JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Verbatim, that run is ugly, but agreed. Doubt we'll see anything like '94 for a very long time. It's been a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon trended better @ h5 but it's a skating rink solution so I'm not sure everyone will call that "better". ETA: from a mby perspective. PSU is nude right now. I remember in 94 when I lived in Herndon VA we drive up to Harrisburg one weekend. My dad has a meeting there and took us along. It was March I think. And I was shocked once we got north of Frederick how there was still a glacier on the ground. Like a foot of hard packed snow. And huge piles everywhere. It was obvious they had a much different winter. But no two years are exactly alike. It’s true a -epo war pattern favors north. Storms tend to run the boundary and the boundary moves around but the further north the better chance that more of the storms stay south of you. 2014 might have been the south end of what can happen in that pattern. But 1994 isn’t necessarily the most likely outcome either. 2015 is kind of an in between scenario. No way to know how it plays out until it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Fv3 is in between the GFS/CMC. The longwave pattern supports a mostly wet west track so ops are fitting that mold for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: With the way temperatures seem to plummet afterward, would a flash freeze be something to look out for this weekend even if the precipitation doesn't fall as anything frozen? Absolutely, and the temperature will not have to drop much to get issues going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Quasievil said: GFS really backed off its snow idea around here in 12Z. That track is atrocious. LOW in western VA means RAIN for all. Not all. As depicted it is a brutal ice storm for the Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I had a lot of hope for this weekend storm. But I think Robert Chill is right...this one screams more wet than white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, frd said: My cold medication got the best of me this morning, I did post the NAO in error. However, I appreciate all the great feedback on the topic of the AO and the NAO. I believe there was a recent post by my Mike Ventrice where he talks about the -NAO taking longer to evolve in this type of SSWE. He presented some good info on the topic showing comparisons on this year's SSWE to last years in Feb. anfd the subsequent NAO that developed . Agree with that analogy to last Feb. Difference is this year the base state is much less hostile as we transition the next 2 weeks so we could catch a break. Last year the pattern did start to flux in mid Feb and we caught that low end event from the frontal wave but in general we were stuck in a Nina torch so we had to wait for the NAO to tank to have a shot. This year we have already scored during the flawed but ok transition pattern and could again. I decided to wait until after the early 12z guidance comes in to make my full pattern post during the dead time later. Don’t want to distract from the guidance analysis. But I’m 50/50 on our chances to score a big hit (we likely see some snow given the plethora of chances) during the next 2 weeks and very optimistic after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I had a lot of hope for this weekend storm. But I think Robert Chill is right...this one screams more wet than white. It's hard to deny the ridge in the midrange. There are ways for it to work but if we are being intellectually honest about everything... this is the most favored track by far. If we score we got lucky again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3 is more like the CMC. Pretty much all rain for entire coast to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS during the height of the storm is like 33-37 across our area. Not far away from being cold enough. Close enough to keep me interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, DCTeacherman said: GFS during the height of the storm is like 33-37 across our area. Not far away from being cold enough. Close enough to keep me interested. No one should be punting this before midweek at the earliest. Trend this year has still been to move the storm track to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: No one should be punting this before midweek at the earliest. Trend this year has still been to move the storm track to our south. And after that beautiful powder event I'm totally game for a snow --> ice --> rain --> snow --> arctic cold type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I decided to wait until after the early 12z guidance comes in to make my full pattern post during the dead time later. Don’t want to distract from the guidance analysis. I am going to save my Jelly donut for your post psu. Have a little coffee with it. Awaiting with eager anticipation. Hey, I hope this does not put undue stress on you to make an epic update, ha ha J/K . Looking forward to it. I will post some voodoo strat stuff if there is anything worthwhile to bring up later. On a side note my son was happy with his 2 hour delay this AM. , meant he had more time to game last night and watch bit coin price swings. Teenagers these days ...... ( my daughters were more sensible ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 You arent gonna get a whole lot better medium range run than what the GFS is advertising. Chance after chance. Fun few weeks coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: I used a chisel and hammer to remove ice from around the tires and a rubber mallet to bash the super thick ice off my hood and trunk so I could get the heck out . It was simply incredibly hard and ice didn't melt for 6 weeks. We were skiing down the hill in in our yard with boots on. You literally could not break through the sleet glacier with your feet. It was the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen. I remember my poor dog. he was crawling around on his belly on it. He didnt know what the hell was going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I basically never trust the navgem...ever... but it's usually the most progressive model so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie much less amped then 0z Yes, but 999mb in SW VA at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes, but 999mb in SW VA at 144 There ya go. That's my yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Hey guys, I just won 2 billion dollars! Yoda: Yeah, but they are all ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12z GEFS snowfall mean pretty tight at 144... extreme S MD is at 2 inches, NW VA at 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, yoda said: GEFS snowfall mean pretty tight at 168... extreme S MD is at 2 inches, NW VA at 8 inches is this counting sleet/freezing rain as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Woodbridge02 said: is this counting sleet/freezing rain as snow? GEFS members don't have good resolution. It goes beyond sleet/zr as snow. A west track that would not be snow in real life will magically show a big hit sometimes. When dealing with a borderline/marginal temp event, be careful looking at the GEFS ind member output. It's skewed towards colder and snowier every.single.time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 @Bob Chill I wish I could see the h5 composites to compete the tpv locations and war but I do remember the AO and NAO were pretty positive in 94. So with a neutral NAO and negative AO perhaps that argues for a slightly better outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I basically never trust the navgem...ever... but it's usually the most progressive model so.. Yep, it has been trending further and further West. Was way out East over the Ocean last night and now I see even further West, inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GEFS is a shotgun of solutions. A few pure rainers. Mostly mixed events. Some front end like the op. Others cut then develop a trailing wave that flips to snow. And a few pure snow solutions. A lot of ice in there. But if were being optimistic it was an improvement over 6z even considering a lot of that “snow” is actually ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill I wish I could see the h5 composites to compete the tpv locations and war but I do remember the AO and NAO were pretty positive in 94. So with a neutral NAO and negative AO perhaps that argues for a slightly better outcome. Agree. I saw some h5 plots for an early Jan storm in 94 and it was remarkably close to what is being shown this weekend. I don't think 94 is a good analog as a seasonal just for this weekend's specific threat. We're probably going to have to wait until the thurs/fri shortwave is nailed down before we can have confidence in the weekend. I'm only favoring more wet than white or ice because of the ridging. It's a good general rule of thumb...with a lot of exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEFS is a shotgun of solutions. A few pure rainers. Mostly mixed events. Some front end like the op. Others cut then develop a trailing wave that flips to snow. And a few pure snow solutions. A lot of ice in there. But if were being optimistic it was an improvement over 6z even considering a lot of that “snow” is actually ice. All over the place of course! Given what's been discussed lately and from what we've seen in the latest model runs, I'd tend to think the pure snow solutions are low probability. I do find the idea of a trailing wave flipping to snow kind of interesting. Not saying it's high probability either or anything like that, but a couple of ops runs in the past few days showed that scenario with the cold air pushing in very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1084869052932259841 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 94' I got frz rain at 17-20 degrees and a separate epic sleet storm at 20- 22 degrees The worst. I’m so glad I was in central PA that year. Absolutely epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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