January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Calendars are awesome 

math can be cool too. 

I wasn’t sure if week 1 started today or week from now.  But your snarktastic response has ensured I won’t ask that question again.  Much obliged.

[dallen7908]

How long does it take for a "perfect" pattern at 85000 feet to translate into a snow storm at the surface (for us)? Can I just add 20-30 days to the 16 day forecast? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's damn near perfect.

Went from hysteria to utopia in 45 minutes

This place drives me nuts at times I swear people.

[Ralph Wiggum]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What is the date stamp for week 4?  Is that Feb?

Jan 20

PSU just added you to his friends list.

[Wonderdog]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I wasn’t sure if week 1 started today or week from now.  But your snarktastic response has ensured I won’t ask that question again.  Much obliged.

Also, if you didn't already know, 28 days in Feb, unless it's leap year then its one more day to wait for the pattern shift. lol

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Utopia? Lol. Maybe if it wasnt 15 days away. We're totally screwed for at least 10 more days. Utopia wont start until we're tracking a discrete event inside of 5.

I still think we get a really good snow pattern at some point. Problem if we punt 2-3 weeks of January is that we have less margin for error if/when that pattern develops. If we get 4-5 weeks if that great pattern, we should do well. If it’s 2-3 weeks, a couple misses quickly locks us into a below climo winter. Happy new year!

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

This winter is a carbon copy of 09-10 except that the dec 19 blizzard went to Richmond. Jan 30 to feb 10 will be epic

Except we had a Nino by early August of 09 IIRC. The ENSO is still officially neutral as of today. We could still have an epic latter third of winter though if this thing gets its sh*t together.

[Cobalt]

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

This winter is a carbon copy of 09-10 except that the dec 19 blizzard went to Richmond. Jan 30 to feb 10 will be epic

If the South thing continues... The Feb 10 Miller B will be South and will crush DC/Baltimore and screw NYC. Of course that only works against us not in our favor

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Also, if you didn't already know, 28 days in Feb, unless it's leap year then its one more day to wait for the pattern shift. lol

I did not know that actually.  I do know that buying a snowblower kills winter.  And a Jeep.  So it’s both of our faults.  

[Bob Chill]

Ok, i'm feeling slightly better. Gefs gives the "a ok" to the op. We're good until the 0z eps comes out at least. 

Not perfect but def a snow pattern along the EC

[poolz1]

38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just my $.02 but from my reading and research lately there are SSWEs going on in tandem at both poles. This is apparently a rather rare event. Couple that with the near-record SSW SD event in our hemisphere and imho this is like a powder keg with a lit fuse. We are entering unchartered atmospheric conditions and to me it is clear why the models are struggling this severely and showing some rather unique and odd looks. Something is going to give over the next 2-3 weeks because I dont think anyone knows what to expect from these happenings at both poles and how they will effect this patterns globally. I think there is a 50/50 chance we either head into a highly anomalous pattern in the East which favors a 'cancel winter' type pattern OR something very wintry that we are all going to look back on and use as a measuring stick for future seasons. I just have a hunch things are going to bust wide open in a big way and it is really going to be worth the wait. Like I said tho its damn near impossible to say which way but some highly anomalous weather is coming to the US in a few weeks with wild swings and a tight gradient/boundary. I am holding out hope and I normally would have tossed the towel in by now. Heck even my winter outlook argues for much BN snowfall but somewhere in the East is going to pay for this run we r having....the atmosphere plays a balancing act it always has and always will and no I'm not referencing 'atmospheric memory' either lol.

Good post.  Basically, I have the same thoughts....I completely understand the wavering and I wanted an epic wall to wall winter just as much as the next guy/gal.  Doesnt mean we wont have an epic period tho....and that is where we are now.  We cant bring back the last 4 weeks and the next 10 days are certainly craptastic-ish.  But there is nothing that has really changed in respect to the LR drivers....except being moved further back in time.  Is what it is...  It still appears that things will line up but I am hesitant to believe anything until I see it within 7 days....  

 

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Ok, i'm feeling slightly better. Gefs gives the "a ok" to the op. We're good until the 0z eps comes out at least. 

Not perfect but def a snow pattern along the EC

GEFS has been pretty consistently advertising a pretty decent/serviceable h5 look in the LR for the past several runs. I am totally good with this look. If only the EPS would make a move in this direction. 

[Wonderdog]

13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I did not know that actually.  I do know that buying a snowblower kills winter.  And a Jeep.  So it’s both of our faults.  

Just to show you that I believe in the upcoming pattern change, tomorrow I will not only put the oil into the SB, I will peruse the manual. 

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

Just to show you that I believe in the upcoming pattern change, tomorrow I will not only put the oil into the SB, I will peruse the manual. 

I’d prefer you burn the manual because u know it’s never going to snow (reverse psychology)

[Wonderdog]

25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I did not know that actually.  I do know that buying a snowblower kills winter.  And a Jeep.  So it’s both of our faults.  

I'm assuming that you haven't waited for a snowstorm to use that Jeep. I on the other hand.....

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs actually has a few members with a "cold  enough" look at day 8 to score something 

Weak sauce on member output. Only 2 of 20 showing anything decent. Couple others show a dusting. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS weeklies look epic for Feb. We just need to punt the second month of met winter in addition to the first, and we will be rockin'.

 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Welp, weeklies look fantastic weeks 4-7. Week 3 implies that that the pac trough will flip during week 3. I dont trust a single panel but week 4+ is weenie heaven

I was thinking about this last week after the EPS again for about the 3rd time lost the good look on week 3 of the weeklies and it became obvious if was off track again. 

So the seasonal and sub seasons guidance (euro, UK, JMA) mostly has been going to the same look. And it's the look supported by analogs. Especially SST analogs. For instance JDs pioneer model looks almost identical. Yea wxbell is incredibly biased but that model is purely an SST based analog output. Problem is analogs depend on factors not changing AND sometimes the oceans aren't the only factor and some factors can be less predictable. 

So it's reasonable to conclude that the SST does support the look all the long range guidance continues to try to go to. But "something" keeps derailing it. Something the long range guidance isn't seeing or weighting correctly.  

Its likely that it is the mjo. Things started to go off track when that went went all ape into the warm phases. And it's known the long range guidance struggles with the mjo. So it makes sense. Also HM has explained why there will be a lag effect getting the impact of the mjo wave through phases 3-6 to wear off. 

Now that doesn't mean we're all clear and good once the mjo progresses. What if it cycles right back into another rage through warm phases after only 2 weeks?  What if I'm wrong and there is another culprit simply being covered up by the mjo. What if some hypotheses (tip proposed this and JB seems to have stolen it) that the lack of temp contrast is muting the nino and so the analogs are irrelevant?  But that's a lot of ifs also. 

The most likely conclusion imo is still that the guidance is underestimating the mjo at range and trying to revert to what the pattern should be absent the effects of tropical convection around the eastern Indian Ocean and Australia messing up and preventing a typical nino Pacific pattern.  If so than as long as the mjo and soi are unfavorable the models are wrong in flipping. But as soon as those two factors revert to a more typical nino state the pattern flip should actually take place. 

Then the question becomes how long does it hold and the specifics we need to snow here. Gettin lucky.  But we need the mjo and soi to become cooperative sooner rather then later. A flip in late January still favors us getting enough chances to have a good shot at beating climo. A flip 2 weeks later and not so much.  Then of course does it stick for a couple weeks or 5/6?  That's where I'm at right now.  Still think odds favor a flip to a high latitude blocking regime with a -epo pattern. Maybe I'm just being stubborn and optimistic but I'm riding this to the end. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Hope although not a plan is all we have right now.  The winter is far too young at this point to write it off on Dec 31st.  We could see some massive turnaround just past mid month.  

No doubt.

Most definitely not in the "writing off winter" camp.  Just frustrated (like many) as we've been skunked by LR guidance.  Thats all.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Fantasy gfs implies that the strat and trop not only couple but work in our favor

triplets.........

[Amped]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's damn near perfect.

The second shot assured the vortex was not getting up and beating the 10 count. It could have recovered from the first hit.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

triplets.........

Daughter triplets?

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Daughter triplets?

Daughters or sisters?

I think I prefer twisted sisters.

[pasnownut]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Daughter triplets?

your quick.....

keep drinking....its NYE  !!

I read your post above and sounds like I'm not alone in my thinking.  To your point, this is most definitely going to be one to store in the memory bank once we see where this goes.

 

[pasnownut]

On a side note.  

It's been real....its been fun....but it aint been real fun......so far!! 

 

I'm checkin out as we have guests coming.  

Happy New Year to all!!  Looking forward to 2019!!

Thanks for putting up w/ a "northerner".  Y'all are fun to hang w/.

 

Nut

[poolz1]

35 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Daughters or sisters?

I think I prefer twisted sisters.

Agreed. We're not gonna take it.....unless we get -EPO/NAO/AO

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I was thinking about this last week after the EPS again for about the 3rd time lost the good look on week 3 of the weeklies and it became obvious if was off track again. 

So the seasonal and sub seasons guidance (euro, UK, JMA) mostly has been going to the same look. And it's the look supported by analogs. Especially SST analogs. For instance JDs pioneer model looks almost identical. Yea wxbell is incredibly biased but that model is purely an SST based analog output. Problem is analogs depend on factors not changing AND sometimes the oceans aren't the only factor and some factors can be less predictable. 

So it's reasonable to conclude that the SST does support the look all the long range guidance continues to try to go to. But "something" keeps derailing it. Something the long range guidance isn't seeing or weighting correctly.  

Its likely that it is the mjo. Things started to go off track when that went went all ape into the warm phases. And it's known the long range guidance struggles with the mjo. So it makes sense. Also HM has explained why there will be a lag effect getting the impact of the mjo wave through phases 3-6 to wear off. 

Now that doesn't mean we're all clear and good once the mjo progresses. What if it cycles right back into another rage through warm phases after only 2 weeks?  What if I'm wrong and there is another culprit simply being covered up by the mjo. What if some hypotheses (tip proposed this and JB seems to have stolen it) that the lack of temp contrast is muting the nino and so the analogs are irrelevant?  But that's a lot of ifs also. 

The most likely conclusion imo is still that the guidance is underestimating the mjo at range and trying to revert to what the pattern should be absent the effects of tropical convection around the eastern Indian Ocean and Australia messing up and preventing a typical nino Pacific pattern.  If so than as long as the mjo and soi are unfavorable the models are wrong in flipping. But as soon as those two factors revert to a more typical nino state the pattern flip should actually take place. 

Then the question becomes how long does it hold and the specifics we need to snow here. Gettin lucky.  But we need the mjo and soi to become cooperative sooner rather then later. A flip in late January still favors us getting enough chances to have a good shot at beating climo. A flip 2 weeks later and not so much.  Then of course does it stick for a couple weeks or 5/6?  That's where I'm at right now.  Still think odds favor a flip to a high latitude blocking regime with a -epo pattern. Maybe I'm just being stubborn and optimistic but I'm riding this to the end. 

I honestly think I am done blaming this "disappointment" of a pattern on the MJO. Remember the concept of, when sh*t is going wrong, we bring up the MJO- otherwise, its barely mentioned? Here is the reality- we currently do not have a legit Nino- the background state is not Nino, and  in fact, the overall pattern is behaving much more like a Nina. Currently, and officially, the ENSO is neutral, so this 'unfavorable' pattern really should not be a shocking development. Sure the current MJO pulse is robust and lagging in the warmer phases, and while it does have an influence, obviously it alone does not dictate the large scale long wave pattern. The SOI has been positive- more in line with a Nina. Just today it has flipped slightly negative I believe. I suspect going forward the troposphere will begin to behave more like a Nino(assuming the guidance is correct and a weak Nino is in fact underway), and we will see more favorable h5 "snowy" looks heading into the very end of Jan and esp Feb into early March. This Nino is both weak and late to the party, and I think the high expectations have largely been a function of the early hyperbole associated with unreasonable comparisons to winters such as 2009-10. I expect the EPAC will become favorable, and we will see a period of sustained NA blocking, much later than most preferred, but in line with a later developing El Nino.

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I honestly think I am done blaming this "disappointment" of a pattern on the MJO. Remember the concept of, when sh*t is going wrong, we bring up the MJO- otherwise, its barely mentioned? Here is the reality- we currently do not have a legit Nino- the background state is not Nino, and  in fact, the overall pattern is behaving much more like a Nina. Currently, and officially, the ENSO is neutral, so this 'unfavorable' pattern really should not be a shocking development. Sure the current MJO pulse is robust and lagging in the warmer phases, and while it does have an influence, obviously it alone does not dictate the large scale long wave pattern. The SOI has been positive- more in line with a Nina. Just today it has flipped slightly negative I believe. I suspect going forward the troposphere will begin to behave more like a Nino(assuming the guidance is correct and a weak Nino is in fact underway), and we will see more favorable h5 "snowy" looks heading into the very end of Jan and esp Feb into early March. This Nino is both weak and late to the party, and I think the high expectations have largely been a function of the early hyperbole associated with unreasonable comparisons to winters such as 2009-10. I expect the EPAC will become favorable, and we will see a period of sustained NA blocking, much later than most preferred, but in line with a later developing El Nino.

What organization "officially" determines if there is an el nino going on or not?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

What organization "officially" determines if there is an el nino going on or not?

CPC/NCEP

Here is the most recent update (today):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Maestrobjwa]

47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I honestly think I am done blaming this "disappointment" of a pattern on the MJO. Remember the concept of, when sh*t is going wrong, we bring up the MJO- otherwise, its barely mentioned? Here is the reality- we currently do not have a legit Nino- the background state is not Nino, and  in fact, the overall pattern is behaving much more like a Nina. Currently, and officially, the ENSO is neutral, so this 'unfavorable' pattern really should not be a shocking development. Sure the current MJO pulse is robust and lagging in the warmer phases, and while it does have an influence, obviously it alone does not dictate the large scale long wave pattern. The SOI has been positive- more in line with a Nina. Just today it has flipped slightly negative I believe. I suspect going forward the troposphere will begin to behave more like a Nino(assuming the guidance is correct and a weak Nino is in fact underway), and we will see more favorable h5 "snowy" looks heading into the very end of Jan and esp Feb into early March. This Nino is both weak and late to the party, and I think the high expectations have largely been a function of the early hyperbole associated with unreasonable comparisons to winters such as 2009-10. I expect the EPAC will become favorable, and we will see a period of sustained NA blocking, much later than most preferred, but in line with a later developing El Nino.

I'm still wondering...if this nino will be more of a two-year event (especially if it is developing late!). In which case...perhaps the next winter we could expect more typical nino behavior throughout the winter as opposed to...whatever we're seeing now?

[nj2va]

50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I honestly think I am done blaming this "disappointment" of a pattern on the MJO. Remember the concept of, when sh*t is going wrong, we bring up the MJO- otherwise, its barely mentioned? Here is the reality- we currently do not have a legit Nino- the background state is not Nino, and  in fact, the overall pattern is behaving much more like a Nina. Currently, and officially, the ENSO is neutral, so this 'unfavorable' pattern really should not be a shocking development. Sure the current MJO pulse is robust and lagging in the warmer phases, and while it does have an influence, obviously it alone does not dictate the large scale long wave pattern. The SOI has been positive- more in line with a Nina. Just today it has flipped slightly negative I believe. I suspect going forward the troposphere will begin to behave more like a Nino(assuming the guidance is correct and a weak Nino is in fact underway), and we will see more favorable h5 "snowy" looks heading into the very end of Jan and esp Feb into early March. This Nino is both weak and late to the party, and I think the high expectations have largely been a function of the early hyperbole associated with unreasonable comparisons to winters such as 2009-10. I expect the EPAC will become favorable, and we will see a period of sustained NA blocking, much later than most preferred, but in line with a later developing El Nino.

You bring up a great point. I keep pointing to MJO and SOI as driving this since they are behaving like a Nina but this is a late blooming Nino which would dictate a later flip than normal. I still think we have a solid period of active tracking with AN snowfall...earlier the flip the better obviously. Maybe instead of the 15th it’s a week-10 days later.