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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I know I'm late to the 6z FV3 party, but that looks like a fun 2 weeks.  1-2" Friday, rain-fzra-sleet bomb-snow over the weekend, MECS the middle of next week, and then subzero high temps at the end.  

That’s the coldest I’ve ever seen depicted on a model run. -15F for DC/Balt.

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I know this probably belongs in banter but I had to share the visual.  FV3 is out to lunch but I dont ever recall seeing something like these temps modeled....even in fantasy range.  Just indicative of the wild weather on the way..

JjxBPfs.png

Records shattered.  That -15 at DCA has stood for too long.  

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21 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I know this probably belongs in banter but I had to share the visual.  FV3 is out to lunch but I dont ever recall seeing something like these temps modeled....even in fantasy range.  Just indicative of the wild weather on the way..

JjxBPfs.png

SO that is showing -upper 20's around here, coldest temp I've recorded since 1979 is -21 on 1/19/85, this would shatter that by a good bit......

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Can not believe I am missing the tracking on this upcoming period. Just so hard to follow on my phone. Not to mention I am busy donating to the casino. :) but from what I am seeing I will be coming back to a lights out period of time. Not to mention my Jan 20 to 22 period of time looks like a lot of fun. Hope everyone is enjoying the snow they are getting now. Have a good feeling it's nothing more than just a small appetizer. 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Can not believe I am missing the tracking on this upcoming period. Just so hard to follow on my phone. Not to mention I am busy donating to the casino. :) but from what I am seeing I will be coming back to a lights out period of time. Not to mention my Jan 20 to 22 period of time looks like a lot of fun. Hope everyone is enjoying the snow they are getting now. Have a good feeling it's nothing more than just a small appetizer. 

I’ve missed your posts!   Can’t wait to see what the next couple of weeks bring. I’ve been telling friends that this one is the appetizer. Hope it’s true, but not too excited about a prolonged period of below normal temps. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Most of that is not snow

Bit late reading through the most recent stuff here, but yeah I think that's snow followed by a boat load (iceberg load?) of sleet and ice then some snow at the end and very cold. Would be quite spectacular if very destructive. There have been some crazy solutions appearing the past couple of days! 

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23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Can not believe I am missing the tracking on this upcoming period. Just so hard to follow on my phone. Not to mention I am busy donating to the casino. :) but from what I am seeing I will be coming back to a lights out period of time. Not to mention my Jan 20 to 22 period of time looks like a lot of fun. Hope everyone is enjoying the snow they are getting now. Have a good feeling it's nothing more than just a small appetizer. 

I will say scrolling on my phone in the morning has been easier. :hurrbear:

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52 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I know this probably belongs in banter but I had to share the visual.  FV3 is out to lunch but I dont ever recall seeing something like these temps modeled....even in fantasy range.  Just indicative of the wild weather on the way..

JjxBPfs.png

Mother of All Jesus and God combined! I am all in. 

When was the last time a model showed such extreme cold for our region being -20 F to -30 F

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0z eps doesn't give much clarity in the spread but scrolling through the members is pretty wild with all the extreme solutions. Mixed events are the majority but some eye popping hits in there. A good number drop a couple inches on the 18th so that's our jext event to figure out. Beyond that things get pretty wild. I'm hoping for a glacial outcome. Snowpack with staying power and deep cold.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

0z eps doesn't give much clarity in the spread but scrolling through the members is pretty wild with all the extreme solutions. Mixed events are the majority but some eye popping hits in there. A good number drop a couple inches on the 18th so that's our jext event to figure out. Beyond that things get pretty wild. I'm hoping for a glacial outcome. Snowpack with staying power and deep cold.

Definitely a trend to throw us another small event on Friday in the overnight runs.  Fun times ahead!

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9 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Yeah.  Rainstorms in the middle of prime climo during an epic pattern would be hugely disappointing.  Have to think one of those storms hits us though.  

Pattern is still progressing. Until the ridge centers over Greenland we will be vulnerable to a cutter.  That looks to happen around Jan 25. Before then it’s epo pna driven and storms can go west but it’s not a bad look and we likely would get something in the period given all the waves and cold around. But if you are looking for epic pattern that looks to be later...towards February 

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Just now, ECsnowflake said:

I have two flights coming up- one on Jan 20th and one on Jan 25th. The one on the 20th is the get to a cruise that leaves the 21st. Ack! I am worried about getting out.. should I be? 

I've got a flight for a cruise on the 26th.  I know those insanely low temps won't verify, but I certainly wouldn't be thrilled to have an empty house all week w/such low temps

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25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pattern is still progressing. Until the ridge centers over Greenland we will be vulnerable to a cutter.  That looks to happen around Jan 25. Before then it’s epo pna driven and storms can go west but it’s not a bad look and we likely would get something in the period given all the waves and cold around. But if you are looking for epic pattern that looks to be later...towards February 

Speaking of epic...both 0z and 06 gefs with an impressive look. Surprised not to see much of a suppression look on the ind gefs.... Other than relentless arctic cold what would your thoughts be on a look like this?

tzvbULu.png  

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40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pattern is still progressing. Until the ridge centers over Greenland we will be vulnerable to a cutter.  That looks to happen around Jan 25. Before then it’s epo pna driven and storms can go west but it’s not a bad look and we likely would get something in the period given all the waves and cold around. But if you are looking for epic pattern that looks to be later...towards February 

So postpone the BECS party until February? 

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31 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Speaking of epic...both 0z and 06 gefs with an impressive look. Surprised not to see much of a suppression look on the ind gefs.... Other than relentless arctic cold what would your thoughts be on a look like this?

tzvbULu.png  

That’s a cold and stormy look. In that particular case we might need that little bit of war to keep storms from being squashed. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Pattern is still progressing. Until the ridge centers over Greenland we will be vulnerable to a cutter.  That looks to happen around Jan 25. Before then it’s epo pna driven and storms can go west but it’s not a bad look and we likely would get something in the period given all the waves and cold around. But if you are looking for epic pattern that looks to be later...towards February 

Thanks.  Amazing to think that we are just getting started.  

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