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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s a cold and stormy look. In that particular case we might need that little bit of war to keep storms from being squashed

That look is almost exactly like week 3 or 4 from the Euro weeklies, but here it appears the GEFS pushes it up in time.  Maybe a little less blocking in the EPO domain.  Big tiime WOOF with that look.  

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53 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

I've got a flight for a cruise on the 26th.  I know those insanely low temps won't verify, but I certainly wouldn't be thrilled to have an empty house all week w/such low temps

I hear you! Sadly for my husband, he is being abandoned for my girls' trip, so he will be holding down the fort and saving the pipes!

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

That look is almost exactly like week 3 or 4 from the Euro weeklies, but here it appears the GEFS pushes it up in time.  Maybe a little less blocking in the EPO domain.  Big tiime WOOF with that look.  

It's pretty crazy that we just 'boom'd' and had a storm bullseye the subforum with everything breaking in our favor in the last 24 hours....and this all came on the front end of the pattern flip BEFORE the epic looks take hold over NA.  The looks on the LR ensembles match the epic looks on the weeklies and seasonal guidance which gives confidence we'll see those advertised patterns.  WOOF.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It's pretty crazy that we just 'boom'd' and had a storm bullseye the subforum with everything breaking in our favor in the last 24 hours....and this all came on the front end of the pattern flip BEFORE the epic looks take hold over NA.  The looks on the LR ensembles match the epic looks on the weeklies and seasonal guidance which gives confidence we'll see those advertised patterns.  WOOF.

Interesting the GEFS overall has more support for colder solutions for the event next weekend, versus some other models. Maybe more clarity in a couple days. But, the hammer looks to drop after this. 

Like seeing the SOI at  

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -9.04
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2 minutes ago, frd said:

Interesting the GEFS overall has more support for colder solutions for the event next weekend, versus some other models. Maybe more clarity in a couple days. But, the hammer looks to drop after this. 

Like seeing the SOI at  

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -9.04

GEFS was consistently snowier than EPS for today's storm which turned out correct.  Weenie handbook says to trust it more for next weekend.  ;)

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Is it weird that idgas about tracking the 1-3" later this week? Snow on snow is cool but i won't be staying up for the euro until later tonight

1-3" sandwiched between a warning event and multiple potential MECS/HECS is just a stats padder.  

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s a cold and stormy look. In that particular case we might need that little bit of war to keep storms from being squashed. 

Thanks...appreciate it.  Didnt know if the compressed look would allow systems to amplify?  Regardless...The potential thru the foreseeable future is through the roof...

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Is it weird that idgas about tracking the 1-3" later this week? Snow on snow is cool but i won't be staying up for the euro until later tonight

Haha!  Yeah, kind of reminiscent of the "Groundhog Day" Feb. 2 snow we got right before the two big HECSs shortly after!  I don't know how many people were really caring much about that at the time, even though we got ~5" out of it (and it was very pretty, similar to today's snow)!

Not saying I think next weekend and the following week is a "guarantee" by any means, but man, that signal for *something* big is there.  If it weren't for the fact that my power would probably go out in this situation, I'd think (if it can't be all snow) it would be cool to get heavy snow followed by glacier/ice followed by wrap-around snow, then very cold!  That would be damn near epic.  Hell with it, I've got plenty of blankets and will have a fully charged phone, screw it if the power were to go! :D

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

I'm feeling like it won't be snow on snow. At least by me, I think it'll be warm enough this week to erase most of this 5 inches by Friday. 

That's why you set an alarm for 1am and spend the wee hours shoveling all the snow from the neighbor's yard into yours. This is an advanced weenie strategy that is only taught at ivy league weenie schools

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1103 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2019  
 
VALID 12Z WED JAN 16 2019 - 12Z SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
..CALIFORNIA HEAVY PRECIPITATION WED-THU  
 
...COLD AIR SURGES THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. LATER THIS  
WEEK...   
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HEAVY RAIN/SNOW THREAT NEXT WEEKEND  
   
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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's why you set an alarm for 1am and spend the wee hours shoveling all the snow from the neighbor's yard into yours. This is an advanced weenie strategy that is only taught at ivy league weenie schools

Hahaha I have a lot to learn 

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28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's why you set an alarm for 1am and spend the wee hours shoveling all the snow from the neighbor's yard into yours. This is an advanced weenie strategy that is only taught at ivy league weenie schools

Excuse me. But that’s an advanced honors g/t class only taught at one University in the country. JEBMAN UNIVERSITY!:lol:

 

cc @Jebman

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

That’s a slug of polar air chasing a storm off the coast to our south look, right?

Definitely some cold air behind that storm and probably colder air after the storm after that.  Timing the cold air with the storm track is obviously key to this weekend.  Certainly some cutter risk, but even a cutter could provide frontside or backside frozen if things work out.  This Friday's storm and the associated northern stream low are pretty key to setting the boundary location that the  weekend storm will ride along.  

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