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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What a staggering Eps 15 day mean for qpf in the east.... for January  . We are going to need a bigger shovel ..........

or a bigger boat lol

 

Screenshot_20190113-202839_Chrome_crop_540x509.jpg

Oh man... that is just incredible. Let's hope most of it is frozen. What is the scale for that map? 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, tpv is our ticket if it dives down enough. After today's overperformer i'm not anxious at all. It's a tricky setup with a path to victory. I honestly don't care about the midweek deal at all. If we maximize next weekend we'll all top climo in a week. Lol. Wut?!

Fully expecting a lot of mix along 95 but the TPV is the wildcard with how much frozen vs wet we see.  Who’s starting the thread? Lol

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25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Fully expecting a lot of mix along 95 but the TPV is the wildcard with how much frozen vs wet we see.  Who’s starting the thread? Lol

Same here.  I fully expect that at this point.  My only hope is that it's more like a decent snow to a mix with ice/sleet, rather than transition to all rain...and perhaps then back to snow for awhile as the really cold air pours in.  Lots to work out, it will be an interesting week for sure!

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10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Same here.  I fully expect that at this point.  My only hope is that it's more like a decent snow to a mix with ice/sleet, rather than transition to all rain...and perhaps then back to snow for awhile as the really cold air pours in.  Lots to work out, it will be an interesting week for sure!

I’d say its unlikely at this point we see all rain here.  Probably snow/ice-sleet-mix/snow at this point.  It looks to be a potent storm so whoever can stay all snow in the subforum will really cash in.

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9 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Same here.  I fully expect that at this point.  My only hope is that it's more like a decent snow to a mix with ice/sleet, rather than transition to all rain...and perhaps then back to snow for awhile as the really cold air pours in.  Lots to work out, it will be an interesting week for sure!

I love exciting winter weather, but last winter we lost 1/3 of the tops of both of our rather tall scott pines and one more significant ice event would be the end. 

Wish when we first moved here many years ago I considered outcomes like this. I planted too many trees because our home is on an old farm field and I longed for trees and shade, years later, my view on things has changed. 

Anyways, I hope snow or rain, even sleet, but please no ice storm.      

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Just coming to post the same.  Seems Friday is trending our way.

made some good improvements. I dont buy its track with the High positioned like that...and its probably Snow to Ice. Ive never seen the ICON show ice before lol

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i just checked the icon temps for weekend storm. we dont go above freezing despite the bad track

It's a pretty good ice setup honestly. We need psu to run the cips model and tell us how much snow and ice we're getting so i don't have to stay up for the euro this week

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's a pretty good ice setup honestly. We need psu to run the cips model and tell us how much snow and ice we're getting so i don't have to stay up for the euro this week

LOL...ill take 5 inches of snow, an inch of ice(old larry cosgrove joke) and 3 inches of snow on back side...that might be to me as epic as any HECS. I like ZR...especially after 94 season

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

LOL...ill take 5 inches of snow, an inch of ice(old larry cosgrove joke) and 3 inches of snow on back side...that might be to me as epic as any HECS. I like ZR...especially after 94 season

2 mid range trends we've seen recently are further south and colder than d5+. This one might be a big storm so models will do better with general progression from longer range. If the euro goes warmer tonight it would be a bad sign. I'm almost expecting it. The WAR is a crappy feature for snow here. 

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol But the cips actually turned out pretty decent for today, didn't it? 

Yes, turned out really good. Argued for a much bigger storm and it was right. We just need psu to tell us what cips says and we can stop looking at models

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