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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

nj2va

By nj2va,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And 2009-2010 has some mild days.....but how would you characterize the winter?

The focus of 1977 was SNE.

1964 was moderate, so that is irrelevent.

1980 was pretty iffy, as it was only recently reclassified an el nino, but fine....I defer on 1954, too since I don't care to research it. That may have been an east-based event, similar to 2006-07, though.

No absolutes, but sne is strongly favored in weak el nino.

 

Seasonally you're right.  But I thought the debate was about that write up referencing a specific period and threat and my only point was that while over the course of a season New England is favored, but there have been enough individual events within weak nino years that each threat cannot be assumed to favor north.  If the argument was over the whole season then I have no dispute. 

I do wonder though...there are so few modoki ninos, if there is too small a sample to really know.  Weak/Moderate are just lines we drew in the sand...but one thing is evident the truly very weak borderline on neutral years were bad in the mid atlantic.  This year...assuming the atmosphere couples with the SST shouldn't be that weak.  Its a stronger weak close to moderate but not quite there.  Those years in that range were typically good for both the mid atl and northeast.  Either way they favor New England overall but I am tentative to draw too many conclusions from a sample size that small. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Seasonally you're right.  But I thought the debate was about that write up referencing a specific period and threat and my only point was that while over the course of a season New England is favored, but there have been enough individual events within weak nino years that each threat cannot be assumed to favor north.  If the argument was over the whole season then I have no dispute. 

I do wonder though...there are so few modoki ninos, if there is too small a sample to really know.  Weak/Moderate are just lines we drew in the sand...but one thing is evident the truly very weak borderline on neutral years were bad in the mid atlantic.  This year...assuming the atmosphere couples with the SST shouldn't be that weak.  Its a stronger weak close to moderate but not quite there.  Those years in that range were typically good for both the mid atl and northeast.  Either way they favor New England overall but I am tentative to draw too many conclusions from a sample size that small. 

Yes, there can always be individual exceptions....we already saw one this season. Like I said, deep neg NAO/big PNA flex couplet, and/or the right n stream interference....ie PV lobe, or confluence. But that one specific period referenced is the heart of the season...which makes it "seasonally". 

The sample size is an issue with everything TBH...nothing we can do.

This season is a lot like 1969, as mentioned earlier....that season was borderline moderate per ONI, however the MEI was meager, like this season....very similar values, actually.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, there can always be individual exceptions....we already saw one this season. Like I said, deep neg NAO/big PNA flex couplet, and/or the right n stream interference....ie PV lobe, or confluence. But that one specific period referenced is the heart of the season...which makes it "seasonally". 

The sample size is an issue with everything TBH...nothing we can do.

This season is a lot like 1969, as mentioned earlier....that season was borderline moderate per ONI, however the MEI was meager, like this season....very similar values, actually.

I wish the climate composites were available but if I remember 1969 had a great atlantic but an awful pacific pattern.  Hopefully with more PNA/EPO ridge the results would be better regardless of nino status. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, there can always be individual exceptions....we already saw one this season. Like I said, deep neg NAO/big PNA flex couplet, and/or the right n stream interference....ie PV lobe, or confluence. But that one specific period referenced is the heart of the season...which makes it "seasonally". 

The sample size is an issue with everything TBH...nothing we can do.

This season is a lot like 1969, as mentioned earlier....that season was borderline moderate per ONI, however the MEI was meager, like this season....very similar values, actually.

I also think there was some bad luck in 69.  There were a couple coastal storms that year that just didn't come together perfectly...a lot of mixing in the cities down here, and one where even though it was actually a miller a that came all the way up the coast it didnt really bomb out and get its act together until further north.  There were so many "close to a big storm" events that just didnt get it done here and so it ended up a mediocre year but I am not sure it couldn't have been a lot better with some luck. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wish the climate composites were available but if I remember 1969 had a great atlantic but an awful pacific pattern.  Hopefully with more PNA/EPO ridge the results would be better regardless of nino status. 

Agreed, but the NAO is most likely not going to be as favorable, either.

I have always liked a tamer 1969 with less NAO and more PNA for this year.

But when the MEI data is available....all of the paltry MEI seasons were more SNE centric....its uncanny. 1969, 1978, 2005, 2015...all included.

There are always breaks any given way in each season, but its the seasonal nuances that often make or break them.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I also think there was some bad luck in 69.  There were a couple coastal storms that year that just didn't come together perfectly...a lot of mixing in the cities down here, and one where even though it was actually a miller a that came all the way up the coast it didnt really bomb out and get its act together until further north.  There were so many "close to a big storm" events that just didnt get it done here and so it ended up a mediocre year but I am not sure it couldn't have been a lot better with some luck. 

We had plenty of bad luck in 2010, but that is the risk with a more potent STJ with stronger nino and extreme NAO. Sure, it could work out here, but weaker el nino and more moderate blocking would have been the higher percentage play here.

Some of the systems in seasons like this phase later due to more n stream reliance...1969 was one.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not as picky about my snow...but just an FYI the January 2005 storm dropped about 3-6" across most of this forum depending on location and 90% of the people in here consider that storm a total disaster and hate it because just northeast of here got 1-2 feet.  Same in 2015 BEFORE the pattern shifted south in mid February...during that run of storms that were slamming New England with 12" plus and this area was getting 1-3 and 2-4" storms you would have thought we were having the worst winter ever.  No one in here was satisfied with their 3" when NYC to BOS was getting 20".  So when you say "it will be plowable" just a warning if DC gets like 8"+ most are usually satisfied and "OK" even if other places get more...but if New England is getting 20" and DC is getting 3-4" most in here will be in a total meltdown temper tantrum of rage.  I am not saying DC needs to be the bullseye like in 2010 for most here to be happy but it can't be a BIG disparity or else they will feel ripped off and disappointed even if they end up slightly above average on snow.  So I am not sure exactly what you mean...but just letting you some here have a pretty high bar for this winter to be satisfied and if Boston ends up with 70" and this region in general ends up with like 25 they will not be happy even if that is slightly above average.

ETA:  I had not read the thread the last hour and see things may have got a little testy...I am not trying to jump into any fight, I was just letting you know what the mindset and bar is for general snowfall satisfaction around here...

I wouldn’t call the January 05 storm a disaster.... a better word is disappointment. Still a decent storm with 6”, but the dry slot ended it much earlier than I hoped, not to mention Philly to Maine doing a whole lot better.

I agree with the rest of your post though. When there’s a huge disparity between here and 40N, the mood gets nasty here.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You guys will get less, but should at least be plowable.....we'll see.

Was just pulling your chain a little. :D When it comes to Miller B's for this region we are typically the hounds underneath the dinner table hoping that the weather Gods throw us some scraps. I will leave it at that as that horse has been beaten to death as I see others have chimed in. 

Now you northeners typically can score big on a Miller B or 3 on any given year but I am just not so sure this will be one of those years. But then again I can see this being a big year as well. Just too many unknowns at this time IMO most of which are centered on what we see in regards to the SSW/Split and its impacts on the trop pv. At this time I an starting to believe we see a very volatile period late Jan into Feb with extremes across the board for the N Hemi. because of this SSW/Split. Now at this time it is mostly guesswork on how this will play out.

But I do think one thing is coming into focus somewhat. And that is I believe the models are suggesting and/or moving towards is a major displacement south of a piece of the pv into Canada. Just a gut feeling but I believe this might be of a long duration nature to boot. If that is the case you are pretty much riding on the mercies of the Snow Gods on where they place that feature. If that gets planted over top of you then it may be time to take up another hobby for awhile besides snow chasing. Hell, we could even be looking at issues down here in the Mid-Atlantic with suppression in that scenario if that feature comes too far south. Though if we continue to see an active southern stream and bouts of SE ridging that could offset the impacts down here and actually put us in favorable setup as the boundary focuses through our region. Think the best placement for all concerned (mid-Atlantic/NE) is to see the pv planted to the west of our longitude over top the lakes. Depending on exact placement that could put us all into a very favorable setup. Of course we could also see the pv shoved towards the 50/50 region as well which has its possibilities but headaches as well. 

This is placement will be pretty much predicated on how we see the height builds (which I strongly believe we see) over the pole occur. And this will probably come down to the interplay of the EPO/PNA ridge and the -NAO/or lack of -NAO. If we see these height builds originating mostly from a strong EPO/PNA with a weak -NAO to offset it then you and possibly us are SOL as that will probably force the pv generally over top of us. Of course if the height builds over the pole is all EPO/PNA driven we more then likely see the pv shoved towards southern Greenland. Best case scenario in my mind is seeing a strong and/or west based -NAO working in tandem with the EPO/PNA which should slot the pv's southward intrusion into a favorable locale for both of us.

There are other thoughts I have as well but I have already been long winded enough. Just know that I feel that no one really has a clue on how our sensible weather will play out for the duration of the winter. They can make educated guesses, but that is all they are, guesses.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

EPS is still pretty much moving along in the long range. Slight differences here and there but overall the look is roughly the same and has slightly improved IMO. 

Seeing a slightly weaker EPO/PNA ridge but actually a stronger +PNA clocking in. Overall the look there has improved a touch. Stronger ridginging into Greenland and subsequently a slightly farther south solution on the pv. All in all, I think we have seen improvements on the overall look.

 

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

EPS is still pretty much moving along in the long range. Slight differences here and there but overall the look is roughly the same and has slightly improved IMO. 

Seeing a slightly weaker EPO/PNA ridge but actually a stronger +PNA clocking in. Overall the look there has improved a touch. Stronger ridginging into Greenland and subsequently a slightly farther south solution on the pv. All in all, I think we have seen improvements on the overall look.

 

You know as well as I do someone will log on this morning and point out the red flags

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Though the Jan 13th time frame can't be dismissed as of yet the EPS did move away from the potential somewhat with a more progressive and OTS track. Wouldn't dismiss anything at this time but I am not overly high on the potential until the tail end of the extended. Roughly the 17th through 20th looks stormy though I think our chances lie later in that window. Actual somewhat like the look around the 20 th. Well, like it as much as you can any 15 day model output.  We have what looks to be an initial low (around the 17th) pulling into the 50/50 after it has already pulled the boundary south of our region. The stage has then been set for what looks to be a follow up low tracking from our west along the boundary. Look has potentiality, but again 15 days out.

Would love to fly back in from Vegas on the 19th and then have to start shoveling snow before i have even had a chance to unpack. :)

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Are we taking bets? I know I have my odds on favorites. :lol:

Haha...I mean if the flags are there but dang two days ago it was just one big flag...my brain says we will now have a period of model bouncing before it settles into whatever it is that comes. Sure it's possible the abrupt flip will hold until reality but do we really believe there wont be some back and forth in the in between period?

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You know as well as I do someone will log on this morning and point out the red flags

What's funny is I wasn't even going to comment on the EPS this morning. Everything looked fine as we were just chugging along towards the shift. But then I thought about it. About the lack of comments on the overnight EPS. And I figured that would be a red flag and trigger some to melt down and trash the boards. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Haha...I mean if the flags are there but dang two days ago it was just one big flag...my brain says we will now have a period of model bouncing before it settles into whatever it is that comes. Sure it's possible the abrupt flip will hold until reality but do we really believe there wont be some back and forth in the in between period?

Never really had an issue with those that brought up concerns. To me that was just part of discussing the models. My issues have been with the ones that so obsess over something from the long range that you just know they are giving themselves ulcers and mental break downs. Not to mention that they continually hammer us with this concerns trashing the thread and generally creating a very sour and depressing atmosphere in here. During those times I generally just disappear from this thread. Not worth being drug down to their level of obsession and depression.

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