frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @frd sorry had to take son to the dr and so my post is delayed. I’ll get on it this evening. Hopefully after we get done salivating over another epic weeklies. But the short short version is I think we likely see “some” snow over the next 2 weeks but our chances of a warning level event are maybe 40% imo. After that I love everything I see for a truly epic pattern going into February and with most of us already ahead of climo pace our chances of a very good winter (top 1/3) are extremely good. Ill give reasons and analysis when I don’t have a 4 year old pulling me around. No prob, @psuhoffman , thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: Not an insignificant event, GFS drops 4-6 in DC according to stormvista maps. I know typically these don’t work out for us but hey, it may be our only option with this storm. Looks like FV3 is 6-8 if I am reading TT right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 53 degrees at 7 AM with rain and then 15 degrees at 1 PM with heavy ice/snow. Sounds unlikely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Regardless of moisture the temp drop should be pretty spectacular if modeled properly. Those can squeeze out some moisture in the atmosphere all by themselves can't they. Fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: 53 degrees at 7 AM with rain and then 15 degrees at 1 PM with heavy ice/snow. Sounds unlikely lol This is the year of unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Waiting for the 18z meteograms, but 12z GEFS had 12 of the 20 members plus the Control giving DCA 7 inches of snow or more by Jan 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: There actually pretty good agreement between the gfs/fv3 and the Euro for a rain to snow scenario for the weekend. I know they normally don't work out well for us but should be an interesting week of tracking. Yes. This area has had this scenario before—where it’s quote on quite “mostly a rain event except a brief changeover” and we have overpetforned—the fact that the cold air slaps down fast—5-6 hours of heavy snow can pile up quickly with crashing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: There actually pretty good agreement between the gfs/fv3 and the Euro for a rain to snow scenario for the weekend. I know they normally don't work out well for us but should be an interesting week of tracking. March 5 2015? Wasn't this a rain to snow storm with a temperature crash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Decent... 10 of the 20 plus the Control show 6"+ for DCA through 168... 4 others are 3 to 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Decent... 10 of the 20 plus the Control show 6"+ for DCA through 168... 4 others are 3 to 6 inches I’m assuming all with the trailing wave, not the initial low, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Vast majority of hits on the gefs are from the trailing low. It's warming up to the idea pretty quick here. First thing that came to mind when the euro showed the trailing piece. Now the 18z gfs twins did it, and then there's this gefs panel... look at all those trailers... Lead wave is almost a lock to bring rain but the setup has become much more intriguing. Haven't seen a legit flash freeze in a long time. Glaciers are a lot of fun. My favorite memory of Feb 2007 was the glacier that stayed for what? Couple weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Code yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Code yellow Everyone is Day 6 and 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lead wave is almost a lock to bring rain but the setup has become much more intriguing. Haven't seen a legit flash freeze in a long time. Glaciers are a lot of fun. My favorite memory of Feb 2007 was the glacier that stayed for what? Couple weeks? March 2015 was a pretty fond memory for me. Not a glacier exactly but we went from 40s and rain to moderate/heavy snow coating everything almost instantly after changeover to single digits the night after. Fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 All I can say is wow looking at this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 @poolz1 This is very fascinating the relationships here and the connections.... > SSW > SPV split > forcing > high amplification over North America = cold and stormy ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I feel bad for PSU getting fringed so i'll try to cheer him up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: January 24-25 looks good on 18z GFS My goodness...Wonder if the "precipitation every weekend" trend is gonna continue? I've always wondered if it would keep going through winter...resulting in snowy weekends instead of rainy ones (but I haven't allowed myself to fantasize that far, lol). Would be something...but it certainly seems like that STJ is still gonna be a beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 42 minutes ago, Steve25 said: 53 degrees at 7 AM with rain and then 15 degrees at 1 PM with heavy ice/snow. Sounds unlikely lol It does happen. But normally we need a secondary low to form on the boundary and ride north. This is looking more like a frontal passage than anything else. Although a very strong one so who knows. Edit. And just like that the GEFS are showing a follow up wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I feel bad for PSU getting fringed so i'll try to cheer him up Is that a 15” mean in the next two weeks?! Edit: Looks like DCA’s is only 12”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 [mention=9853]poolz1[/mention] This is very fascinating the relationships here and the connections.... > SSW > SPV split > forcing > high amplification over North America = cold and stormy ... It really looks like the damage is done and we will end up on the cold/snowy side of this SSW event. Just an impressive evolution to watch unfold over the past few weeks. Just took a look at the weeklies individual days. 1 day out of the next 46 has heights neutral/normal....and that was at the end of feb. most day are highly impressive. We asked for this...lol No turning back now! I love it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: March 2015 was a pretty fond memory for me. Not a glacier exactly but we went from 40s and rain to moderate/heavy snow coating everything almost instantly after changeover to single digits the night after. Fun event. Yea, that was a good event for so late in the year but it didn't have much staying power. Sun angle is real that late. If we get a legit glacier going right before the flip to stable cold then we could realistically have snow on the ground for a month. 02-03 was one of the best snowpack winters i've seen and even that came kinda late (pd2 through mid/late march). After PD2 we had multiple decent events into March to keep refreshing the pack. Jan 87 was pretty amazing iirc too. Too long ago for clear memories but we even had snowpack on our street for weeks. 09-10 was sick from a big storm perspective but i've never seen 50" of snow melt so fast in Feb. Lol. Dec 09 went right down the storm drain a week later. Hypothetically, we could start a long lasting snowpack next weekend. You know what's better than snow on snow? Snow on snow on snow with a glacier base... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I feel bad for PSU getting fringed so i'll try to cheer him up Thanks!!! As long as I beat climo I can live with being fringed a few times. I don’t need to be the epicenter. But a miss would be easier to stomach after a hit or two...but I have faith it’s coming so I’m good. But I guess I need to stop tempting the snow gods by joking about “fringed” every time. I think they just reminded me whose boss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: Uh, I'm sorry... but alrighty then FV3... check this out: A 40 degree temp drop in 6 hours during the day would actually kind of impressive to watch unfold. Take the kids to the playground in the morning and then watch the front roll through. I’d think that would set off some kind of shower or storm activity lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Is that a 15” mean in the next two weeks?! Edit: Looks like DCA’s is only 12”. Meh 12z was 17” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Meh 12z was 17” [Ji] we lost five inches [/Ji] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro weekly snow mean is lol again. About a foot in DC. 15” up here. It went down ~1” but we lost 3-5” across the area from the last storm so actually it went up a net of 2-3” for the rest of the period. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I feel bad for PSU getting fringed so i'll try to cheer him up That graphic really shows the ensemble wanting to blow up the trailing wave on Sunday afternoon. I’d call that a signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: [Ji] we lost five inches [/Ji] He would have nothing left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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