would be rain. Jan 15--20...sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: UKMET this is typical Ukmet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 This is significant in a big way though. The oppurtunity of major storms, and a stable pattern of cold with long lasting snow cover is on the table. Isotherm did mention if this happens, ( still has to happen ) it raises the bar on severity levels of weather events. KABOOM And the SSWE is still going strong. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -3.7 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -4.6 m/s 2013 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 67.9 m/s 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think there is one person on the board when we started seeing the pattern really flip on the weeklies that thought a Jan 25 storm would be rain. Jan 15--20...sure Why there was a WAR there that week... we saw a -pna and a lot of cold around and I think some ignored the pattern wasn't really perfect until the very end of January. Its not a BAD pattern, but rain is always a threat if its not perfect. At the time the western ridge was a little better...that has trended west just a small amount, a very minor error for day 15-20 but just enough to take what was a "good but not great" pattern and make it more problematic. We might still score some frozen during this period. Later this week some. Maybe a bit front or back end on one of these next couple waves. But with the western ridge retreating as far as it has the chances of a big snow are greatly reduced but the pattern is still pretty close to what the long range guidance advertised. The excellent looks started AFTER the week of the 18-25th and that still looks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 fantasy land gfs shows how a WAR can help us as it brings a wave up that would be suppressed otherwise. Great blocking after the 1/24 cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: and its a lock...even at 240 hours Like I've always said. If it's rain, it could be 300 hours out and it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Like I've always said. If it's rain, it could be 300 hours out and it's a lock. Last weekends storm was rain a week out. Rip and read tune in tomorrow for the latest edition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Like I've always said. If it's rain, it could be 300 hours out and it's a lock. it may budge 5 miles north or south in the next 240 hours though:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.