psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, frd said: This to me this is more interesting than the MJO. What happened to the many ensemble members agreeing on a steep decline in the AO ? Today that is gone. This is beyond me, maybe someone can comment why this changed. @psuhoffman I see your are around, any ideas ? That chart is the NAO. The TPV is initially centered too close to the NAO domain to allow it to go very negative. The AO looks better with higher heights favored over the arctic circle in general. All the long range guidance begins to weaken the tpv and retrograde the atl ridge into the classic NAO space towards late January. I’m about to make a post on how I see this going in general but I’m not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 I started a thread for Thursday night's potential event. I figured it'd be easier to discuss in a separate thread so the weekend threat could be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The storm that just finished was projected to be rain just a week ago. It’s prime climo so it’s worth keeping an eye on the weekend because it wouldn’t take a huge shift to give us a snow/frozen event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm sure the change is mjo related but the mjo isn't a 1:1 correlation and we're in the best period of the year for things not to be perfect... That said, the WAR is looking a little stubborn now. Recency bias says the -epo/WAR combo produced big but that's not really how it works over longer timescales. Jan 94 is the best analog i can think of for the next 10 days at least. Not a perfect match but storm tracks sure remind me of that year. Yeah. I mentioned the ridging yesterday in a post that was going to be stubborn with this weekends system. Need a really strong TPV presence to push the baroclinic ribbon far enough south to mitigate the effects of the WAR. WxUSA mentioned the ridge positioning in the west too this morning and the models have that back too far west. Needs to be centered over Spokane or ID and not off the Washington coast. I'm still hopeful because we are in peak climo where we don't need EVERYTHING to break right, but still some caveats to contend with. If this weekends storm doesn't get us, I'm still hopeful for round 2 later that week, but ensembles weren't giving me warm and fuzzies on that one. This is just for my sake again. Long term into February looks great, but I'll be over here in the desert of Texas, so not much good for me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: PNA ridge axis too. It’s been trending west which favors a west track. But note the positively or neutral tilted trof downstream. Seems to imply less of an amplifying system ie full blown cutter so the farther w pna ridge vs pos/neutral trof could be a wash which is not a bad thing. Would rather take my chances with that sort of setup tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I wasn’t following this forum in ‘13-‘14 or ‘14-‘15, but I remember hearing everyone talk about the PV. I believe we didn’t have a -AO or -NAO those winters, but scored big on a lot of moderate snows due to the PV going south. Is the PV wreaking havoc on the AO and NAO? Just wondering since the AO was supposed to be negative for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The storm that just finished was projected to be rain just a week ago. It’s prime climo so it’s worth keeping an eye on the weekend because it wouldn’t take a huge shift to give us a snow/frozen event This storm is nothing like that one. There is no ridge in central Canada that is going to shove the northern stream offshore before it can phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah. I mentioned the ridging yesterday in a post that was going to be stubborn with this weekends system. Need a really strong TPV presence to push the baroclinic ribbon far enough south to mitigate the effects of the WAR. WxUSA mentioned the ridge positioning in the west too this morning and the models have that back too far west. Needs to be centered over Spokane or ID and not off the Washington coast. I'm still hopeful because we are in peak climo where we don't need EVERYTHING to break right, but still some caveats to contend with. If this weekends storm doesn't get us, I'm still hopeful for round 2 later that week, but ensembles weren't giving me warm and fuzzies on that one. This is just for my sake again. Long term into February looks great, but I'll be over here in the desert of Texas, so not much good for me lol You know i'm rooting for you. I might switch to excessively optimistic to make you feel better before reality sets in. LOL. We used up a lot of luck yesterday. If you use the luck index it shows the northern tier is favored next couple weeks. Haha. Models are doing fairly well with general progressions but the last event trended right when it counted. Not feeling to good about this coming weekend right now but i'm far from tossing in the towel. When are you coming? It would be a bit comical if the thursday deal turned into a 2-4" (or bigger). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That chart is the NAO. The TPV is initially centered too close to the NAO domain to allow it to go very negative. The AO looks better with higher heights favored over the arctic circle in general. All the long range guidance begins to weaken the tpv and retrograde the atl ridge into the classic NAO space towards late January. I’m about to make a post on how I see this going in general but I’m not worried. Here is the ao jawn....looks good. And yes, I said jawn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Someone mentioned ‘94 as an analog. I was thinking about that year yesterday when I saw the Jan 28th map with well-below zero temps. That wasn’t a great year in terms of snow here, I believe. I was in Louisville in early ‘94 and TWC was calling for an inch of snow but we woke up to 13”. And the temps stayed below zero most of the week so they couldn’t melt anything. Everything shut down, including the interstate for several days. When I talked to my mom back here, she said everything was shut down due to extreme ice and then bitter cold temps. I’m rooting for snow, as of course we all are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You know i'm rooting for you. I might switch to excessively optimistic to make you feel better before reality sets in. LOL. We used up a lot of luck yesterday. If you use the luck index it shows the northern tier is favored next couple weeks. Haha. Models are doing fairly well with general progressions but the last event trended right when it counted. Not feeling to good about this coming weekend right now but i'm far from tossing in the towel. When are you coming? It would be a bit comical if the thursday deal turned into a 2-4" (or bigger). I fly in and land Noon Friday lol. So, buckle up for the Thursday night deal I'm definitely not throwing the towel. I'm an eternal optimist when it comes to weather. I usually only post when there's a storm on the horizon or good runs leading up to an event or potential event. No need to come on here and deb about something. That's what Ji is for, or snojokama is for in the short range or when stuff is actually happening. Here's to a good run regardless for the Mid Atlantic. Yesterday was a great start for many. North of I-70 will get theirs eventually. I lived it for many years. Stuff typically evens out. Glad you cashed great yesterday! In-laws finished around 12.3. Father in law was so excited to use his snowblower he bought back in March of 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Amped said: This storm is nothing like that one. There is no ridge in central Canada that is going to shove the northern stream offshore before it can phase. Yea i wasn’t comparing the two storms based on the pattern. At 6 day lead times this could trend a little worse or better and its too soon to throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Someone mentioned ‘94 as an analog. I was thinking about that year yesterday when I saw the below zero temps. That wasn’t a great year in terms of snow here, I believe. I was in Louisville in early ‘94 and TWC was calling for an inch of snow but we woke up to 13”. And the temps stayed below zero most of the week so they couldn’t melt anything. Everything shut down, including the interstate for several days. When I talked to my mom back here, she said everything was shut down due to extreme ice and then bitter cold temps. I’m rooting for snow, as of course we all are. The general outcome of a -epo + WAR is wet/ice followed by bitter cold but its progressive so everything is on the move. The WAR screws up our snow chances because hp runs away to the east as precip approaches from the west. There are paths to victory but they are razor thin on the wiggle room. We'll just have to watch each shortwave and see if we can get lucky with a well placed tpv to the north or enough amplification to get a shortwave to track south. Not much we can do other than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Is there a Euro ZR product on weathermodels? Having a hard time finding total accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Icon trended better @ h5 but it's a skating rink solution so I'm not sure everyone will call that "better". ETA: from a mby perspective. PSU is nude right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ICON starts us off as snow before going to a bad ice storm for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: ICON starts us off as snow before going to a bad ice storm for next weekend Northern tier would be an epic glacier by the time it's done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon trended better @ h5 but it's a skating rink solution so I'm not sure everyone will call that "better". ETA: from a mby perspective. PSU is nude right now. HR135 is pretty sweet for us along the mason dixon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The ICON is dead set on an epic ice storm so far. It actually performed very well with the last storm so it is a bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Northern tier would be an epic glacier by the time it's done if ICON is right..it might be the worst ice storm off our life. 24 degrees during rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, mappy said: HR135 is pretty sweet for us along the mason dixon The whole thing is a razor's edge for our latitude. I'm not making any guesses other than I doubt our area is entirely rain everywhere. That's about it. The thurs/fri deal was strong on the Icon and pulled down colder air behind it. That piece will at least partially seal our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But note the positively or neutral tilted trof downstream. Seems to imply less of an amplifying system ie full blown cutter so the farther w pna ridge vs pos/neutral trof could be a wash which is not a bad thing. Would rather take my chances with that sort of setup tbh. agreed. Id take my chances w/ that look. Positive tilt actually helps for storm #1, but need boundary far enough south for storm #2, so its sorta which one you rooting for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Icon was a nice improvement compared to the 00z run. Wouldn't take much of an adjustment for a more snowier result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: if ICON is right..it might be the worst ice storm off our life. 24 degrees during rain? Not to mention single digits behind the front. If we got a couple inches of snow topped with an inch of ZR followed by the ice box it would be dispruptive to put it as mildly as possible. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Ji said: if ICON is right..it might be the worst ice storm off our life. 24 degrees during rain? That would cause some serious problems. It’s been awhile since we have had a high impact ice storm. I’d prefer snow but the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 NAO is killing us for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, mappy said: HR135 is pretty sweet for us along the mason dixon Yeah, it sure is. I'm just going to hug it until I find something better to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Nah, thinking he's referring to the low and trough dropping deeper south. exactly! Could bring the storm more in a favorable position for us or draw in more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The whole thing is a razor's edge for our latitude. I'm not making any guesses other than I doubt our area is entirely rain everywhere. That's about it. The thurs/fri deal was strong on the Icon and pulled down colder air behind it. That piece will at least partially seal our fate. Just catching up after the second dig out from yesterday. But yes - cold air - the key! Want better trends! Hate pure ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: exactly! Could bring the storm more in a favorable position for us or draw in more cold air. the problem is we have the cold air....but the track sucks...so its ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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