Jebman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Back in 1985 I think it was (I am getting kind of old these days) when we had a massive arctic surge, Jan 21, front hit overnight, dumped a couple inches of snow, fell to -2 then the high was 2 above then it fell to -14 which is the coldest I have ever personally experienced, along with northerly 35 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Don't think I went under 0 last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: Don't think I went under 0 last winter It would've for sure if we had snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 27 minutes ago, Amped said: This is why the FV3 is still experimental. Maybe not on crack ..............BANG courtesy 33andrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FV3 isn't on crack. It's a signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Anthony on a roll tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 40 minutes ago, Amped said: This is why the FV3 is still experimental. especially at hr 354 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 38 minutes ago, RDM said: A potentially feigned attempt to draw another analogy to this setup.... Comparing this to the world of fluid dynamics in rivers, where eddy currents form on the edge of whirlpools that's are then sucked downstream by the main flow of the river. In this case, the ULL at the bottom of the trough generates the lead wave as a byproduct of the ULL's rotation. The lead wave is driven up the trough by the UL jet, while the main ULL digs in before moving on itself. Does that make sense? Thanks guys. I see the 500 vor panels and understand what you are saying, but we’ve seen strung out looks many times before. the trailing wave thing just seems like it’s popping up in medium range. This upcoming weekend storm makes more sense as there is more forcing with the cold ie better baroclinic zone for vorts to ride along but yesterday did not have such forcing yet in effect a similar result imo. (Yes I know it was a coastal) and it popped up in medium range. Here’s to strung out vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Week 5 is basically ridiculous on the weeklies. We only need it to be half right to score. The real fun starts when blocking gets so strong that SC scores huge while we have endless sunny days below freezing. Week 4 and 5 on the weeklies made me blush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Oy Gevalt!! Wow sub 500dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Funny....the coldest air I have ever experienced was in VT. 12 hours before the blizzard of 96 I was leaving Killington trying to beat the snow home. Bank clock in Rutland read -29. Once I hit Reading PA is was a serious white knuckler all the way to FDK. I lived in Vermont for 7 years. Locals considered it a cold morning if the inside of your nose immediately froze when you went outside, which kicked in at around -15. That is a sensation you’ll never forget after you feel it once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: For those of us without subscriptions, here is a free site for comparing ensemble trends. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t85p&HH=120&BASE=201901141200&WMO=&ZOOM=0 Thanks, valuable contribution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Latest from NWS: A more significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of deterministic....blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said: Latest from NWS: A more significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of deterministic....blah blah Like seeing then "blah blah" in an otherwise professional post, lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Like seeing then "blah blah" in an otherwise professional post, lolol Maybe the shutdown is getting to them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Like seeing then "blah blah" in an otherwise professional post, lolol I thought the very same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Latest from NWS: A more significant storm will impact the region next weekend. Nearly all guidance (deterministic and ensemble) shows an amplifying longwave trough and strong surface low approaching from the southwest Saturday night into Sunday. The system appears to be quite dynamic in nature, and will produce a swath of substantial precipitation across the eastern third of the Continental U.S.. exact impacts locally will be highly dependent on the exact track that the surface low takes. If the storm tracks to our northwest, temperatures could potentially reach into the low 60s, while on the other hand if it tracks to our southeast we could be dealing with a major winter storm. If we end up on the warm side of the system, flooding could be a concern with high quantitative precipitation forecast amounts (eps and gefs ensemble means are both in excess of an inch) falling on whatever residual snowpack exists from this past weekend's storm. The last few model runs have been trending slightly warmer with the system, but it's far too early to make any kind of deterministic....blah blah In other words, they're saying there's a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yes. 70 degrees or a blizzard. One would think it’s March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Tip will pass out if he ever reads the end of that disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Wonder if the models lock onto the blocking and makes verification skils higher in terms of better forecasts. Lately per Ryan both the GFS and Euro doing well. For the GFS a big step up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Icon looks good for the weekend event, maintains a colder solution . Seems to move off the Tidewater region and travels up to the near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 There's going to be more blizzards modeled before the weekend. The question is how close to the event will that happen? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Icon looks good for the weekend event, maintains a colder solution . Seems to move off the Tidewater region and travels up to the near the BM. It is an ice storm. And a nasty one at that. Rain falling into the low 20s out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 This is why we don't use the Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe the shutdown is getting to them... Uh-oh...If this goes on through the week, the posts are probably gonna sound like: "blah blah weather blah blah cols stormy blah...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It is an ice storm. And a nasty one at that. Rain falling into the low 20s out this way. Are you sure it’s zr and not sleet? For the sake of all our modern livelihoods, I really hope it’s sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: This is why we don't use the Icon Ha. Good post. You look at the precip panel and you would swear it's like 50 and just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: Are you sure it’s zr and not sleet I really hope it’s sleet. Dont know precip type. Only that the 850's are roasting and the surface is in the low 20's. It would be bad. really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ha. Good post. You look at the precip panel and you would swear it's like 50 and just rain. You would think right? But what's really odd is the icon never flips 10m winds to south. Check all the panels leading in and as it passes. Northerly flow the whole time. Best i can tell the model develops low pressure along the baroclinic zone off the coast and it deflects the ripping south winds into the atlantic. Our area never loses northerly surface flow during the entire event. The red flag is i cant recall a single winter storm with this track that doesn't give us a dose of warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 And here comes the gfs with more confluence. Will be colder. Seasonal trend at work? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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