Amped Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The 50/50 low is not in the right spot for this event and there is an area of +height anomalies off the Mid Atlantic and New England Coast that will not be easy to work around. A rain to snow event kind of like the GFS is showing might be favored in that kind of pattern. It looks similar to 2013-2014 where we got a number of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 00z EURO looks like another bomb Day 7-9...cold presses in just in time. Still close to a cutter solution if timing is off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Day 8-10 shows up with a pretty large snowstorm... pretty nice to look at. Nice HP in position as the SLP goes by... subtract 4-6" from this and you get the snowstorm total of Day 8-10... it is also 15-25 degrees with the snow falling across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Wow at the Euro again. About 2’ for DC. As I said earlier today the big ones are sniffed early. Maybe this is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Wow at the Euro again. About 2’ for DC. As I said earlier today the big ones are sniffed early. Maybe this is one of them. Don't forget to subtract 4-6 for today's storm ;)... still 16" or so is very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Don't forget to subtract 4-6 for today's storm ;)... still 16" or so is very nice It’s semantics. SV has DC 10 day snowfall at 27” so I was going off that. Regardless, it’s a great OP run. Just one of many solutions that will be offered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 If that cold pool over eastern Canada is as deep and widespread as ECM advertises, then the jet will respond with a deep trough as shown on the day 8 panel, with any luck that low will follow a good track and bring a huge snowfall. The GFS has some wild and wacky looking looping lows out in the Atlantic at a similar time frame, not seeing quite how that shape of troughing would respond to the large-scale pattern, but GEM on the other hand just blindly produces a cutter for no obvious reason. This may be the first of three or four big storms after the impending medium sized event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: If that cold pool over eastern Canada is as deep and widespread as ECM advertises, then the jet will respond with a deep trough as shown on the day 8 panel, with any luck that low will follow a good track and bring a huge snowfall. The GFS has some wild and wacky looking looping lows out in the Atlantic at a similar time frame, not seeing quite how that shape of troughing would respond to the large-scale pattern, but GEM on the other hand just blindly produces a cutter for no obvious reason. This may be the first of three or four big storms after the impending medium sized event. Seriously?? Wow...could be fun tracking ahead!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Decent look...I though eps trended better but still too warm for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: Decent look...I though eps trended better but still too warm for my liking Don't really want +height anomalies over the Maritimes, but the TPV is a wildcard with this potential event, and there is time for adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS nukes northern Maine. I’ve never seen so much white on a snow map outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: GFS nukes northern Maine. I’ve never seen so much white on a snow map outside the mountains. So...congrats, Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, mattie g said: So...congrats, Maine? I know it’s Maine, but still the totals on that run are astonishing. We just need to somehow bring that 48”+ zone down to MD and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Not a bad look at this range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Actually a decent look. I would take my chances with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 59 minutes ago, Fozz said: GFS nukes northern Maine. I’ve never seen so much white on a snow map outside the mountains. I'm in Portland Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Hey guys, the NAM moved the HECS up to tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Icon has a 1045 high near Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Icon has a 1045 high near Michigan The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. Yes I too have learned my lesson with living and dying by op runs or even ensemble runs a week or more out. This event today look like a strong cold front with rain 10 days ago. we have come a long way since then. Even two days ago this event was looking like 1-3/2-4..still may be but thinking it will beat that estimate at the 11th hour!. Only going to look at the strategic view meaning h5 for North America. Even that can be deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Cmc has shifted way south and east for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. Yea that's my take too. The pattern the next 10 days is dependent on the tpv location and where the boundary sets up. Rain is a risk for any system that amps up to our west if that tpv isn't pressing enough. But it can work and its active looking. After that as the atl ridge retrogrades into a more classic west based block we should see a more typical snow vs no type setup ala 2010. But if we can score a couple times before then and then get that type of pattern in Feb...!!! That's how we can make a run at the kind of winter that might even make the "I need snow in December" crew happy. ...Naw who am I kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I hate the GFS. Why cant it play along. That being said, this storm today was supposed to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Yea that's my take too. The pattern the next 10 days is dependent on the tpv location and where the boundary sets up. Rain is a risk for any system that amps up to our west if that tpv isn't pressing enough. But it can work and its active looking. After that as the atl ridge retrogrades into a more classic west based block we should see a more typical snow vs no type setup ala 2010. But if we can score a couple times before then and then get that type of pattern in Feb...!!! That's how we can make a run at the kind of winter that might even make the "I need snow in December" crew happy. ...Naw who am I kidding 12z gfs....not sure how to say it but it brings alot of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I hate the GFS. Why cant it play along. That being said, this storm today was supposed to be rain.Its being replaced for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hate the GFS. Why cant it play along. That being said, this storm today was supposed to be rain. Its being replaced for a reason question is, is it's replacement better or worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The whole setup late next week reminds me very much of jan/feb 2014. WARs usually screw us until the run we had in 14-15. Does the tpv do it again for us? I'm not making any guesses a week out. Now this "TPV" (what is that, btw?)...is that a bigger piece of the equation where we'll know what it's gonna do by like Tuesday or Wednesday? Or is it a feature that can't be nailed down until we get even closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 question is, is it's replacement better or worse?Most if the good models look more like fv3 than gfs for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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