Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1084869052932259841 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Seems that the weeklies/seasonal forecasts for end of January into February will be right based on what we're seeing show up now on the LR ensembles. WOOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Seems that the weeklies/seasonal forecasts for end of January into February will be right based on what we're seeing show up now on the LR ensembles. WOOF. It’s crazy. 10 days ago i was punting until the last week of January. Now we are on the board in a big way. More to track in the medium range and the long range looks dare i say Epic. An amazing turnaround Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Seems that the weeklies/seasonal forecasts for end of January into February will be right based on what we're seeing show up now on the LR ensembles. WOOF. GEFS d15 (and EPS) are money. Ensembles have done well through d10 lately but have struggled d10-15. If the timing of the WAR moving over and parking in the NAO domain is right then there will be a lot of HECS solutions for Ji to look at in private. Hopefully in 5 days the EPS and GEFS look the same d10 as they do now at d15. I'm sorta expecting a delay at this point but that's a total guess based on nothing more than long range ens rushing things. OTOH- ens were too slow to pick up on the flip and storm this past weekend so maybe they are too slow. As long as the transition completes in January we're looking rock solid for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 53 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: You arent gonna get a whole lot better medium range run than what the GFS is advertising. Chance after chance. Fun few weeks coming up. If you like cold rain, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 54 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I used a chisel and hammer to remove ice from around the tires and a rubber mallet to bash the super thick ice off my hood and trunk so I could get the heck out . It was simply incredibly hard and ice didn't melt for 6 weeks. I saw chunks of ice sitting the gutters on Capitol Hill still not fully melted *in late April.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS d15 (and EPS) are money. Ensembles have done well through d10 lately but have struggled d10-15. If the timing of the WAR moving over and parking in the NAO domain is right then there will be a lot of HECS solutions for Ji to look at in private. Hopefully in 5 days the EPS and GEFS look the same d10 as they do now at d15. I'm sorta expecting a delay at this point but that's a total guess based on nothing more than long range ens rushing things. OTOH- ens were too slow to pick up on the flip and storm this past weekend so maybe they are too slow. As long as the transition completes in January we're looking rock solid for Feb. So even if we miss out on next weekend's mega storm, we have more snow to look forward to at the end of January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If you like cold rain, sure. Yeah. If you are gonna take the run verbatim. I mean, I dont know about you, but i will take LP's running under us in January any time. And that is all I am seeing with the run. Ptype issues at long range are a joke. But you know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: So even if we miss out on next weekend's mega storm, we have more snow to look forward to at the end of January? We're in a transition phase with plenty of cold lurking around to our north so it's safe to say that any shortwave over the next 10 days could produce. Fast progressive flow and a WAR makes it dicey but not impossible. Mid range range rain can be short range snow and vice versa. The short story is it will be busy in here for the next 10 days even though the really good blocked/suppressed pattern hasn't started. If the the neg nao does verify and doesn't get pushed back in time (or never happen) then yes, late Jan has a lot of potential but still subject to chaos and luck. We'll just need less good luck than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: Is that using Kucaracha? Who cares.....its showing much more frozen, and not all rain. You should know by now not to focus on any snowmap for anything more then when and where....not how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agree. I saw some h5 plots for an early Jan storm in 94 and it was remarkably close to what is being shown this weekend. I don't think 94 is a good analog as a seasonal just for this weekend's specific threat. We're probably going to have to wait until the thurs/fri shortwave is nailed down before we can have confidence in the weekend. I'm only favoring more wet than white or ice because of the ridging. It's a good general rule of thumb...with a lot of exceptions. The next 2 weeks reminds me of 94 for sure. But you adjust the boundary 50 miles south and 94 would have been great and that is an insignificant change in an overall sense. I agree the pattern favors to our NW but I could see how it works out. But after that is when things really look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agree. I saw some h5 plots for an early Jan storm in 94 and it was remarkably close to what is being shown this weekend. I don't think 94 is a good analog as a seasonal just for this weekend's specific threat. We're probably going to have to wait until the thurs/fri shortwave is nailed down before we can have confidence in the weekend. I'm only favoring more wet than white or ice because of the ridging. It's a good general rule of thumb...with a lot of exceptions. LOL. Many rules seem to have that disclaimer in this sport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Who cares.....its showing much more frozen, and not all rain. You should know by now not to focus on any snowmap for anything more then when and where....not how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: not really but whatever makes you giggle..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Where's amped to comment on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Yeoman said: Where's amped to comment on the Euro? [amped] Euro is amped [amped] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro has less phasing between the northern and southern streams at 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 PSU might like the euro but I won't. Some front end snow (good dose northern tier) and then cold rain. No ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I'm using crappy graphics, but I'm pretty sure the Euro is a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 15 hours ago, frd said: I love exciting winter weather, but last winter we lost 1/3 of the tops of both of our rather tall scott pines and one more significant ice event would be the end. Wish when we first moved here many years ago I considered outcomes like this. I planted too many trees because our home is on an old farm field and I longed for trees and shade, years later, my view on things has changed. Anyways, I hope snow or rain, even sleet, but please no ice storm. I lost two of my tall arborvitae trees at the end of the driveway to last March's incredible wind storm but nothing to snow or ice. I know what you mean about over planting of trees. I kind of did that when I first moved out here 26 years ago. I have spent 10X the money having trees removed that were encroaching on the house in an unsafe way than I did planting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 It actually gives us decent snow on the backend this run....interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Hmmm. Well it's certainly different to the Canadian. Would like to see that LP stay south of the VA-NC border until it hits the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS d15 (and EPS) are money. Ensembles have done well through d10 lately but have struggled d10-15. If the timing of the WAR moving over and parking in the NAO domain is right then there will be a lot of HECS solutions for Ji to look at in private. Hopefully in 5 days the EPS and GEFS look the same d10 as they do now at d15. I'm sorta expecting a delay at this point but that's a total guess based on nothing more than long range ens rushing things. OTOH- ens were too slow to pick up on the flip and storm this past weekend so maybe they are too slow. As long as the transition completes in January we're looking rock solid for Feb. This is based on nothing more than gut/weenie feeling but this year's pattern change seems different than how things normally go (LR rushes things, we step down for weeks) and I think the D15 looks continue to move forward in time. Weeklies have been so consistent with that look taking hold late Jan so there's that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm using crappy graphics, but I'm pretty sure the Euro is a rainer Yea, not good but throws a wrinkle with stringing out the system. Trailing piece works a little. Makes you contemplate the front running stuff moving faster and dragging the boundary for the trailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro has us dropping from 55 to 25 in 6 hours Sunday afternoon...talk about a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Where's amped to comment on the Euro? Meh, I'm hugging that gem 240 from last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Flash freeze verbatim. lol. Lows in the single digits as the storm departs. Might not be a pretty snowstorm or big icestorm but still disruptive on the euro. ETA: lows below zero... lol. I'll take the over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 How much snow on the backend for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, not good but throws a wrinkle with stringing out the system. Trailing piece works a little. Makes you contemplate the front running stuff moving faster and dragging the boundary for the trailer. What happens with the trailing piece, if much of anything? There were various ops and individual ensemble solutions recently that showed a similar kind of idea, kind of interesting. That cold air moves in like a boss. (ETA: 'd by WxUSAF!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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