mappy Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said: There is a 6z EPS. They go out to 144. I have stormvista and they are there and very warm/west. weathermodels doesn't have 06z EPS, nor have I ever seen anyone post it before. can you share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, mappy said: weathermodels doesn't have 06z EPS, nor have I ever seen anyone post it before. can you share? It was posted a lot in the lead up to yesterday’s storm. It runs at 6z/18z to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, mappy said: weathermodels doesn't have 06z EPS, nor have I ever seen anyone post it before. can you share? SV is a paid site, so don’t think i can post images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It was posted a lot in the lead up to yesterday’s storm. It runs at 6z/18z to 144. 6 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: SV is a paid site, so don’t think i can post images. mmm ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The pattern is more favorable for a Chicago snowstorm than it is an I95 snowstorm. So I think models will eventually trend mostly rain for us with the snow jackpot in the Great Lakes and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Amped said: The pattern is more favorable for a Chicago snowstorm than it is an I95 snowstorm. So I think models will eventually trend mostly rain for us with the snow jackpot in the Great Lakes and NNE. Plus the MJO is quickly going into the unfavorable phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Amped said: The pattern is more favorable for a Chicago snowstorm than it is an I95 snowstorm. So I think models will eventually trend mostly rain for us with the snow jackpot in the Great Lakes and NNE. Agreed. The early phase is a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Plus the MJO is quickly going into the unfavorable phases. The MJO continues to be a thorn in our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: The MJO continues to be a thorn in our side. So are you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: So are you I don’t control the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, mappy said: mmm ok There is a 6/18z eps to 144. But he is still a tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: There is a 6/18z eps to 144. But he is still a tool. guess i haven't been paying attention. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Still too early to tell outcomes. I know the Northern part of this subforum is looking for more snow after this weekend. Also , see the potential for extreme cold is lessened after the 1/20 storm. Maybe extreme cold is pushed back to early Feb. Seeing talk about the MJO and again the Pac jet messing things up. It breaks down West Coast ridging. I believe the MJO should progress into better phases after this. Maybe this time period is what HM is talking about with the Midwest Blizzard. As Isotherm stated a few days ago in his update for the New York crew, there are issues still with the Pac/MJO , interference, etc., and it is evident coming up. Hopefully we get past these to the better looks the weeklies/ GEFS have shown Feb. I am very optimistic about late month and all of Feb and even March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 MJO is easily the weenie term of the season thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This to me this is more interesting than the MJO. What happened to the many ensemble members agreeing on a steep decline in the AO ? Today that is gone. This is beyond me, maybe someone can comment why this changed. @psuhoffman I see your are around, any ideas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said: I don’t control the weather The weather has been fine. Most of this forum will be ahead of climo even if we don’t get another inch of snow in January, which is very unlikely given the train of storms coming. You are correct the system next weekend favors rain att over snow but it’s not locked, there are ways it could work. And if not so what it’s one storm. We will have plenty of more chances. And finally the problem with you is you are like the long range version of snjokoma where all you do it point out what looks bad and then repeat it over and over and over. And your not even in your home forum. You aren’t here in good faith. Most are here because they enjoy the weather and like to track and get something positive out of this experience. You are here to annoy people and it’s pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The weather has been fine. Most of this forum will be ahead of climo even if we don’t get another inch of snow in January, which is very unlikely given the train of storms coming. You are correct the system next weekend favors rain att over snow but it’s not locked, there are ways it could work. And if not so what it’s one storm. We will have plenty of more chances. And finally the problem with you is you are like the long range version of snjokoma where all you do it point out what looks bad and then repeat it over and over and over. And your not even in your home forum. You aren’t here in good faith. Most are here because they enjoy the weather and like to track and get something positive out of this experience. You are here to annoy people and it’s pathetic. Sorry you feel that way. Glad you got snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: MJO is easily the weenie term of the season thus far Mjo is just a fancy way of saying where the tropical convection is in the western PAC and Indian Ocean. That is important. Same reason the enso is. Most of the heat being added to the atmospheric equation is from the tropics and so where that is drives the bus on the mid latitude long wave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6z Euro looks better than 0z for the Thursday night event. 0.5-1" for DC north when the run ends at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The weather has been fine. Most of this forum will be ahead of climo even if we don’t get another inch of snow in January, which is very unlikely given the train of storms coming. You are correct the system next weekend favors rain att over snow but it’s not locked, there are ways it could work. And if not so what it’s one storm. We will have plenty of more chances. And finally the problem with you is you are like the long range version of snjokoma where all you do it point out what looks bad and then repeat it over and over and over. And your not even in your home forum. You aren’t here in good faith. Most are here because they enjoy the weather and like to track and get something positive out of this experience. You are here to annoy people and it’s pathetic. Thanks for this, and I agree. I think there's some (understandable) disappointment over how things have recently trended or whatever for the upcoming weekend system, but there's a lot to work out on that yet to "despair" too much. Beyond that time, yes, it looks active for sure. That all said, I do have to say it's kind of a bit unnerving to see the MJO forecast go back into phase 5/6. Previously I think it was just rotating into the COD. But at any rate, maybe that doesn't matter as much...honestly, I'm not all that up on when the MJO is really a "big" factor vs. not. Some years, that's all you hear about, others, I never even see a plot and it's never mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: This to me this is more interesting than the MJO. What happened to the many ensemble members agreeing on a steep decline in the AO ? Today that is gone. This is beyond me, maybe someone can comment why this changed. @psuhoffman I see your are around, any ideas ? I was looking at the EPS this morning and the AO looks negative to me through day 15. Not something I would worry over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I was looking at the EPS this morning and the AO looks negative to me through day 15. Not something I would worry over. Cool, just wondering more so where the dive to -4 SD went. So many moving pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The MJO and AO changes are very concerning and disappointing, but we've seen things flip quickly so who knows. I was really excited about the weekend storm but it certainly now looks like either a slushy mess or straight rain, but maybe the system evolves. This last one didn't look so hot and then look how it turned out for a good portion of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I was looking at the EPS this morning and the AO looks negative to me through day 15. Not something I would worry over. Not sure, but maybe frd mixed up the NAO plot with an AO one (the one he shows is for NAO). I don't honestly know how either one has been trending over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Not sure, but maybe frd mixed up the NAO plot with an AO one (the one he shows is for NAO). I don't honestly know how either one has been trending over the past few days. If he meant the NAO, it looks ok too and is notoriously hard to predict at long leads anyway. I have felt all along the best period for legit NA blocking would be Feb. Weeklies have been consistent with that idea lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Ensembles for the next 15 days were a bit of a disappointment for my purposes. I would love to see at least some kind of snowfall while I was back home. GEFS was better in that regard than the EPS which was just horrid to look at this morning for snow chances through the 26th. Long range into late January and February still look great, but a kick in the gut for my sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: Cool, just wondering more so where the dive to -4 SD went. So many moving pieces. -4 is not necessary to get it done if other indices line up well. Same as MJO into unfavorable phases, but closer to the COD mutes the affects (to a degree). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Ensembles for the next 15 days were a bit of a disappointment for my purposes. I would love to see at least some kind of snowfall while I was back home. GEFS was better in that regard than the EPS which was just horrid to look at this morning for snow chances through the 26th. Long range into late January and February still look great, but a kick in the gut for my sake. I'm sure the change is mjo related but the mjo isn't a 1:1 correlation and we're in the best period of the year for things not to be perfect... That said, the WAR is looking a little stubborn now. Recency bias says the -epo/WAR combo produced big but that's not really how it works over longer timescales. Jan 94 is the best analog i can think of for the next 10 days at least. Not a perfect match but storm tracks sure remind me of that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 this last storm is proof that things can change pretty quickly. one thing that's pretty clear for this area (at least from my view) is that we have a better chance at precip overperforming than cold. this last storm looked squashy, but we found a way because we've got the gulf and atlantic on our side. "snow" cold is just not as easy. for the weekend situation, that high placement looks good in the midwest, but we may need it to be further east. this last storm we had a stout high tracking over top in unison with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 hours ago, stormtracker said: I can tell you this: It's good for absolutely nothing. LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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