yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: For us newbies, what is WAR? I can tell you this: It's good for absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro is dreadful. Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro is dreadful. Not even close 60 on Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro is dreadful. Not even close 12z will be back to bidness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 So next weekend's weather is somewhere between a HECS and a winter torch? Good luck, mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6Z GEFS mean SLP actually looks decent for the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6z GEFS have improved the look for next Sunday. Colder..slightly better slp track. Big SECS/MECS hit for i95 on the means. Individuals are dropping the HECS look (a couple mixed in) but that may not be a bad thing. Lots of spread/uncertainty tho still between the various globals. Eta: @DCTeacherman ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 UKMET cutter likely not happening given the trof axis and pv up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Given that we are five days out , basically, the range of outcomes on just the OPs is amusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Huge truth here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 So is the Friday threat still alive for pre-gaming for the Sunday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Huge truth here! Seems to be implying this is likely an inland runner and not frozen for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Seems to be implying this is likely an inland runner and not frozen for us. Nah, thinking he's referring to the low and trough dropping deeper south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I think that means that if the Friday storm is stronger, which it has been trending stronger then it will weaken the SE ridge and allow for a more south track and snowier solution. But the bigger player here is the TPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I wish he'd tweet in English. Or that I was smart enough to translate HM-ese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Quick glance but I like where we stand for the weekend storm. Big player on what we get is going to be the Friday system and it's progression and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: I think that means that if the Friday storm is stronger, which it has been trending stronger then it will weaken the SE ridge and allow for a more south track and snowier solution. But the bigger player here is the TPV. Yep and I think a stronger Friday storm would translate into a better 50/50 low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Hopefully we ice box afterwards. Whatever falls could stick around for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Quick glance but I like where we stand for the weekend storm. Big player on what we get is going to be the Friday system and it's progression and strength. PNA ridge axis too. It’s been trending west which favors a west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yep and I think a stronger Friday storm would translate into a better 50/50 low too. Sometimes yes. But can’t a stronger lead storm also make a trailing wave have trouble digging as the lead wave can flatten the flow on the backside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 LWX AFD from last night, did a really good job discussing the Thursday/Friday and into the weekend threat. Apologies for the length. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Wednesday, a strong upper level low will move to the north over eastern Canada and New England on Wednesday. A surface low associated with the upper level disturbance is expected to move through eastern Canada and New England. A weak frontal boundary associated with this low will extend down into the mid-Atlantic. It seems the best areas for the formation of precipitation associated with this boundary will be up in Pennsylvania and New England. Some models are showing some potential for up slope induced showers over our western mountains due to a westerly flow and the weak boundary moving through our region. Behind this frontal boundary, we expect cooler air to be transported into the region due to a northwesterly flow. Daytime temperatures continue to trend upwards on Wednesday up into the low to mid 40s with overnight temps in 20s. Thursday into Friday, a 500mb shortwave will move through our region Thursday into Friday. A weak low pressure system will form over the upper Midwest and move into our region during this period. The models are disagreeing on when this system will affect the region. The 00z Euro tends to be slightly quicker than the 12Z GFS and has most of the precipitation moving in from the west. The 12Z GFS phases the western low with a coastal low early on Friday leading to precipitation building in from the south. As cold air could be in place ahead of this system, there will be the potential for some snow forming and moving through the region. Snow showers will be focused over the Northern Maryland and Western Virginia areas while a rain and snow mix will be more likely over southern Maryland and central Virginia. The question for this system will be how much cold air gets locked into the system after Wednesday`s system. On Saturday, the low will move out late Friday into early Saturday leading to a lull in precipitation between systems. A strong upper level trough will shift eastward from the Midwest toward out area Saturday into Sunday. The system that will affect our region this upcoming weekend could potential drop more snow on our area. As cold air may remain locked into our region ahead of the approaching mid- latitude surface low pressure system. The 00Z European keeps cold air locked into our region while the GFS initially has temperatures warming into the low 40s before dropping as winds become northwesterly. The European would be very snowy while the GFS would start as rain and finish as snow. The bulk of the precipitation would be late Saturday and continue into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6z EPS (won’t ever get used to that) do not look good for the weekend system. PV phases in and drives the storm west. Hopefully they and the op are too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: 6z EPS (won’t ever get used to that) do not look good for the weekend system. PV phases in and drives the storm west. Hopefully they and the op are too amped. This post above is probably a good indication we are going to get shellacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 With a split flow and the TPV pretty close by and spinning off lobes, uncertainty with this system remains high. The pattern will be evolving to colder, but not quite there yet. If there is an (early) phase with a NS lobe, that would likely cause the storm to track too far NW with the advertised look in the W Atlantic. If things time up better (later), could see a more favorable southern track. This has the look of a messy/mixy event on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: 6z EPS (won’t ever get used to that) do not look good for the weekend system. PV phases in and drives the storm west. Hopefully they and the op are too amped. few things 1. there is no 06z EPS 2. 06z and 18z Euro only go out to hr90 3. 00z EPS is pretty good this far out for your backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 38 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yep and I think a stronger Friday storm would translate into a better 50/50 low too. EE rule to add to positives you mentioned as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 06z GEFS is a nice track from southern Texas to off the Carolina coast. Banana high supplying cold air throughout the storm. Below that is the 0z EPS which tracks from North Texas across Kentucky then off the DELMARVA. More mixed precip solution for areas north and west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 What a major ice storm signal on the 0z Euro. It might trend colder. I always took that 92-93 and 93-94 were El Nino's, if you look at subsurface data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, mappy said: few things 1. there is no 06z EPS 2. 06z and 18z Euro only go out to hr90 3. 00z EPS is pretty good this far out for your backyard There is a 6z EPS. They go out to 144. I have stormvista and they are there and very warm/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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