January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

53 degrees at 7 AM with rain and then 15 degrees at 1 PM with heavy ice/snow. Sounds unlikely lol

Thundersnows?? 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

That graphic really shows the ensemble wanting to blow up the trailing wave on Sunday afternoon. I’d call that a signal.

Wow yeah.  EPS snow mean jumps up around that time period as well so I think it’s got the same idea.  Imagine we score twice before the pattern even changes lol. 

[Bob Chill]

Now THIS is a blue ball! Looks exactly like ens guidance. It might be happening 

[Chris78]

Here's a good visual of how the GEFS snows on us with the follow up wave.

You can see the lead wave exiting Maine with the follow up in a good spot for us.

[midatlanticweather]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Vast majority of hits on the gefs are from the trailing low. It's warming up to the idea pretty quick here. First thing that came to mind when the euro showed the trailing piece. Now the 18z gfs twins did it, and then there's this gefs panel... look at all those trailers... 

Lead wave is almost a lock to bring rain but the setup has become much more intriguing. Haven't seen a legit flash freeze in a long time. Glaciers are a lot of fun. My favorite memory of Feb 2007 was the glacier that stayed for what? Couple weeks?

 

This is really cool! Euro/FV-3 were showing this a few days back as well (although not sure the evolution was the same) - maybe it lost the idea and now it is back to stay! I am sure this will all be figured out Monday morning!

 

[Yeoman]

Don't forget, models are terrible at sniffing out strength of CAD

[Ji]

Now THIS is a blue ball! Looks exactly like ens guidance. It might be happening 

Congrats equator?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Now THIS is a blue ball! Looks exactly like ens guidance. It might be happening 

Congrats equator?

We might need that war there. 

[pasnownut]

57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Vast majority of hits on the gefs are from the trailing low. It's warming up to the idea pretty quick here. First thing that came to mind when the euro showed the trailing piece. Now the 18z gfs twins did it, and then there's this gefs panel... look at all those trailers... 

Lead wave is almost a lock to bring rain but the setup has become much more intriguing. Haven't seen a legit flash freeze in a long time. Glaciers are a lot of fun. My favorite memory of Feb 2007 was the glacier that stayed for what? Couple weeks?

 

So Bob (or any that have a potential answer), what would you attribute the follow up wave to?  You guys just got whacked from one that popped as a coastal and only showed up at about the same lead time as this one is?  You think it just dumb luck?  Nothing that I know of suggests this type of pattern produces multiple vorts, or energy being left behind, but here we are again thinking this might happen?  Just wondering what in the pattern might be causing this, as I just dont see it (but I'll surely take it).

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

How positive can the NAO get? (I find this so interesting during the time-after Stratosphere warming)

Check this out. (NAO monthly). No Dec, Jan, or Feb months since 2013 of less than 0 NAO. 

2014   0.29   1.34   0.80   0.31  -0.92  -0.97   0.18  -1.68   1.62  -1.27   0.68   1.86
2015   1.79   1.32   1.45   0.73   0.15  -0.07  -3.18  -0.76  -0.65   0.44   1.74   2.24
2016   0.12   1.58   0.73   0.38  -0.77  -0.43  -1.76  -1.65   0.61   0.41  -0.16   0.48
2017   0.48   1.00   0.74   1.73  -1.91   0.05   1.26  -1.10  -0.61   0.19  -0.00   0.88
2018   1.44   1.58  -0.93   1.24   2.12   1.09   1.39   1.97   1.67   0.93  -0.11   0.61

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Now THIS is a blue ball! Looks exactly like ens guidance. It might be happening 

Oy Gevalt!! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

So Bob (or any that have a potential answer), what would you attribute the follow up wave to?  You guys just got whacked from one that popped as a coastal and only showed up at about the same lead time as this one is?  You think it just dumb luck?  Nothing that I know of suggests this type of pattern produces multiple vorts, or energy being left behind, but here we are again thinking this might happen?  Just wondering what in the pattern might be causing this, as I just dont see it (but I'll surely take it).

Well...I'll let others give perhaps a better explanation, but here's my two copper coins worth (all it's worth perhaps!).  I thought I saw in other model runs that showed this follow-up wave scenario, that there was in fact some energy left behind.  So perhaps that is part of it.  I also wonder if that, in conjunction with extreme baroclinicity along that front, is partly the cause as well (extreme temperature drop in < 6 hours).  This of course all assumes those solutions are right, and taking them verbatim.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well...I'll let others give perhaps a better explanation, but here's my two copper coins worth (all it's worth perhaps!).  I thought I saw in other model runs that showed this follow-up wave scenario, that there was in fact some energy left behind.  So perhaps that is part of it.  I also wonder if that, in conjunction with extreme baroclinicity along that front, is partly the cause as well (extreme temperature drop in < 6 hours).  This of course all assumes those solutions are right, and taking them verbatim.

fv3 looks consistent of having one consolidated system for several runs.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well...I'll let others give perhaps a better explanation, but here's my two copper coins worth (all it's worth perhaps!).  I thought I saw in other model runs that showed this follow-up wave scenario, that there was in fact some energy left behind.  So perhaps that is part of it.  I also wonder if that, in conjunction with extreme baroclinicity along that front, is partly the cause as well (extreme temperature drop in < 6 hours).  This of course all assumes those solutions are right, and taking them verbatim.

The bottom of the trough really digs deep and spins up another low. The positive tilt keeps everything elongated and strung out in the upperlevels so as the lead wave runs out in front there's enough energy trailing behind to keep things going. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

For those of us without subscriptions, here is a free site for comparing ensemble trends. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&amp;MENU=0000000000&amp;CONT=namk&amp;MODELL=ecmwfens&amp;MODELLTYP=2&amp;VAR=t85p&amp;HH=120&amp;BASE=201901141200&amp;WMO=&amp;ZOOM=0

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

18z EPS at 144 has some signs of a trailing wave, 6 hr snow mean ending at 18z Sunday of 2-4 around DC. 

[Bob Chill]

Damn, sub 500 heights across the lakes and check the temps up there... coldest fantasy cold i've ever seen on any model. The air might smell like ozone as the stratosphere pays a visit. Lol

[SnowGolfBro]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn, sub 500 heights across the lakes and check the temps up there... coldest fantasy cold i've ever seen on any model. The air might smell like ozone as the stratosphere pays a visit. Lol

I believe the term is Vodka Cold lol. Damn 

[snowfan]

That's not too cold 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn, sub 500 heights across the lakes and check the temps up there... coldest fantasy cold i've ever seen on any model. The air might smell like ozone as the stratosphere pays a visit. Lol

Tru dat ..... We are going to regret wanting this pattern change !! Mind numbing cold up there - 52 wow . Thats even colder than the last porn job by the FV3 a few days ago. 

    

[LeesburgWx]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn, sub 500 heights across the lakes and check the temps up there... coldest fantasy cold i've ever seen on any model. The air might smell like ozone as the stratosphere pays a visit. Lol

Meh, only single digits for us. Heatwave

[midatlanticweather]

Wonder if the GL are ice covered? I guess they would have to be.. NOAA is not sharing since it is shut down! If they are open at all, they will close completely soon! Wow

 

[Roger Smith]

It looks cold but in Feb 1934 there were readings of -50 F in upstate New York and eastern Ontario, and Lake Ontario froze over completely.

Also in Jan 1976 I was living close to where you see that -14 reading east of Georgian Bay and it was -42 F overnight. The readings north of Lake Superior are probably close to all-time records on that map though. 

There is very little ice on the Great Lakes so far this mild winter (until last few days), Canadian govt not shut down so I could refer you to the ice cover maps on the EC site. But only small amounts of ice showing near shore on the GL. 

 

[RDM]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The bottom of the trough really digs deep and spins up another low. The positive tilt keeps everything elongated and strung out in the upperlevels so as the lead wave runs out in front there's enough energy trailing behind to keep things going. 

A potentially feigned attempt to draw another analogy to this setup....   Comparing this to the world of fluid dynamics in rivers, where eddy currents form on the edge of whirlpools that's are then sucked downstream by the main flow of the river. In this case, the ULL at the bottom of the trough generates the lead wave as a byproduct of the ULL's rotation.  The lead wave is driven up the trough by the UL jet, while the main ULL digs in before moving on itself.  Does that make sense?  

[Amped]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn, sub 500 heights across the lakes and check the temps up there... coldest fantasy cold i've ever seen on any model. The air might smell like ozone as the stratosphere pays a visit. Lol

This is why the FV3 is still experimental.

[PivotPoint]

I woke up one morning in Stowe Vermont either 3 or 4 years ago (can’t remember) and my 4Runner read -38 degrees. Coldest by far I’ve experienced and my runner sure didnt want to turn over. Took a few tries to get her warmed up to the idea 

[WVclimo]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

This is why the FV3 is still experimental.

Both the 18Z GFS and FV3 prog the coldest readings in my yard in 25 years, since Jan 1994, at the end of the month.

[Hank Scorpio]

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The bottom of the trough really digs deep and spins up another low. The positive tilt keeps everything elongated and strung out in the upperlevels so as the lead wave runs out in front there's enough energy trailing behind to keep things going. 

If this happens, we have to name it the Trailer Trash storm.

[poolz1]

I woke up one morning in Stowe Vermont either 3 or 4 years ago (can’t remember) and my 4Runner read -38 degrees. Coldest by far I’ve experienced and my runner sure didnt want to turn over. Took a few tries to get her warmed up to the idea 

Funny....the coldest air I have ever experienced was in VT. 12 hours before the blizzard of 96 I was leaving Killington trying to beat the snow home. Bank clock in Rutland read -29. Once I hit Reading PA is was a serious white knuckler all the way to FDK.

[StantonParkHoya]

Folks do recall that there were -10 readings all the way into NC just last year right?