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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well...models always sniff out the big ones at long leads...man...the Euro is ridiculous

It's straight out of the Jan/Feb 2010 playbook. Nice cold event followed up by a destruction 5-6 days later. 

I think a big storm is in the cards. Overwhelming support from ops and ens that a big storm is going to form. Of course equal odds with rain/snow in our area but it's really fun seeing monster storms like this during a nino w/ blocking. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's straight out of the Jan/Feb 2010 playbook. Nice cold event followed up by a destruction 5-6 days later. 

I think a big storm is in the cards. Overwhelming support from ops and ens that a big storm is going to form. Of course equal odds with rain/snow in our area but it's really fun seeing monster storms like this during a nino w/ blocking. 

To think this could happen and there are MORE storms after this on the way is OMG !! 

Mail boxes will dissapear and small animals.  

Seriously though,  you have to think there is a decent chance we go sub zero sometime in the next few weeks too. Too many storms , too much arctic air. 

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4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This event will likely come down to if we can get the northern branch shortwave/ULL out ahead of the main shortwave. Get the HP to build in behind it. This would easily cut if the timing is off. I do think this is the best shot at the “big one” this winter. 

I think we will have multiple chances at the "big one" over the next 4-6 weeks...not saying we score each time but the advertised pattern rivals 09/10 for the mid atlantic. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I think we will have multiple chances at the "big one" over the next 4-6 weeks...not saying we score each time but the advertised pattern rivals 09/10 for the mid atlantic. 

Yeah not sure how one can say this looks like our best shot at the big one. On paper it actually doesn't. That doesn't matter though because we have gone from complete shutout to a transitioning pattern that seems to want to snow now. And it's still in its infancy.

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The ECM shift to a southern track is plausible, and the GFS concept of chain of lows along a front fails to separate the 19th and 21st energy peaks from my research point of view, so if I blend a better separated GFS with this ECM track, I think you are in the hunt for the jackpot that seems inevitable with the 21st energy peak. More chance of it shifting back north than any further south, it is a finely tuned sports car low that the ECM advertises, and 15-30" certainly in its specs, would toss the 40" though, this is not 1888 and western CT. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Reality check on the EPS. Majority are all or mostly rain for d8-10. Not surprising and definitely enough medium to large big hits to keep it very interesting. 

Seems like it's gonna be harder to get a big one before the pattern really gets going, isn't it? Seems like it's safe to assume cutter unless we see more frozen outcomes depicted by Monday or something...but I guess I'll keep one eye on it, lol

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