BristowWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Yeah. Rainstorms in the middle of prime climo during an epic pattern would be hugely disappointing. Have to think one of those storms hits us though. Learned from this event the models don’t have a clue 8 days out. Not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: big model fail tonight...fv3, gfs and GGEM all rain. We lost 40 inches from the FV3 in 2 runs! No it's not a model "fail"...for crying out loud...And remember when I said a few hours ago that it wasn't a good idea to pin your expectations on that one? It may be better to look past it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Learned from this event the models don’t have a clue 8 days out. Not too worried. I would set expectations low until we see more consistency towards a snowier solution...and just enjoy the snow we are already getting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 If someome asked me to draw the best winter wx pattern i could think of for my yard, i would draw this panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If someome asked me to draw the best winter wx pattern i could think of for my yard, i would draw this panel Bob, might be a noobie question but, shouldn’t we want lower heights in the 50/50 region as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 PV here. This does look like a pattern that would end soon for a warmer February.. El Nino and Stratosphere warming effects say otherwise. -NAO over Greenland has been really hard believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Bob, might be a noobie question but, shouldn’t we want lower heights in the 50/50 region as well? Yea, that would ice it but this panel is a blend of storm chances and also a significant cold outbreak. 09-10 didn't have big cold. If the gefs and eps are right, the arctic is about to pay a visit. If we have 2' on the ground it would be epic beyond words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If someome asked me to draw the best winter wx pattern i could think of for my yard, i would draw this panel Yeah, this -AO has been a trend in the last few runs. I wonder if this is because the Atlantic Hadley Cell has been so amped the last few February. Just my intuition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Bob, might be a noobie question but, shouldn’t we want lower heights in the 50/50 region as well? and positive heights needed over Southeast Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Looks like a big hit incoming on the Euro...162 hours out. Med range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Looks like a big hit incoming on the Euro...162 hours out. Med range Nope... SLP crosses through our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Nope... SLP crosses through our region Nothing to sneeze at... 5-10" front end thump before we flip. Nuisance storm for @Ji tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Nope... SLP crosses through our region Probably dumps snow and a ton of ice first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nothing to sneeze at... 5-10" front end thump before we flip. Nuisance storm for @Ji tho True... just saw 192 850s at +8 and I was like yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, yoda said: True... just saw 192 850s at +8 and I was like yuck Strong shortwave with a 1040hp right on top. Change the timing and placememt a little and its a hecs. The run tonight hits SNE really good. Would get both of our regions. All models have a big storm so i think that part is a lock. How it happens will be figured out later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Euro is a ton of ice like amped said. When we lose the mids, surface is mid-upper 20s. Then cold blasts in after the front clears. Sounds very glacial Eta: temps get below zero northern tier after the glacier is created. Deep winter is an understatement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Strong shortwave with a 1040hp right on top. Change the timing and placememt a little and its a hecs. The run tonight hits SNE really good. Would get both of our regions. All models have a big storm so i think that part is a lock. How it happens will be figured out later this week. This storm is pretty amazing in terms of quantity of snow sleet and ZR it is dumping across the entire country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 If those - 35 degree 850mb temps are accurate in se Canada I have a feeling we are more white than wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I'm not nearly as educated in this as most of you, but I notice a smaller event around Friday. Do you see that as impacting the potential Sunday storm in any way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 If it's the ECM Friday map you looked at, that would just be a weak pulse of milder air with perhaps some light rain turning to wet snow along its trailing front, but it would not be doing much to affect the outcome of the stronger Sunday-Monday event. I am not sold on the milder solution with that track basically across s.e. VA, seems quite possible that a strong low moving along that track would be mostly or all snow for DC and Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Looks like the EURO EPS Control would be a big hit across the region FWIW... individual EPS members have a smattering of massive hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Euro is good snow then massive ice storm. Would be fun as long as no sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Dont know what gfs is doing but fv3 similar to euro though a bit warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Nice overnight euro run, would only take minor adjustments for it to be a an even better hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 FV3 showing that BECS run again: 06z GEFS. There is an increasing signal for a potentially significant snowstorm for around the 20th. MJO no longer wants to go to and stay in phase 5... it is very close to COD and a low amplitude then we go right back into the favorable MJO phases. The SSW damage has already been done and the PV is displaced south. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: FV3 showing that BECS run again: 06z GEFS. There is an increasing signal for a potentially significant snowstorm for around the 20th. MJO no longer wants to go to and stay in phase 5... it is very close to COD and a low amplitude then we go right back into the favorable MJO phases. The SSW damage has already been done and the PV is displaced south. Fun times ahead. FV3 is a massive ice/sleet event for a huge chunk of the big i95 cities. Biggest I think I've ever seen modeled personally. Doubt it plays out verbatim but huge signal popping up across guidance now. Odd setup for an ice storm not the usual CAD. Not impossible tho either. Sleet probably more likely with that look. Either way glacier city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 FV3 showing that BECS run again: 06z GEFS. There is an increasing signal for a potentially significant snowstorm for around the 20th. MJO no longer wants to go to and stay in phase 5... it is very close to COD and a low amplitude then we go right back into the favorable MJO phases. The SSW damage has already been done and the PV is displaced south. Fun times ahead.In Md on that map we would need to subtract today’s snow for all reading this fun times ahead . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 32 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: In Md on that map we would need to subtract today’s snow for all reading this fun times ahead . Most of that is not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I know I'm late to the 6z FV3 party, but that looks like a fun 2 weeks. 1-2" Friday, rain-fzra-sleet bomb-snow over the weekend, MECS the middle of next week, and then subzero high temps at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 As long as my flight out of here on the 26th is unaffected, it can snow as much as it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.