Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 icon brings down the 2 inch qpf hammer..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ICON must really hate electricity because a lot would be lost with that look. Yikes. That run was so nasty @Eskimo Joe would approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Blending all the models including the new CMC northern MD looks good for a few inches for the Thursday and Friday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: icon brings down the 2 inch qpf hammer..... 2 inches of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 94' I got frz rain at 17-20 degrees and a separate epic sleet storm at 20- 22 degrees Nothing will ever top that one. All ice storms since then have been a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: ICON must really hate electricity because a lot would be lost with that look. Yikes. That run was so nasty @Eskimo Joe would approve If its showing an ice storm then its bullshit. Ice storms are almost always over modeled and underperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: If its showing an ice storm then its bullshit. Ice storms are almost always over modeled and underperform. But but but... what about my moderate rain at 31.5 degrees during the day in March?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That chart is the NAO. The TPV is initially centered too close to the NAO domain to allow it to go very negative. The AO looks better with higher heights favored over the arctic circle in general. All the long range guidance begins to weaken the tpv and retrograde the atl ridge into the classic NAO space towards late January. I’m about to make a post on how I see this going in general but I’m not worried. My cold medication got the best of me this morning, I did post the NAO in error. However, I appreciate all the great feedback on the topic of the AO and the NAO. I believe there was a recent post by my Mike Ventrice where he talks about the -NAO taking longer to evolve in this type of SSWE. He presented some good info on the topic showing comparisons on this year's SSWE to last years in Feb. anfd the subsequent NAO that developed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Nothing will ever top that one. All ice storms since then have been a joke. the worst are the modeled ice storms in march where its 31.99 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: But but but... what about my moderate rain at 31.5 degrees during the day in March?? Freezing rain above 28 or 29 degrees is lol worthy. Give me another '94 ice storm with vodka cold and some wind the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS is now more north of 6z....not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: My cold medication got the best of me this morning, I did post the NAO in error. However, I appreciate all the great feedback on the topic of the AO and the NAO. . Stick to being the Twitter bot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS is a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 During the 94 storms, I remember being able to skate on the front yard and having to use a chisel and hammer to remove the ice in places. These “light glaze” events we get now are a joke in comparison. So boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not to mention single digits behind the front. If we got a couple inches of snow topped with an inch of ZR followed by the ice box it would be dispruptive to put it as mildly as possible. lol That sounds like a repeat of MLK weekend in 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: GFS is a rainer It's like 4-6" on the front end, deluge, and 1-2" on the back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12z GFS and CMC... next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Yeoman said: GFS is a rainer And CMC looks like an extreme cutter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: It's like 4-6" on the front end, deluge, and 1-2" on the back. Temps really drop as well. Showing mid-20s at 18z on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Stick to being the Twitter bot bots are perfect, does not compute :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Maybe the cutters can setup the storm behind that which subsequently sets up the storm behind which lays the foundation for the system following allowing the baroclinic zone to establish itself for the one behind that. One of them should work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If its showing an ice storm then its bullshit. Ice storms are almost always over modeled and underperform. Verbatim, that run is ugly, but agreed. Doubt we'll see anything like '94 for a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It's like 4-6" on the front end, deluge, and 1-2" on the back. Looked that way for maybe Northern MD, otherwise not much for DC Metro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockabilyJunior Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I know the verification scores are low for the CMC, and that it often doesn't agree with the other models, but it seems to me that if anything, it's a little too snow/cold happy for our area compared to other models. Can anyone confirm or rebut? I don't really ever get my hopes up for a storm until the CMC shows something, even if most of them don't pan out. This is all speculation though based on 5 or so years of following this forum, and I'm curious what others have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS really backed off its snow idea around here in 12Z. That track is atrocious. LOW in western VA means RAIN for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It's like 4-6" on the front end, deluge, and 1-2" on the back. I’m 100% positive this will be our final solution. I’m all in....out....in. Eta: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Looked that way for maybe Northern MD, otherwise not much for DC Metro.. If you say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: That sounds like a repeat of MLK weekend in 1994. That was the most epic ice storm of all time... Was out of school what seemed like forever... Friends of mine didn’t get power back for 3+ weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: If you say so Is that using Kucaracha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 With the way temperatures seem to plummet afterward, would a flash freeze be something to look out for this weekend even if the precipitation doesn't fall as anything frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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