cbmclean Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The good blocking isn't progged to develop for another 2 weeks. Enough cold around to keep things interesting but with unblocked progressive flow it's wise to not expect any clean snowstorms until later in the month. The stronger the storm the higher the odds for mixed or rain I'll take that over a torch any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 not an all snow setup but with that cad it does have the look of a warning level winter storm! Trends will be fun to watch this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, cbmclean said: I'll take that over a torch any day. Your area needs suppressed blocked flow. This panel is nearly perfect for NC snow and it's just getting started. The most impressive part is every past piece of long range guidance looks like this. You guys are getting snow. It's not an if but a when. Bad luck and chaos are the only negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 fwiw, models struggle with snow cover. Albedo will save us next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, kurtstack said: not an all snow setup but with that cad it does have the look of a warning level winter storm! Trends will be fun to watch this week. Love it! Gimmee ice and snow..mix it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Ice Storm Warning FtW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Your area needs suppressed blocked flow. This panel is nearly perfect for NC snow and it's just getting started. The most impressive part is every past piece of long range guidance looks like this. You guys are getting snow. It's not an if but a when. Bad luck and chaos are the only negatives. Thanks. I woul dlike to share your post in my home forum. I have seen others do this but am not sure how. Do you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 When's the next ALEET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Next weekend definitely looks like a more traditional spread in snow totals with more northwest and less south and east. Euro destroys western MD next weekend. I wonder where @nj2va will be next weekend?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I counted six possible frozen chances between today and the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 the EPS mean is actually colder today than it was yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 34 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I counted six possible frozen chances between today and the 29th. Which means it may not be wise for anybody to get to invested in the one on the 20th...really don't think it'll be worth the energy looking at what the more experienced minds on here and twitter are saying. I'm turning my attention to all the potential that could come after! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Which means it may not be wise for anybody to get to invested in the one on the 20th...really don't think it'll be worth the energy looking at what the more experienced minds on here and twitter are saying. Next Sunday could be quite the winter storm. A mix is favored at the moment but could be several inches of snow followed by a serious ice storm. Too early for details but could be a huge storm for the entire eastern conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Did nobody mention the FV3? We'd be tracking 5 storms by in the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 What a weenie eps run. Next weekend shifting towards more wet or ice than snow but it just keeps going with cold and snow chances beyond. D15 h5 panel is epic. Sleep will be optional for the next 2 if not 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: What a weenie eps run. Next weekend shifting towards more wet or ice than snow but it just keeps going with cold and snow chances beyond. D15 h5 panel is epic. Sleep will be optional for the next 2 if not 6 weeks. As the ridge builds on the north atl and retrogrades rain will become less and less a risk. Your right next weekend is likely mix or rain. But after that it’s unlikeky we don’t score something in what’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Weeklies might have been too slow... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 hours ago, jaydreb said: North trend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What a weenie eps run. Next weekend shifting towards more wet or ice than snow but it just keeps going with cold and snow chances beyond. D15 h5 panel is epic. Sleep will be optional for the next 2 if not 6 weeks. That's awesome news, Bob! And hey, I think after almost nothing around here since the Jan. 2016 blizzard, we've all amassed quite the surplus of sleep. Time to crack into that and have many late nights or all-nighters!! Concerning next weekend, I've been keeping a distant eye on it but getting more intrigued now that we're closing out the current event. Like you and others have suggested, it likely does not look like a good setup for all snow around here. Question for you...what are your thoughts on the idea of transitioning from some kind of snow to ice/sleet at this point in time? I don't mean that to sound like a loaded or unfair question, as it's a week out (LOL!!), of course. But this is a very interesting situation setting up. I know that the ridiculous inch-plus ice that the Euro was showing is highly likely to be way overdone. But there have been some unreal crazy model solutions showing up in the past couple of days showing outrageous snow amounts here or outrageous icing sandwiched between pretty good snows before and after. Mainly, I think we're all hoping to avoid an all rain or nearly all rain scenario. I can envision the snow/ice/snow progression, followed by very cold right after. The thing that makes this quite interesting is the Arctic push coming in right around when the storm occurs. Some output has indicated a frontal/low passage with another wave forming soon after the cold air rushes in here. In any event, we've got a lot to cover this upcoming week for sure. And I think even if next weekend is "meh" or mostly rainy (hopefully not, though!), there will be several other opportunities nearly right after that. Either way, I think people need to realize that next weekend won't be perfect for us and to not expect 40" of snow or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 @Always in Zugzwang my only thoughts about next weekend are it's going to be a big storm in the east and it prob won't be all rain in our area. General track should be locked in by tues/wed. We'll know one way or the other shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: As the ridge builds on the north atl and retrogrades rain will become less and less a risk. Your right next weekend is likely mix or rain. But after that it’s unlikeky we don’t score something in what’s coming. All systems go , epic HL look on the GEFS , best in many years. Like Bob stated , weeklies too slow with Epic pattern, it will start sooner looking at the EPS IMHO. Today Isotherm describes the pattern after the Jan 20to the 23 rd as " Excellent " , and this from HM. We are going to be busy! Lovin it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 With the ECM continuing to keep this 20th-21st monster on a southern track, I believe that the snow potential is higher than advertised and freezing rain less likely, as the leading wave on 19th looks set to drop a bit of sleety mix, then quite possibly the actual low will have more cold air to lift and it won't blast in those higher 850s as shown, but will produce frontal boundaries that resemble the current setup. This would bring S+ down into the I-95 corridor and put the mixed precip into an OCE-RIC arc including the southern counties of Maryland west of the Bay. The CMC solution looks way too far north given the overall pattern and the GFS could use some definition but isn't entirely against the snow outcome, more of a rain to snow sort of look at the moment. The analogy might be Jan 28-30, 2010 with a stronger storm in the trailing position this time. That was also a perigeean full moon (Jan 30) following a northern max by 2-3 days, this year the timing separation is a bare two days but that's ideal for the one-two hit with 24-36h of cold air damming potential between storms (although at the moment the N Max event is so weak it can't be called a storm as such). In 2010 IIRC the N Max went well to the north and pulled in 60s before the front set up ahead of the first snowstorm of the 2010 run. This year, you have some chance of retaining a bit of snow cover from this weekend into a weaker warm advection event, so ground could be snow covered into onset of Jan 20. I know it's marginal but if the low center does track across s.e. VA then it's not far from the 2016 track. That was also near the full moon. So was Jan 96. It may be coincidence but my research shows there is always a strong one-two pulse of energy in January at this N Max full moon combination (which must be 1.5 to 3.5 days apart depending on how late the full moon is into January). The energy can run well north of you in a mild pattern, as with 1999 or going back a long way, 1967. The bottom line is, somebody is going to get a huge snowfall out of Jan 20-21, could be you and then NYC-BOS, could be OH-PA-NY and se MI into s ON. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 @Bob Chill thanks, appreciate your input as always. I know this is not going to be totally clear until at least mid-week. Hope my questions didn't sound too weenieish, obviously not expecting anyone to have a set answer right now. But man, it sure does look like a major event of some type either way. Trying to recall last time I saw so many wild jaw dropping solutions being offered by the models like this. Maybe the Jan. 2016 blizzard (different scenario there of course). Wild ride coming up this week for sure and beyond that too! Great event last night and today, much needed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: The analogy might be Jan 28-30, 2010 with a stronger storm in the trailing position this time. That was also a perigeean full moon (Jan 30) following a northern max by 2-3 days, this year the timing separation is a bare two days but that's ideal for the one-two hit with 24-36h of cold air damming potential between storms (although at the moment the N Max event is so weak it can't be called a storm as such). In 2010 IIRC the N Max went well to the north and pulled in 60s before the front set up ahead of the first snowstorm of the 2010 run. Cranky also alluded to the possibility of the weekend storm setting up another storm after it (you almost wonder if a cutter is desirable to set up the next system, lol). And what's this about the moon? Sounds like you're trying to be an almanac whisperer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18z GFS sure ain't a rainer for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Working with some confluence on the 18z gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 TPV orientation looks better on the 18z GFS...this should be a much more frozen run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, poolz1 said: Working with some confluence on the 18z gfs... Wow, that high is really stomping the storm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Amped said: Wow, that high is really stomping the storm this run. Yep...gonna be a classic run. Long week ahead most likely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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