psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @psuhoffman I'm just taking a different approach than you I guess. With everything looking like rainbows and unicorns on the horizon I always see that setting people, myself included, up for heartbreak. Believe me I'm not trying to be a Deb by any means....but I'm alternatively trying to see features which might throw a wrench into things. Guidance can argue for one thing, you and I can debate another, but when all is said and done all of us could be incorrect because the weather does what the weather wants. Let's continue the discussion tho...I enjoy being in here sharing various viewpoints. There should not be anything wrong with that. That is kind of what I do with specific events to get a feel for "what could go wrong" so that I can see if it things start to unravel. BUT...you are doing that at range regarding a whole pattern without ANY evidence to support any of the "fears". The problem with that is ANYTHING could go wrong. Maybe the PV drops too much and parks over the lakes for 2 weeks and we go cold/dry. Maybe the guidance is all wrong and the NAO never tanks. The MJO and SOI are incredibly unpredictable...maybe the SOI spikes back to +20 and the MJO goes into another 3std slow arse tour of the warm phases and the whole thing falls apart. Maybe we just get incredibly unlucky and a few storms go just south of us and a few go just north. There are so many variables that COULD go wrong from that range. But there is no evidence to support any of them at this time. Given that it feels like worrying just for the sake of worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That is kind of what I do with specific events to get a feel for "what could go wrong" so that I can see if it things start to unravel. BUT...you are doing that at range regarding a whole pattern without ANY evidence to support any of the "fears". The problem with that is ANYTHING could go wrong. Maybe the PV drops too much and parks over the lakes for 2 weeks and we go cold/dry. Maybe the guidance is all wrong and the NAO never tanks. The MJO and SOI are incredibly unpredictable...maybe the SOI spikes back to +20 and the MJO goes into another 3std slow arse tour of the warm phases and the whole thing falls apart. Maybe we just get incredibly unlucky and a few storms go just south of us and a few go just north. There are so many variables that COULD go wrong from that range. But there is no evidence to support any of them at this time. Given that it feels like worrying just for the sake of worrying. I just lost my breakfast even thinking about that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I just lost my breakfast even thinking about that lol If we fail that is the most likely way IMO...the MJO collapsed quickly once it got to cold phases...and it is now racing back towards warm phases and correcting stronger and stronger into them. HOWEVER, as of right now the SOI is cooperating and the impacts of the warm phases seem to be muted somewhat...and by Feb the MJO looks to progress either towards null or colder phases. Either way... I don't love that look. That is one thing I got wrong about the winter. Given the SST the thinking was the MJO would be muted but what little influence it had would be centered on cold phases. That has not been the cast as it obviously has a bias towards the warm phases this winter. MAG in the PA thread showed some of the MJO data from a few of our analog years and some of our snowy periods came during warm mjo phases in modoki ninos so I am not overly alarmed but it is something worth looking out for. I would be more concerned about that than the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 @psuhoffman Do you have WB access for the Euro and the EPO forecast? I heard the EPO really crashes in the next 8 to 12 days, is that true ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 icon really ramps that sunday storm up in the plains. might need a 1050 high to tame it, ala pd2 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman Do you have WB access for the Euro and the EPO forecast? I heard the EPO really crashes in the next 8 to 12 days, is that true ? Epo is currently negative and in general will be negative for the next 2 weeks and beyond. Every piece of guidance has a strong neg epo d8-15 and likely beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman Do you have WB access for the Euro and the EPO forecast? I heard the EPO really crashes in the next 8 to 12 days, is that true ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, 87storms said: icon really ramps that sunday storm up in the plains. might need a 1050 high to tame it, ala pd2 lol. Unfortunately there's no mechanism to lock hp over the top. The war let's hp easily slide east as the storm approaches and the hp behind is in a bad position too. Imho- a west track is practically a lock at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The storm next weekend is pretty much toast...unless the energy comes out in pieces and we get a trailing wave the lead wave is extremely likely to go to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The storm next weekend is pretty much toast...unless the energy comes out in pieces and we get a trailing wave the lead wave is extremely likely to go to our west. It is more like soggy cold bread - and all snow traces get washed away before the ground becomes frozen solid . But agree.. the set up is poor. Would need a miracle to change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Unfortunately there's no mechanism to lock hp over the top. The war let's hp easily slide east as the storm approaches and the hp behind is in a bad position too. Imho- a west track is practically a lock at this point. yea i think we'd need this to transfer to the carolina coast or something to make it work. as is, it's an app runner, though i wouldn't really expect that based off of the high pressure to the north. they look at least somewhat favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The storm next weekend is pretty much toast...unless the energy comes out in pieces and we get a trailing wave the lead wave is extremely likely to go to our west. The good part (if there is one) is the track is exactly what you would expect from the h5 setup. Hurts when it should work but doesn't. That's not how this one is lining up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Looks like the ICON never gets the region out of the 30's for the weekend deal. Serious wedge there. Northern MD could have quite an event if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The good part (if there is one) is the track is exactly what you would expect from the h5 setup. Hurts when it should work but doesn't. That's not how this one is lining up True...this one never really had a chance, imo. I do wish we had something else to track...but, it seems like it's gonna be a bit boring for the next week or so (unless our NEXT regularly scheduled weekend precipitation has a chance of being frozen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The good part (if there is one) is the track is exactly what you would expect from the h5 setup. Hurts when it should work but doesn't. That's not how this one is lining up So you're not totally giving up on the trailing wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 We lost the icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, DCTeacherman said: So you're not totally giving up on the trailing wave? I'll still watch for it. Absolutely within the envelope of possible solutions. We're losing the signal for it but that can change. Need the idea back before thurs or fri at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The good part (if there is one) is the track is exactly what you would expect from the h5 setup. Hurts when it should work but doesn't. That's not how this one is lining up Our best chance to steal frozen from the next couple waves after this weeks light event would be an energy split and a wave on the tail of the trough. The waves are spaced too far apart to have much chance of front end frozen it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Really looking more likely that at some point a severe drop in the AO will occur. Concensus grows, as does the increased risk of a significant snowfall near Jan 24 th based on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 everything is going to cut west for at least the next 8-9 days....Next chance is around the 25th give or take and then again around the 30th. Wouldn't be surprised if we get some small amounts from clippers as we get into later next week through month end as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Good trend on ICON. Less amped. Stronger high extends without interruption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There was a pattern change on Dec 31st that hasn't turned back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Our best chance to steal frozen from the next couple waves after this weeks light event would be an energy split and a wave on the tail of the trough. The waves are spaced too far apart to have much chance of front end frozen it seems. It's painful to be so close to the heavy snow in southern PA (according to the ICON), but just not close enough. I would've considered chasing if it wasn't going to be such an icy mess on the way back. Or maybe even the ICON is too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: It's painful to be so close to the heavy snow in southern PA (according to the ICON), but just not close enough. I would've considered chasing if it wasn't going to be such an icy mess on the way back. I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together. He is really excited. But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS is a heavy rainer. It is still keeping the second wave idea alive though. I think DC still has a chance with that. We are probably done out here for this weekend though. I am almost wishing it would cut further west at this point. We can score a couple of inches on the front end then. But that doesnt look very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together. He is really excited. But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that. Wow that sounds awesome. Hope you enjoy this one! Share some pics too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I am taking my son skiing this weekend...first ski trip together. He is really excited. But I am not stressing this storm because we can go anywhere from PA all the way up to Vermont depending on where this storm dumps the best powder...obviously I would prefer it be here but I won't mind being in Vermont skiing with my son in a foot of powder if it comes to that. I would not be thinking of the powder being the issue - the insane winds and blizzard conditions may make skiing a bit more challenging! Those isobars are packed tight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: I would not be thinking of the powder being the issue - the insane winds and blizzard conditions may make skiing a bit more challenging! Those isobars are packed tight! Storm doesn't look all that windy in northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I would not be thinking of the powder being the issue - the insane winds and blizzard conditions may make skiing a bit more challenging! Those isobars are packed tight! Winds don't look any stronger than for any typical storm in the winter up there. As of now shouldn't be too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Storm doesn't look all that windy in northern New England. Ya - ok - I just ran through it - the cold is rough! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.