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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

nj2va

By nj2va,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Definitely more confluence, but I don't think it will be enough for us.  But maybe it's making a move toward what we want.

It's a difficult road to get that lead wave to not rain on us. 2-3 more ticks like that and we'll get a thump before the flip. Still in the game for now at least. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That is a potent second wave on the GFS. Dont know if its going to help us though.

DC gets into the snow at 141. A little late for those of us out west.

Prob a good sign that it held onto the idea of a trailer at least.  It's a razor thin margin between nothing and something and we'll get a lot of looks next 2-3 days before it's mostly locked in.

Interested in the gefs to see if the hive mentality kicks in or if it diverges from the op. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

@frd here you go, sorry it's so late

First the pattern is evolving as expected.  I went back and looked at the long range guidance from the last 10 days or so to see if the good look was getting pushed back and maybe we were getting teased but that is not the case on the euro guidance.  Going back several runs the EPO was slated to flip mid month...that came early, and the NAO was then ambiguous and supposed to flip negative around January 25-28th and that is still the target.  Before that...during the transition, the euro did a pretty good job showing what is coming...the WAR is there on the last few weeklies runs for this time period coming up.  The GEFS guidance has been too fast with developing a -NAO and has been pushing it back...but the GEFS often is too fast with pattern flips and so this doesn't shock me.  But we should see it start to move ahead in time now that it has come into alignment with all the other guidance.  Speaking of that...EVERYTHING now shows the same pattern evolution.  CFS/GEFS/EPS/UKMET/JMA...is amazing.  There must be some pretty strong pattern drivers forcing this such that they override the chaos that typically infects guidance at that range and steers them all to the same result.  That doesn't mean it has to be right but it should increase confidence.  The fact that a LOT of the analogs also support this pattern should also lend confidence for such a long range forecast.  I still expect we will be in the ideal pattern by February and after that it should persist probably into March. At that point we dont need good luck...we just need to avoid bad luck to score.

But before that the pattern isn't hopeless but it is less than idea.  We have snowed in a -epo/WAR pattern before but we have also failed.  Where the TPV sets up, whether energy ejects consolidated or weaker pieces ride the boundary, and timing between waves will determine our fate.  Any amped up system is likely to cut.  Strung out waves can work.  A trailing wave on the heels of a wave that drives the boundary south can work.  There are several such systems showing up in the day 5/8/11 analogs. 

For the first ngsignificant system next weekend the majority of the analogs favor rain.  The ice storms in 2007 and 1994 do show up though and there was a rain to 1-3" snow event in 1984 in there.  The only sig snow in the analogs was 1/2/2014.  There were several others that were ok for the northern 1/3 of this forum.  2-5-14, 2-16-1993, and 2-15-2013 all featured decent snow there.  2-5-14 was a 2 part wave idea.  That kind of system shows up a lot in the analog years so that can't be discounted.  But overall rain is favored 70/30 in the analogs. 

After that looking at the day 8/11 analogs there is a bit more good looks.  Years that showed up and worked were early Feb 2003, 1995, 1967, and 2006 all with a big snow within a few days of the analog date.  early January 1977 wasnt bad either with a couple decent snowfalls around that date.  Also there were years that were OK like 1-12-09, 1-22-1963, 1-20-1975, and the January 94 ice storm.  Those years all featured some snow/ice.  Then there were a few years without anything frozen of note.  But most of those, oddly enough, also had very little precip at all.  Many of them were totally dry around the analog dates.  There were very few rainy years.  That suggest its been rare to have a very active stj during this type of pattern...but the years that were active ended to be "white". 

Overall...it seems 1/3 featured a big frozen event, 1/3 a minor one, and 1/3 nothing.  The odds were increased in the northern part of our forum.  Playing those odds I expect we likely see some frozen the next 2 weeks...but our odds of a big storm are only 30-50% depending on where you live in the forum.  Those aren't bad odds but not epic either.  I think after this period we will see a look where we will have a better than 50/50 chance of a snow event.

A few things to note...the atmosphere seems to have coupled with the SST and so another run through the warm phases of the MJO might not have the same impact.  During a nino the MJO influence is muted some.  So long as we dont get a SLOW STRONG wave like last time I doubt we see the same drastic impacts on the pattern.  That is not to say a wave through phases 5/6 is a good thing...it probably is partly to blame for the PNA pulling back a bit too far west and creating the rain threats coming up...but we are talking about it spending a week in the warm phases before heading towards the promised land again anyways, and a wave during a nino pattern where the impacts might be muted some.   That would be something to keep an eye on though.  If the SOI were to spike, and the MJO were to go ape sh*t into warm phases and stall again...that could derail things.  I see no sign of that right now.  A quick traverse wont hurt much.  Some of the best winter weather in analog years actually came during warm phases of the mjo but AFTER a cold phase set off the chain reaction and the atmosphere coupled with the nino sst.  So a warm phase MJO isnt a death sentence this time.

Also I don't share the fear of some about miller b's this year.  The STJ is raging and has been all winter.  It keeps throwing juiced up waves at us every 3 days all winter season.  I don't think that will just stop once the NAO goes negative.  Some of those waves will get suppressed and crushed but we wont suddenly not have an STJ and a northern stream dominant pattern.  There would be no reason for that kind of change.  IN the years that were NS dominant that was evident even before blocking showed up.  We have seen no indication of that this year. 

So I think we have a chance the next 2 weeks but we need to get lucky with the timing of the waves and the location of the TPV.  After that I think we will get to "the pattern" we have been waiting for.  Nothing has changed that has me worried as of right now. 

 

 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a difficult road to get that lead wave to not rain on us. 2-3 more ticks like that and we'll get a thump before the flip. Still in the game for now at least. 

Yeah this doesn't seem to be worth the energy of looking for snow out of it, lol Feel like we're really gonna be straining for flakes here! (Perhaps until the backend? And even then it's gonna be kinda difficult, right?)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
Definitely not as good as 18z snow wise

Fv3?

Gives vermont 3' and big totals interior ne but no love for us. Gfs/fv3/gfs all gave us mostly rain. Gfs and cmc we're a little colder though. I've mostly written off this one because the upper level setup is not a way we score here. Enough interesting looks to keep us entertained for now. Not totally out until it's locked in. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Gives vermont 3' and big totals interior ne but no love for us. Gfs/fv3/gfs all gave us mostly rain. Gfs and cmc we're a little colder though. I've mostly written off this one because the upper level setup is not a way we score here. Enough interesting looks to keep us entertained for now. Not totally out until it's locked in. 
We had some amazing snow maps with this storm....disappointing turn....somehow we turned it into mild rain lol
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Gives vermont 3' and big totals interior ne but no love for us. Gfs/fv3/gfs all gave us mostly rain. Gfs and cmc we're a little colder though. I've mostly written off this one because the upper level setup is not a way we score here. Enough interesting looks to keep us entertained for now. Not totally out until it's locked in. 

We had some amazing snow maps with this storm....disappointing turn....somehow we turned it into mild rain lol

Still going to be a big snowstorm not too far away. There's a reason many areas north of us average 2-3 times what we do. Over 80% of our winter precip is rain even during good snow winters. Never fun but always plenty of it

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Still going to be a big snowstorm not too far away. There's a reason many areas north of us average 2-3 times what we do. Over 80% of our winter precip is rain even during good snow winters. Never fun but always plenty of it
If the gfs is right....we will be renewing the meltdowns lol
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Still going to be a big snowstorm not too far away. There's a reason many areas north of us average 2-3 times what we do. Over 80% of our winter precip is rain even during good snow winters. Never fun but always plenty of it

If the gfs is right....we will be renewing the meltdowns lol

Don't even look at the fv3...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gfs_namer_210_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Plow'n

Plow'n

Posted
Posted

I still owe mr chill a few beers from helping me successfully conduct my snow removal business during last years march storm. I continue to monitor this site and especially the mid to long range forum. I thank all of you for your input, it helps me plan so much and it's entertaining as well! It blows my mind you guys love snow so much lmao.. what i will say is 2 weeks ago we were talking about a torch.. because of this site i locked in on 6"+ in columbia and it worked, most "tv weatherman " were saying 2-3", i planned according to psu and chill and always will! Thanks guys. Keep the faith!

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