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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

What is the date stamp for week 4?  Is that Feb?

I'd actually rather not talk about the weeklies right now (turns head and pukes).  Cant help but say it....JI may end up right.  How many great 2-3 week looks have been touted... 

Reading PSU's assertion that sometimes the tellies/indies dont really have the final say obviously has merit, but I scratch my skull at how much infulence the PAC has over other forcing mechanisms.

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Just my $.02 but from my reading and research lately there are SSWEs going on in tandem at both poles. This is apparently a rather rare event. Couple that with the near-record SSW SD event in our hemisphere and imho this is like a powder keg with a lit fuse. We are entering unchartered atmospheric conditions and to me it is clear why the models are struggling this severely and showing some rather unique and odd looks. Something is going to give over the next 2-3 weeks because I dont think anyone knows what to expect from these happenings at both poles and how they will effect this patterns globally. I think there is a 50/50 chance we either head into a highly anomalous pattern in the East which favors a 'cancel winter' type pattern OR something very wintry that we are all going to look back on and use as a measuring stick for future seasons. I just have a hunch things are going to bust wide open in a big way and it is really going to be worth the wait. Like I said tho its damn near impossible to say which way but some highly anomalous weather is coming to the US in a few weeks with wild swings and a tight gradient/boundary. I am holding out hope and I normally would have tossed the towel in by now. Heck even my winter outlook argues for much BN snowfall but somewhere in the East is going to pay for this run we r having....the atmosphere plays a balancing act it always has and always will and no I'm not referencing 'atmospheric memory' either lol.

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Just now, pasnownut said:

I'd actually rather not talk about the weeklies right now (turns head and pukes).  Cant help but say it....JI may end up right.  How many great 2-3 week looks have been touted... 

Reading PSU's assertion that sometimes the tellies/indies dont really have the final say obviously has merit, but I scratch my skull at how much infulence the PAC has over other forcing mechanisms.

Hope although not a plan is all we have right now.  The winter is far too young at this point to write it off on Dec 31st.  We could see some massive turnaround just past mid month.  

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Wonder how far we can kick the can? 

Honestly, Feb into March should be our best period for snow chances, esp given the late start to this  Nino. Yes, as of today, ENSO is still offically Neutral.

I'm keeping it simple and just tracking the Pac. Until a stable +pna or -epo gets going we're going to remain in a shutout. 

Im not doubting that a flip to epic can happen. But it cant even get started until the pac jet lays off a direct shot into western north america. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm keeping it simple and just tracking the Pac. Until a stable +pna or -epo gets going we're going to remain in a shutout. 

Im not doubting that a flip to epic can happen. But it cant even get started until the pac jet lays off a direct shot into western north america. 

Yeah, we need a Nino instead of a Nina.

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15 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah I know, kind of like mentioning a certain storm in Dec 2010. :lol:  But at least we all know what happened in Jan 2016 of that winter! 

Actually I'm from the SE forum.  My group seems to have gone into hibernation after our snow so I have to come here for actual analysis.

Jan 16 was just rain for us.,:weep:

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15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It gave some hope at the end.  All is not lost.  

I know it reemerged at the end of run but was nice to see the ridge N of Hawaii weaken substantially in the mid range which to me is more important than a 384 hr prog.  Start hammering that PAC pattern little by little. Still plenty of time its not even Jan 1 technically. 

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