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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

nj2va

By nj2va,
in Mid Atlantic

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Posted
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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

24 hours, 47" max over Dulles. Has to be one of the craziest fantasy maps I've seen for DC.

snku_024h.us_ma.png

40 in DC, 7" in Philly, 4"in NYC 0", in Boston.  Seems legit, lock it up.

The 60 hour fantasy storm the GFS had last December was even better if I remember correctly.

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schinz

schinz

Posted
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14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Anyone of you have an open guest room I can come storm chase to!? Enjoy tonight’s event. 

Ill take the EURO’s southern solution over a NW Rainer trend since those seem to never trend back.

Like Bob said with this setup expect some crazy HECS solutions this week on the models. 

I have a 4 bedroom Summer house in Brigantine 1/2 block from the beach!!!  Empty during the Winter!!

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

The Euro solution for 20-21 Jan as shown looks very similar to 1899 storm and could easily drop 15-30 inches, can't see the 47 verifying though. Must be based on very large ratio assumptions in the Kuchera. 

Of considerable interest, the 23-24 Jan GFS scenario would plunge all of region and southeastern US into frigid arctic air with -20 wind chills and single digit temperatures. Only 1-3 inch snowfall potential as this approaches (as depicted) but on top of the earlier dump (GFS good for 8-12 on the 21st IMO) blowing snow in 50-60 mph westerly winds. Other models cut off just before this event but show little signs of going that extreme, still, it is a robust signal for 12 days. 

A third energy peak appears at end of the run also dropping southeast with renewed outbreak of frigid air. Second half of Jan temp anomalies could be stupendous (-10 to -15). 

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frd

frd

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Quick note -  the 2 F. meter temps on the today's Euro for JAN 21 ARE NEAR to BELOW ZERO around  DC.  and - 28 F in upstate NY. 

Below zero continues all the way to West Central VA. 

I imagine the orientation of the extreme cold is associated with some of the deepest snow cover, not sure though.    

 

Side note -  this recent post from David at 33andrain talks about the potential for late Jan and Feb., and the status and anticipation of the SSWE as it relates to the sensible weather across the pond and here. A good read. 

 

<<

We have been studying the stratosphere and the troposphere and looking at all the key teleconnections throughout the year especially during the fall and the run in to winter. The stratosphere looked like delivering an SSW this winter and these signs grew stronger from late November with possible triggering of a major event from late December into early January.  As we know this actually happened with a displaced SPV (stratospheric polar vortex) between Xmas and the New Year and just a few days later with a fully split SPV - in fact a really impressive event indeed.  No two SSWs are alike.  Sometimes the "wind reversals" never reach the surface, sometimes they are delayed and sometimes they propagate down very quickly. Much depends on other factors and the key teleconnections.  This is not the thread to go into any detail but we need to consider the ENSO state (a very weak and still struggling to move into full El Nino conditions - may not get there until the spring now but probably still enough "nino" like conditions overall to be favourable), angular momentum and the torques (were playing ball and likely will again in early-mid Feb) , the MJO (was in favourable phases for high latitude blocking and looks set to quickly return to those phases in early Feb too albeit at weaker amplitude), all this impacts on the critical amount of tropical forcing, the QBO (recently changed to west based - on its own not so favourable) and the solar cycle (getting close to a roughly 11 year minimum = very favourable).  The consensus in our Teleconnections PM group was that we looked set for colder than normal patterns for large parts of this winter even without a major SSW. Indeed Tom's winter forecast picked up on this.  What we have seen for a while was a disconnect between the strat and the trop and some of the favourable tropical forcing "was" initially being somewhat cancelled out by the strat warming (in the build up to the SSW).  This is called acting "destructively".  Things, however, now look like they are really falling into place and we should see some of the key teleconnections and the SSW impacts acting much more "constructively" later this month and even more so in February. 

 

With all this going on, we know that the models really struggle with both sniffing out these major broad scale pattern changes and the timing of any impacts.  Our strat specialists are seeing signs of the "wind reversal" down welling through the troposphere.  It looks like surface impacts will be seen in the high Arctic (close to the pole) within the next 7 to 10 days (again precise timing cannot be certain and there might be several more days delay but there is increasing confidence of this now which is starting to show up in some of the model op runs and certainly a good number of ensemble members are showing this evolution.  The next question is exactly where will the impacts be felt first, how will they develop, how will they spread, how cold will it get and how long will it last?  With split SPVs, surface impacts are usually much more widespread.  The Arctic cold is pushed out towards the middle latitudes,  Much depends on the strat/trop imprint and the tropical forcing processes that I outlined but this is looking like a really strong SSW impact which will be the dominant factor for some weeks.  Sometimes North Am sees the impacts first but more often with splits Eurasia see them first.  The Feb/Mar 2018 SSW impacted Siberia and then the blocking patterns spread westwards through Europe and across the pond reaching you guys about 10 days later.  Then there was a secondary warming with a similar response.  You ended up with repeated cold periods in March and into April. The models are starting to indicate more of an initial impact on our side of the pond with you guys seeing the main changes some days later.  In the interim, both you and western Europe  are likely to see some colder shots anyway.  I'm not going to discuss your winter storm prospects or ours and how much snow any of us will see. Let's just say that there is some wonderful "potential" for the next 6 weeks (or even longer). 

 

Of course there's a small chance that things can still go pear shaped (slightly more likely for me in the far south west of England but less likely  for the eastern UK, much of Europe and of course eastern CONUS) but I would be very surprised if we do not see at least some decent cold spells with snow pretty likely. We are in the middle of a truly fascinating transition with so much to look forward to.  Let's all be patient and watch the evolution from now on and particularly during the latter part of January onwards.

 

David :) 

>>

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted

EPS with the shotgun effect next weekend.  Actually, I would rather keep this this amped and ride the line for the next few days....cant deny the trend this year is to push systems slowly south and we have to will them back north.  Would prefer to keep some breathing room....

2lKPaex.png

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