January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So what is worst case scenario here? The Tpv goes against overwhelming data support and somehow meanders or wobbles into the nao region? I know that is an historically low area for a tpv TJ migrate to but just asking. Other worst case suppression city with cold cold cold but generally dry until things 'relax'?

You talking about the war more... jk

If the tpv doesn’t displace then we would be left with a similar look to feb 2015 and 2003.  That’s not the worst but I think it could be argued we got “lucky” those years. But if it’s cold we tend to get lucky in February. 2007 was also similar and an example of what that looks like if we don’t get lucky. 2007 was dry though. We went the whole first half of feb with nothing but a clipper. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who cares what the pattern was a few months ago?  Since the cold season began in November the war has not been a primary problem. It’s only popped up in a transient way. By my count we have had about 7 percent track stj features. 2 were frozen. The rest rain because of the pacific not the atl.  There was one system that got suppressed south. We only had a few cutters but at least one was a NS feature that cut because the baroclinic zone was way up north because of the pac. I can only remember 2 storms all winter season that were stj and cut because of the WAR. 75% of our synoptic systems have been tracking perfect at h5. That’s a great rate. Problem was no cold because of the epo pna. I don’t know why your on this war thing. It’s been a non issue this winter only popping a couple of times and being transient and this next bout looks transient also as just a one week step in a transition period. 

Because the WAR is a huge player right now and one of the key if not primary catalyst in driving the upcoming epic pattern looks as it is 'supposed' to migrate into the NAO region. Historically yes it does do that. But I am drawing on autumn because when it was progged to migrate at that time it did not it flattened and headed across the Atlantic. That's why I am 'on this war thing' as you put it. You are arguing a pattern change yet you are  neglecting to talk about one of the key drivers then tossing any historical movement of that feature we've seen over the past 6 months. You cant cherry pick like that. 

With that said I do believe we see it move into the NAO because climo-wise this is historically the time of year which favors that progression of the pattern.

I'm sorry I brought it up....I thought it was relevant to the pattern discussion. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

@psuhoffman I'm just taking a different approach than you I guess. With everything looking like rainbows and unicorns on the horizon I always see that setting people, myself included, up for heartbreak. Believe me I'm not trying to be a Deb by any means....but I'm alternatively trying to see features which might throw a wrench into things. Guidance can argue for one thing, you and I can debate another, but when all is said and done all of us could be incorrect because the weather does what the weather wants.  Let's continue the discussion tho...I enjoy being in here sharing various viewpoints. There should not be anything wrong with that.

[CAPE]

58 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Thanks. I always recalled it just being called the polar vortex or PV. I guess it's interchangeable?

TPV is different than the SPV. We can 'see' the TPV on an h5 panel, and it is what more directly influences the sensible weather.

Good technical read here:

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/waugh/research/polarvortex/

 

[winterymix]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@psuhoffman I'm just taking a different approach than you I guess. With everything looking like rainbows and unicorns on the horizon I always see that setting people, myself included, up for heartbreak. Believe me I'm not trying to be a Deb by any means....but I'm alternatively trying to see features which might throw a wrench into things. Guidance can argue for one thing, you and I can debate another, but when all is said and done all of us could be incorrect because the weather does what the weather wants.  Let's continue the discussion tho...I enjoy being in here sharing various viewpoints. There should not be anything wrong with that.

At the very least, Ohio to SNE will be snow covered for weeks and that may cool our boundarylayer for February.  Patience.

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Because the WAR is a huge player right now and one of the key if not primary catalyst in driving the upcoming epic pattern looks as it is 'supposed' to migrate into the NAO region. Historically yes it does do that. But I am drawing on autumn because when it was progged to migrate at that time it did not it flattened and headed across the Atlantic. That's why I am 'on this war thing' as you put it. You are arguing a pattern change yet you are  neglecting to talk about one of the key drivers then tossing any historical movement of that feature we've seen over the past 6 months. You cant cherry pick like that. 

With that said I do believe we see it move into the NAO because climo-wise this is historically the time of year which favors that progression of the pattern.

I'm sorry I brought it up....I thought it was relevant to the pattern discussion. 

But its not a HUGE player. We do get WAR from time to time. It seems you are making a big deal out of this because you predicted it would be a prominent feature in your winter outlook.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Because the WAR is a huge player right now and one of the key if not primary catalyst in driving the upcoming epic pattern looks as it is 'supposed' to migrate into the NAO region. Historically yes it does do that. But I am drawing on autumn because when it was progged to migrate at that time it did not it flattened and headed across the Atlantic. That's why I am 'on this war thing' as you put it. You are arguing a pattern change yet you are  neglecting to talk about one of the key drivers then tossing any historical movement of that feature we've seen over the past 6 months. You cant cherry pick like that. 

With that said I do believe we see it move into the NAO because climo-wise this is historically the time of year which favors that progression of the pattern.

I'm sorry I brought it up....I thought it was relevant to the pattern discussion. 

?  In November the last time the war formed and was progged to migrate to the NAO it did.  NAO ranked for 10 days late November. Just because we didn’t get a snowstorm doesn’t mean the pattern didn’t happen. 

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

dick.

yeah you aren't going to do that again. 

[mappy]

@psuhoffman your response was great, but i had to hide it anyways to end it  

[midatlanticweather]

Should we start a new Mid long term and stretch long range? This one got muddy and ugly there and things are different than they looked at one time. 138 pages is a huge thread!

We need to be cleaner in general! We banter too many times (guilty myself) - and the bad vibes of the last page just suck for everyone!

 

[lpaschall]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah you aren't going to do that again. 

Thanks Mappy.

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

But its not a HUGE player. We do get WAR from time to time. It seems you are making a big deal out of this because you predicted it would be a prominent feature in your winter outlook.

Sure there is no doubt. But I have been wrong up til just recently because it all but completely vanished or was at least put on the back burner with all the mjo and ssw talk. Let's look forward and hope the weeklies et al verify and never look back. Dec and most of Jan til recently blew chunks. Cautiously optimistic here still. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

?  In November the last time the war formed and was progged to migrate to the NAO it did.  NAO ranked for 10 days late November. Just because we didn’t get a snowstorm doesn’t mean the pattern didn’t happen. 

Hopefully these looks moving ahead stick and key features migrate to where they are being progged and have some lasting power not just a week and done. Tho at this point I will take what we get. 

Btw is it odd that you guys got your best snows (general DC area) with a pos nao as opposed to the rebounding neg transition to pos back in Nov? That nov nao flip (archambault?) is traditionally when we score more often than during  a sustained pos nao no? 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

@psuhoffman your response was great, but i had to hide it anyways to end it  

Thanks for the clean up. Totally understand. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for the clean up. Totally understand. 

What'd I miss  ?

[snowmagnet]

26 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Should we start a new Mid long term and stretch long range? This one got muddy and ugly there and things are different than they looked at one time. 138 pages is a huge thread!

We need to be cleaner in general! We banter too many times (guilty myself) - and the bad vibes of the last page just suck for everyone!

 

I’m wondering when a thread might be started for the 20th-21st?  I get that we don’t like to jinx our threats, but it looks like there is either going to be rain then a flash freeze and then snow, or snow, rain, ice, or whatever. My concern is that a lot of people are traveling for the MLK weekend..  it’s now 6 days away. 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hopefully these looks moving ahead stick and key features migrate to where they are being progged and have some lasting power not just a week and done. Tho at this point I will take what we get. 

Btw is it odd that you guys got your best snows (general DC area) with a pos nao as opposed to the rebounding neg transition to pos back in Nov? That nov nao flip (archambault?) is traditionally when we score more often than during  a sustained pos nao no? 

November is a bit early and the NAO correlates more later in the season. Also often blocking during transition months is less stable. And finally this one is coupled to the sswe so it should have more staying power like the blocking last March. 

[midatlanticweather]

10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m wondering when a thread might be started for the 20th-21st?  I get that we don’t like to jinx our threats, but it looks like there is either going to be rain then a flash freeze and then snow, or snow, rain, ice, or whatever. My concern is that a lot of people are traveling for the MLK weekend..  it’s now 6 days away. 

Way too many unknowns. About all we can really say is that a threat exists and it maybe a flash freeze, snow, ice possible but could be rain and a quick cutoff (we do not do post-frontal snow all that well). We have to get closer to the event and have some sense of consistency. If we lived in PA or north, I would consider it more something worth it. I think we are 2 days (at least) early on this idea. 

[Ji]

Not giving up yet

[Eskimo Joe]

^Another 100 to 150 miles east shift please.

[frd]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

here you go, sorry it's so late

First the pattern is evolving as expected. 

Thanks @psuhoffman I will check it out this morning.  I do see the overnight hours brought some more confidence in the NAO going negative and other positives changes. 

As for the strat, continued indications of downward propagation, ( at bottom )  

Alos reading from bluewave this is possibly the first time in Jan the MJO went from 8 to 4 and 5 skipping 1, and 2 and 3 , crazy, right.  This explains the temp swings next week but looking at the MJO down the road it should coincide with the better phases later month around the time the -NAO develops. And the EPS made some changes towards the GEFS ( as purduewx80 summarizes below )

From a few minutes ago -  Courtesy of @purduewx80   <<EPS made some changes towards the GEFS in the extended. Even if this weekend doesn't pan out, there is pretty good agreement that storm helps turn the NAO negative early next week. Many of the ensembles now bridge that NW Atlantic ridge with a NE Pac ridge in a couple of weeks, which locks the PV in place somewhere between Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. A fun and intense pattern by the looks of it. >>>

And the Judah post :

 

 

 

 

 

[SnowGolfBro]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not giving up yet

Not giving up on this one until Friday.  Need to see the little wave come through on Thursday night first

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

42 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not giving up yet

It's probably going to trend wetter now. 

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks @psuhoffman I will check it out this morning.  I do see the overnight hours brought some more confidence in the NAO going negative and other positives changes. 

As for the strat, continued indications of downward propagation, ( at bottom )  

Alos reading from bluewave this is possibly the first time in Jan the MJO went from 8 to 4 and 5 skipping 1, and 2 and 3 , crazy, right.  This explains the temp swings next week but looking at the MJO down the road it should coincide with the better phases later month around the time the -NAO develops. And the EPS made some changes towards the GEFS ( as purduewx80 summarizes below )

From a few minutes ago -  Courtesy of @purduewx80   <<EPS made some changes towards the GEFS in the extended. Even if this weekend doesn't pan out, there is pretty good agreement that storm helps turn the NAO negative early next week. Many of the ensembles now bridge that NW Atlantic ridge with a NE Pac ridge in a couple of weeks, which locks the PV in place somewhere between Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes. A fun and intense pattern by the looks of it. >>>

And the Judah post :

 

 

 

 

 

Good stuff. If we can get similar results to last years sswe induced blocking only centered in Feb instead of March we will be good. 

[Steve25]

I feel like this Sunday is setting up to be the classic rain then wind then the huge temperature drop. At least in my neck of the woods(Baltimore). Still several days out so maybe it can change, just has that look. 

[psuhoffman]

Snow means on the GEFS are useless in general but sometimes there are subtle "tells" I like to look for.  Forget the LOL totals around us, but notice the fairly significant snowfall down along the lower Mississippi Valley into the TN Valley to our southwest.  Almost all of that south of the TN/KY border is from day 10-16 and that is a pretty good flag that we might be in line for a typical STJ based "blocking" storm track out of the gulf.  Something to keep and eye on as we head into the period post January 25.  

The EPS is less enthused.  Not because they are not cold but because they seem to favor the STJ shutting down once we move past the 3rd system coming next week so they have a cold/dry look.  However, I have seen that before plenty of times during extreme blocking regimes where at range the EPS is dry only to pick up on a threat once it gets towards day 10.  We will see.   I will admit it will be a little frustrating if we get a string of rainstorms and then an arctic front clears and we go dry for weeks on end.  Too soon to worry about that yet.  

[Yeoman]

Just now, Steve25 said:

I feel like this Sunday is setting up to be the classic rain then wind then the huge temperature drop. At least in my neck of the woods(Baltimore). Still several days out so maybe it can change, just has that look. 

thanks

[87storms]

i wouldn't be surprised to see sunday trending a little colder on the front side.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The EPS is less enthused.  Not because they are not cold but because they seem to favor the STJ shutting down once we move past the 3rd system coming next week so they have a cold/dry look.  However, I have seen that before plenty of times during extreme blocking regimes where at range the EPS is dry only to pick up on a threat once it gets towards day 10.  We will see.   I will admit it will be a little frustrating if we get a string of rainstorms and then an arctic front clears and we go dry for weeks on end.  Too soon to worry about that yet.  

Always things to worry about in the weather world. Did we not have that dry look before in very early December ?

It was seasonable cold I recall, but about 12 days in a row of no rain nor snow.  I remember telling my daughter ever since I put the Christmas lights up outside it has been dry. I put them up earlier this early versus most  years as I thought we were going to get nailed near mid month, alas that did not happen.    

I do feel there will be storm oppurtunities if the pattern as depicted sets up.

 

[anotherman]

23 minutes ago, frd said:

Always things to worry about in the weather world. Did we not have that dry look before in very early December ?

It was seasonable cold I recall, but about 12 days in a row of no rain nor snow.  I remember telling my daughter ever since I put the Christmas lights up outside it has been dry. I put them up earlier this early versus most  years as I thought we were going to get nailed near mid month, alas that did not happen.    

I do feel there will be storm oppurtunities if the pattern as depicted sets up.

 

I was just talking to someone yesterday about my lights.  Right after I put them up, we went into a snow drought.  The day I took them down, it snowed.