January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

@Plow'n

Glad to help. This site is great. Well... as long as you can weed through the insanity, meltdowns, rants, pity parties, irrational thoughts, trolling, and infighting you can access really accurate winter wx analysis 24 hours a day!

[yoda]

There still must be a few huge hits in the GEFS... day 5 at DCA snowfall mean is 1 inch... day 7 is 5.5 inches

[Bob Chill]

Just now, yoda said:

There still must be a few huge hits in the GEFS... day 5 at DCA snowfall mean is 1 inch... day 7 is 5.5 inches

Trailing wave idea is very much alive. 18z was better but we're not out of it yet. 

[Plow'n]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

@Plow'n

Glad to help. This site is great. Well... as long as you can weed through the insanity, meltdowns, rants, pity parties, irrational thoughts, trolling, and infighting you can access really accurate winter wx analysis 24 hours a day!

Mostly meltdowns lol, some live run to run. Some hate snow it seems. Thank you all, seriously.. you can't and won't find more updated minute by minute weather discussion anywhere else where you can actually learn from too. In my 50000+ hours of snow removal and actually being in the storms I've noticed one trend, when storms over achieve they tend to bring buddies with them. Models don't agree with my gut, but my gut says busy 2 weeks ahead so drink up now!

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Trailing wave idea is very much alive. 18z was better but we're not out of it yet. 

8 of the 20 including the control drop close to 6 inches or more through 168

[yoda]

The UKIE is somewhat better... not great, but it's still moving SE with the SLP every run.  

132 its strung out in SW VA... but 138 its strung out in SE VA and 144 its SE of Long Island

[yoda]

Probably mostly rain, but the 00z UKMET is also very wet through 144 with 2"+ QPF with still some more to come after

[psuhoffman]

The flip on the Atlantic side happens between the 25-28th on the eps GEFS and geps. Let’s keep those dates in mind to see if it continues to stay locked and move closer in future runs.

By the end of the GEFS tonight there are signs the tpv is migrating towards the 50/50 space and the troughs between here and Europe want to link. That would be our money look. 

 

[southmdwatcher]

UKMET certainly has snow DC and south at 144....heavy snow in central VA...as per F5/former EuroWX

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

UKMET certainly has snow DC and south at 144....heavy snow in central VA...as per F5/former EuroWX

Are you allowed to post 144?  Or is it paywalled?  And what about 138?

[southmdwatcher]

UKMET has surface temperatures near 32 at 138, falling into the teens at 144 at DCA. RIC is 60 at 138 falling to 21 at 144. 700 mb level humidity is near 100 percent from the Blue Ridge to the coast at 144, 850mb humidity is near 100 percent from Columbia MD...Warrenton...CHO and east at 144

[southmdwatcher]

I am pretty sure it is paywalled.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

I am pretty sure it is paywalled.

Okay, thanks for the details though.  Appreciate it.  I'm gathering at 138 then it's a mix at DCA precip wise then

[yoda]

This looks nice... taken from the SNE forum

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

UkieU

 

[southmdwatcher]

Verbatim UKMET is 5 to 10 inch snows from southern MD along eastern side of DC up to Wilmington DE. Then 12+ northeast from there. Richmond area and up toward Eastern Shore has another smaller area of 6 to 12 inch snow blossoming. Some ice, but minimal. With that flash freeze I am not so sure about that.

[southmdwatcher]

That map above looks more realistic. Unfortunately...LOL

[yoda]

Guess the precip at 138 is rain on the 00z Euro tonight even though the temp is in the 20s...

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

Guess the precip at 138 is rain on the 00z Euro tonight even though the temp is in the 20s...

0z Euro is a warmer run. Cold chasing rain. Not much snow anywhere locally- maybe an inch for PSU land.

Hell of a run for NE Ohio through NY State to N NE. 20"+

[Fozz]

I'm hugging the UKMET.

[Fozz]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The flip on the Atlantic side happens between the 25-28th on the eps GEFS and geps. Let’s keep those dates in mind to see if it continues to stay locked and move closer in future runs.

By the end of the GEFS tonight there are signs the tpv is migrating towards the 50/50 space and the troughs between here and Europe want to link. That would be our money look. 

Quick question: what is the "tpv", and what is the WAR? I've seen those two terms thrown around only in recent days but I'm not so familiar with them.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Quick question: what is the "tpv", and what is the WAR? I've seen those two terms thrown around only in recent days but I'm not so familiar with them.

Tropospheric Polar Vortex

Western Atlantic Ridge

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Tropospheric Polar Vortex

Western Atlantic Ridge

Thanks. I always recalled it just being called the polar vortex or PV. I guess it's interchangeable?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6Z GEFS still likes the idea of some back end stuff, mean snowfall across our area jumps a bunch sunday. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd here you go, sorry it's so late

First the pattern is evolving as expected.  I went back and looked at the long range guidance from the last 10 days or so to see if the good look was getting pushed back and maybe we were getting teased but that is not the case on the euro guidance.  Going back several runs the EPO was slated to flip mid month...that came early, and the NAO was then ambiguous and supposed to flip negative around January 25-28th and that is still the target.  Before that...during the transition, the euro did a pretty good job showing what is coming...the WAR is there on the last few weeklies runs for this time period coming up.  The GEFS guidance has been too fast with developing a -NAO and has been pushing it back...but the GEFS often is too fast with pattern flips and so this doesn't shock me.  But we should see it start to move ahead in time now that it has come into alignment with all the other guidance.  Speaking of that...EVERYTHING now shows the same pattern evolution.  CFS/GEFS/EPS/UKMET/JMA...is amazing.  There must be some pretty strong pattern drivers forcing this such that they override the chaos that typically infects guidance at that range and steers them all to the same result.  That doesn't mean it has to be right but it should increase confidence.  The fact that a LOT of the analogs also support this pattern should also lend confidence for such a long range forecast.  I still expect we will be in the ideal pattern by February and after that it should persist probably into March. At that point we dont need good luck...we just need to avoid bad luck to score.

But before that the pattern isn't hopeless but it is less than idea.  We have snowed in a -epo/WAR pattern before but we have also failed.  Where the TPV sets up, whether energy ejects consolidated or weaker pieces ride the boundary, and timing between waves will determine our fate.  Any amped up system is likely to cut.  Strung out waves can work.  A trailing wave on the heels of a wave that drives the boundary south can work.  There are several such systems showing up in the day 5/8/11 analogs. 

For the first ngsignificant system next weekend the majority of the analogs favor rain.  The ice storms in 2007 and 1994 do show up though and there was a rain to 1-3" snow event in 1984 in there.  The only sig snow in the analogs was 1/2/2014.  There were several others that were ok for the northern 1/3 of this forum.  2-5-14, 2-16-1993, and 2-15-2013 all featured decent snow there.  2-5-14 was a 2 part wave idea.  That kind of system shows up a lot in the analog years so that can't be discounted.  But overall rain is favored 70/30 in the analogs. 

After that looking at the day 8/11 analogs there is a bit more good looks.  Years that showed up and worked were early Feb 2003, 1995, 1967, and 2006 all with a big snow within a few days of the analog date.  early January 1977 wasnt bad either with a couple decent snowfalls around that date.  Also there were years that were OK like 1-12-09, 1-22-1963, 1-20-1975, and the January 94 ice storm.  Those years all featured some snow/ice.  Then there were a few years without anything frozen of note.  But most of those, oddly enough, also had very little precip at all.  Many of them were totally dry around the analog dates.  There were very few rainy years.  That suggest its been rare to have a very active stj during this type of pattern...but the years that were active ended to be "white". 

Overall...it seems 1/3 featured a big frozen event, 1/3 a minor one, and 1/3 nothing.  The odds were increased in the northern part of our forum.  Playing those odds I expect we likely see some frozen the next 2 weeks...but our odds of a big storm are only 30-50% depending on where you live in the forum.  Those aren't bad odds but not epic either.  I think after this period we will see a look where we will have a better than 50/50 chance of a snow event.

A few things to note...the atmosphere seems to have coupled with the SST and so another run through the warm phases of the MJO might not have the same impact.  During a nino the MJO influence is muted some.  So long as we dont get a SLOW STRONG wave like last time I doubt we see the same drastic impacts on the pattern.  That is not to say a wave through phases 5/6 is a good thing...it probably is partly to blame for the PNA pulling back a bit too far west and creating the rain threats coming up...but we are talking about it spending a week in the warm phases before heading towards the promised land again anyways, and a wave during a nino pattern where the impacts might be muted some.   That would be something to keep an eye on though.  If the SOI were to spike, and the MJO were to go ape sh*t into warm phases and stall again...that could derail things.  I see no sign of that right now.  A quick traverse wont hurt much.  Some of the best winter weather in analog years actually came during warm phases of the mjo but AFTER a cold phase set off the chain reaction and the atmosphere coupled with the nino sst.  So a warm phase MJO isnt a death sentence this time.

Also I don't share the fear of some about miller b's this year.  The STJ is raging and has been all winter.  It keeps throwing juiced up waves at us every 3 days all winter season.  I don't think that will just stop once the NAO goes negative.  Some of those waves will get suppressed and crushed but we wont suddenly not have an STJ and a northern stream dominant pattern.  There would be no reason for that kind of change.  IN the years that were NS dominant that was evident even before blocking showed up.  We have seen no indication of that this year. 

So I think we have a chance the next 2 weeks but we need to get lucky with the timing of the waves and the location of the TPV.  After that I think we will get to "the pattern" we have been waiting for.  Nothing has changed that has me worried as of right now. 

 

 

So in summary there is a pattern change coming with some epic teleconnection looks that could possibly produce but possibly fail and the best shot at cashing in may have been pre pattern change (the one u just had on sunday) and later when the pattern breaks down which is a long ways out? Hopefully if we go cold and dry we can break some some records irt the temps.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

Ouch......where is the blocking

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019011500&fh=240

Well it's an op so theres that....grain of salt. What hurts is seeing that war starting become more recurring like we saw back a few months ago. That thing was progged to migrate into nao territory but kept failing things up. As long as the overwhelming data is right this time it will move into the nao and overwhelm the east with cold. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So in summary there is a pattern change coming with some epic teleconnection looks that could possibly produce but possibly fail and the best shot at cashing in may have been pre pattern change (the one u just had on sunday) and later when the pattern breaks down which is a long ways out? Hopefully if we go cold and dry we can break some some records irt the temps.

That sounds like your summary definitely not mine. 

[aldie 22]

You can tell who hasn't gotten snow yet

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That sounds like your summary definitely not mine. 

Sorry maybe I was reading between the lines too much. I went back thru this post and did see where u made a call that you favor the epic look producing white for us and probably a good amt. Didnt have coffee when I read it first. Just saw a bunch of analog data and how they were essentially mixed with 1/3 saying something 1/3 something else and the other 1/3 another. Should have read deeper. My bad man.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The flip on the Atlantic side happens between the 25-28th on the eps GEFS and geps. Let’s keep those dates in mind to see if it continues to stay locked and move closer in future runs.

By the end of the GEFS tonight there are signs the tpv is migrating towards the 50/50 space and the troughs between here and Europe want to link. That would be our money look. 

 

So what is worst case scenario here? The Tpv goes against overwhelming data support and somehow meanders or wobbles into the nao region? I know that is an historically low area for a tpv TJ migrate to but just asking. Other worst case suppression city with cold cold cold but generally dry until things 'relax'?

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well it's an op so theres that....grain of salt. What hurts is seeing that war starting become more recurring like we saw back a few months ago. That thing was progged to migrate into nao territory but kept failing things up. As long as the overwhelming data is right this time it will move into the nao and overwhelm the east with cold. 

Who cares what the pattern was a few months ago?  Since the cold season began in November the war has not been a primary problem. It’s only popped up in a transient way. By my count we have had about 7 perfect track stj features. 2 were frozen. The rest rain because of the pacific not the atl.  There was one system that got suppressed south. We only had a few cutters but at least one was a NS feature that cut because the baroclinic zone was way up north because of the pac. I can only remember 2 storms all winter season that were stj and cut because of the WAR. 75% of our synoptic systems have been tracking perfect at h5. That’s a great rate. Problem was no cold because of the epo pna. I don’t know why your on this war thing. It’s been a non issue this winter only popping a couple of times and being transient and this next bout looks transient also as just a one week step in a transition period.