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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

nj2va

By nj2va,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, weeklies have been terrible with week 3. Hasnt got it right in weeks. Weeks 4-7 are useless if week 3 is wrong. I really dgas what they show tonight. Until we break out of the pac assault we're screwed no matter what any model says.

Oh I agree. You and I know that. But there are surely some who are looking for a glimmer of  hope. They likely wont find it in the upcoming edition of the weeklies. I was just issuing a bit of a warning, lol.

In the back of my mind I have had a suspicion all along that we would not see a classic Nino-like tropospheric response until very late in winter. The ongoing (warm phase) MJO pulse and the SW stuff have perhaps contributed to inhibiting that further, but are not the sole cause IMO. This Nino is late developing, and seems to be a bit ill-defined.

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted

I would argue that the GEPS moved toward the GEFS in the LR and is a better run than the 0z .....much closer to the GEFS than the EPS.  Maybe I'm looking at things wrong?  It's handling of the ridge north of HI is almost identical to the GEFS and opposite the EPS.  Several other improvements as well.  Seems like the gap widened between the EPS and GEFS today...Something has to give in the next 24 hours....we should at least have a hint as to which model has the best idea. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Remember back around Christmas when we thought the pac would flip first week of Jan?

This was 10 day leads and not uber long range.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_43.png

 

This is what we are being rewarded with in real time:

 

gfs_z500a_nhem_16.png

 

It's crystal clear the pac is ruining winter for the east coast in general. Im optimistic by nature but I'm also honest about what I'm seeing. Its entirely possible that the pac never gets good in time for us to salvage whats left of winter. It takes at least a week if not 2 to recover from a north american pac flood. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I would argue that the GEPS moved toward the GEFS in the LR and is a better run than the 0z .....much closer to the GEFS than the EPS.  Maybe I'm looking at things wrong?  It's handling of the ridge north of HI is almost identical to the GEFS and opposite the EPS.  Several other improvements as well.  Seems like the gap widened between the EPS and GEFS today...Something has to give in the next 24 hours....we should at least have a hint as to which model has the best idea. 

I made a mistake. I was looking at 0z. 12z is better. Still warm but not far from more seasonal wx. We're going to have to grit our teeth until a flip to a better Pac is inside of 10 days. All ens guidance has been rushing (or totally mishandling) any meaningful change. 12z eps went all the way back to square 1. That was a bitter pill but also too far out in time to worry about. Unfortunately the GEFS has been terrible d10-15. A lot of false hope because every flip in the Pac over the last 2 weeks has been wrong so far. 

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Snowstorm5921

Snowstorm5921

Posted
Posted
Just now, Snowstorm5921 said:

Just popping in.  I’m looking at the 18z GFS thus far and it’s definitely moving towards the Euro.  Not what we wanted to see.  I think January, and most likely winter, is toast.  Pretty remarkable after nearly unanimous cold and snowy forecasts!

 

happy new year all!

Trough after trough after trough digging in the west.  As Bob said, the pac is absolutely destroying this winter.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. Weather can just be weather regardless of all indices and teles. The pac appears to be crapping the bed for a month straight. Its entirely possible that it continues much longer. We've wasted entire winters due to persistence before. Things could easily still flip but it has the persistence feel right now. The last time the eps spit out the same pattern it did today it ended up being right. Seeing a carbon copy of how we just lost the last 2 weeks is unnerving. 

Persistence is a real thing but some on here use it and think of it the wrong way. Persistence within a pattern is real.  And at range the guidance will often underestimate or lose the influence driving the pattern and so show something not consistent with the pattern. That's why I've not taken any of these "threats" that pop up for a run or two seriously. Until we actually see the pattern change I think it's clear this is a total shutout look and any organized system will cut way west of us. The trough alignment in the Pacific is determining that. 

But patterns change. No winter...none...has one pattern all the way through. No season does. Now sometimes one pattern will align itself and last through a good chunk of a season. And sometimes two different patterns can be similar in the sensible weather. So that can give the impression of one pattern. But I've never seen one pattern lock in and run the table. Never.  Even the warmest years there was variance. 2002 had blocking early but there was no cold on our side of the hemisphere. That could have worked in January. But then the blocking pattern broke and an awful Pacific driven one developed. Two different patterns same result. No snow. It's the same in best years. 2002/3 had blocking early then later was driven by the epo/pna. Different ways to the same result snow. 2009/10 repeated a similar pattern in December and February but with a month of a crap pattern in between. 

We have also had plenty enough examples where the initial pattern was pretty bad then a colder and or snowier one set in.  1914, 1934, 1937, 1958, 1960 1963, 1969, 1978, 1987, 1993, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2015.  I'm probably missing a few others. So it's not good to start like this (there are also plenty of years that start bad and stay bad) but it's not a death sentence either. Persistence would have failed all those years. 

In one regard it's good this pattern set in around Dec 12-15. That makes it unlikely to ruin the whole winter. Last year the crap Pacific pattern took hold around Jan 10 and destroyed the whole core of our winter only breaking down around March 1. Even if this pattern has legs I think we will sneak in another one sometime before our snow climo runs out. But obviously if we want a good snow season we need it to be sooner rather than later. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but we can't be 100% sure the mjo is all of the problem or that the gefs is correct. I believe the gefs is more right...but I won't feel great about it until the euro gets on board and it starts moving closer in time. 

On the other hand it's also possible the euro is right but that look is only temporary. As awful as it looks if the trough in the west splits off from the Pacific trough and cuts under and east and the AO continues to drop as it's starting too it could only be a week away from a better look and that would still only be about Jan 21. But there are a lot of ifs in there. 

It truly has been a rather "unique" time with long range guidance.  To the point that I not only understand the unraveling of many, and I'm trying to view from afar until i see a better consensus.  The flips we are seeing is really unnerving, but my gut says something that we are not used to seeing is wreaking havoc w/ LR guidance.  I do feel that in the next couple days, we should start to stabilize and have a little more model continuity.  Just doesn't make sense that all signs we've been seeing would go poof.  Other consideration is that IF it is SSW related, just because the daughters split, it doesn't necessarily mean they split in a fashion that is a favorable on for our area.  Thats just a hunch though.  Guess that too will be determined in the next few days.

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