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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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14 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:

 


This brings back bad memories. My normal 40 min commute home took over 5 hours. 83 north shutdown above Hunt Valley. Lucky for me I had prepared with a full tank of gas, drinks snacks and when i was finished drinking a port-a-potty emoji51.png

 

That storm was quite memorable. Took me 6 hours to go from Frederick to Hagerstown on route 70. Cars abandoned everywhere along the highway. 

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Just now, Snowstorm5921 said:

You just got 10” of snow.  I haven’t seen snow in 2 months.  Why so upset?

I'm not upset at all. I'm thrilled with getting just under a foot of snow. That's not the problem though. You're posts are an embarrassment to all of the nice folks that post in the forum that YOU should be posting in. 

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Just now, BlueDXer75 said:

Why are you so upset? All your posts are negative and take away from great analysis in here. There have been times where we got slammed and DC nothing, let’s be happy for them

I just don’t understand why posting non-snow analysis is frowned upon.  I don’t post with snow goggles on

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That one might be even more likely to truly cut.  The pna gets temporarily beat down on all guidance and the trough is amplifying unto the central US with the war not yet into NAO territory. That’s a strong cutter signal.  The next 2 weeks has potential for some frozen but if your expecting a blitz and snowpack building you are likely going to be frustrated.  Once the NAO goes negative then frozen will be favored over rain every threat and given the stj keeps throwing waves at us every few days that should end well. 

well this is crap man because the great looking weeklies from 2 weeks ago had 3 week and week 4 as epic. The last week of January should of been epic. Not cutters. So now your telling me we have to wait till feb for snow lol

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Whatever happens this weekend their sure our a lot of possibilities. Rain ZR Snow flash freeze wind. Going to be interesting to watch this unfold and i hate to sound like a weenie but until the the disturbance rolls through Thursday night I’m not sure we can be confident in any track for the weekend storm

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

well this is crap man because the great looking weeklies from 2 weeks ago had 3 week and week 4 as epic. The last week of January should of been epic. Not cutters. So now your telling me we have to wait till feb for snow lol

The weeklies since late Dec have not looked good for the week of the 24th. That's been the transition week and it hasn't moved for multiple runs. At least have the facts straight if you're going to melt over the weeklies 

ETA: I meant to say epic. The weeklies had the 3rd week of Jan as a non-shutout pattern but not epic. Everything is happening pretty much to the day as advertised since the beginning of Jan. We got out of the shutout pattern FASTER that expected and got up to a foot of snow. lol. You need to take an extra med. 

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7 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

I just don’t understand why posting non-snow analysis is frowned upon.  I don’t post with snow goggles on

When it is all you do...with zero analysis...in drive by fashion...in a forum that technically isn't your home forum...it comes off as trolling...but you know that don't you? Now if you're just a whiny cry baby because you haven't gotten snow yet don't...we already have our own resident here for that.

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9 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

I just don’t understand why posting non-snow analysis is frowned upon.  I don’t post with snow goggles on

i think most here are trying to tell you that you are posting in the wrong subforum. you aren't taking the hint. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The weeklies since late Dec have not looked good for the week of the 24th. That's been the transition week and it hasn't moved for multiple runs. At least have the facts straight if you're going to melt over the weeklies 

lol okay..i thought this week was the transition week. Jan 15-22. PSU magic Jan 15 date. Ill stay patient

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The weeklies since late Dec have not looked good for the week of the 24th. That's been the transition week and it hasn't moved for multiple runs. At least have the facts straight if you're going to melt over the weeklies 

He's melting just like his snow that was a pleasant surprise that the weeklies didn't say were going to happen.

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30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The WAR has been a feature since Sept. I noted it in my winter outlook and didnt like seeing it continually show up right when the nao was supposed to dip. What makes it different now that several people are expecting the WAR seasonal tendency to change on a dime? 

I don’t agree with your assessment the WAR has been a consistent problem. It’s popped up at times but 90% of the time from November 10 until now the predominant storm track has been under us.  A few storms cut but most the problem was lack of cold due to a crap pac not Atlantic. One storm was suppressed. So I don’t see how a west track from a WAR has been a seasonal trend. 

Second the long range guidance has been doing fairly good with the mean long wave pattern. There were a couple head fakes but mostly they have been ok. So when everything...EVERYTHING (geps,GEFS,eps, Cfs and euro weeklies, uk seasonal, JMA weeklies) everything says the NAO will go negative and those models are supported by the sst analogs, I think I should flip the question and ask you what objective evidence you have to doubt what every piece of evidence is indicating?

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol okay..i thought this week was the transition week. Jan 15-22. PSU magic Jan 15 date. Ill stay patient

We were happy because the shutout pattern ended faster than we thought. Nobody that I know of was expecting a blocked up epic pattern until the last week of the month at the earliest. 

The thing is, we're probably going to get more snow or frozen precip in the next 2 weeks. Might be hard to get a classic all snow event but we're very much in the middle of a workable pattern that can produce. And it probably will. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

We were happy because the shutout pattern ended faster than we thought. Nobody that I know of was expecting a blocked up epic pattern until the last week of the month at the earliest. 

The thing is, we're probably going to get more snow or frozei jn precip in the next 2 weeks. Might be hard to get a classic all snow event but we're very much in the middle of a workable pattern that can produce. And it probably will. 

it seems like when the weeklies come out---week 3 is always epic......but now, we are still 3 weeks away from the epic...you know what i am saying...

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t agree with your assessment the WAR has been a consistent problem. It’s popped up at times but 90% of the time from November 10 until now the predominant storm track has been under us.  A few storms cut but most the problem was lack of cold due to a crap pac not Atlantic. One storm was suppressed. So I don’t see how a west track from a WAR has been a seasonal trend. 

Second the long range guidance has been doing fairly good with the mean long wave pattern. There were a couple head fakes but mostly they have been ok. So when everything...EVERYTHING (geps,GEFS,eps, Cfs and euro weeklies, uk seasonal, JMA weeklies) everything says the NAO will go negative and those models are supported by the sst analogs, I think I should flip the question and ask you what objective evidence you have to doubt what every piece of evidence is indicating?

He called for lots of WAR in his winter outlook.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

We were happy because the shutout pattern ended faster than we though. Nobody that I know of was expecting a blocked up epic pattern until the last week of the month at the earliest. 

The thing is, we're probably going to get more snow or frozen precip in the next 2 weeks. Might be hard to get a classic all snow event but we're very much in the middle of a workable pattern that can produce. And it probably will. 

I can't remember if it was you or PSU but whoever it was nailed the call that once we get the PAC to turn, we'd at least be in the game (aka shutout pattern is over).  Once the blocking settles in, the KU potential increases tenfold.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We were happy because the shutout pattern ended faster than we though. Nobody that I know of was expecting a blocked up epic pattern until the last week of the month at the earliest. 

The thing is, we're probably going to get more snow or frozen precip in the next 2 weeks. Might be hard to get a classic all snow event but we're very much in the middle of a workable pattern that can produce. And it probably will. 

I can only imagine how your response would have been if you hadn't just received 11"....it's easier to babysit with a white landscape

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

it seems like when the weeklies come out---week 3 is always epic......but now, we are still 3 weeks away from the epic...you know what i am saying...

I really don't. I think we've been looking at different weeklies runs. Especially the last 2. 

On another note... 12z eps is building the -NAO faster than 0z last night. Hopefully it slows down so your thesis is right.

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