Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:32 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: Going in the wrong direction. Expand So do all your posts here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:19 PM, mikeg0305 said: This brings back bad memories. My normal 40 min commute home took over 5 hours. 83 north shutdown above Hunt Valley. Lucky for me I had prepared with a full tank of gas, drinks snacks and when i was finished drinking a port-a-potty Expand That storm was quite memorable. Took me 6 hours to go from Frederick to Hagerstown on route 70. Cars abandoned everywhere along the highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:35 PM, Bob Chill said: So do all your posts here Expand On behalf of a fellow Pennsylvanian, I apologize. Thank you for such great analysis. Just don’t get a lot of it in Philly forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:35 PM, Bob Chill said: So do all your posts here Expand You just got 10” of snow. I haven’t seen snow in 2 months. Why so upset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:38 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: You just got 10” of snow. I haven’t seen snow in 2 months. Why so upset? Expand Actually Bob got over 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 There is a reason why we miss out on severe ice storms, and go so long between significant icing events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:38 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: You just got 10” of snow. I haven’t seen snow in 2 months. Why so upset? Expand Why are you so upset? All your posts are negative and take away from great analysis in here. There have been times where we got slammed and DC nothing, let’s be happy for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:38 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: You just got 10” of snow. I haven’t seen snow in 2 months. Why so upset? Expand I'm not upset at all. I'm thrilled with getting just under a foot of snow. That's not the problem though. You're posts are an embarrassment to all of the nice folks that post in the forum that YOU should be posting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I will stop with the banter, my apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:41 PM, BlueDXer75 said: Why are you so upset? All your posts are negative and take away from great analysis in here. There have been times where we got slammed and DC nothing, let’s be happy for them Expand I just don’t understand why posting non-snow analysis is frowned upon. I don’t post with snow goggles on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:42 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: I don’t post with tact or respect for people that live in a different region than me Expand fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:18 PM, psuhoffman said: That one might be even more likely to truly cut. The pna gets temporarily beat down on all guidance and the trough is amplifying unto the central US with the war not yet into NAO territory. That’s a strong cutter signal. The next 2 weeks has potential for some frozen but if your expecting a blitz and snowpack building you are likely going to be frustrated. Once the NAO goes negative then frozen will be favored over rain every threat and given the stj keeps throwing waves at us every few days that should end well. Expand well this is crap man because the great looking weeklies from 2 weeks ago had 3 week and week 4 as epic. The last week of January should of been epic. Not cutters. So now your telling me we have to wait till feb for snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:42 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: I just don’t understand why posting non-snow analysis is frowned upon. I don’t post with snow goggles on Expand You're making us look bad... you'll be on my ignore list soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:42 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: I just don’t understand why posting non-snow analysis is frowned upon. I don’t post with snow goggles on Expand It's not frowned upon IN YOUR OWN FORUM. Another one to the ignore list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Whatever happens this weekend their sure our a lot of possibilities. Rain ZR Snow flash freeze wind. Going to be interesting to watch this unfold and i hate to sound like a weenie but until the the disturbance rolls through Thursday night I’m not sure we can be confident in any track for the weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:43 PM, Ji said: well this is crap man because the great looking weeklies from 2 weeks ago had 3 week and week 4 as epic. The last week of January should of been epic. Not cutters. So now your telling me we have to wait till feb for snow lol Expand Take it easy Snowstorm5921...I mean Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:43 PM, Ji said: well this is crap man because the great looking weeklies from 2 weeks ago had 3 week and week 4 as epic. The last week of January should of been epic. Not cutters. So now your telling me we have to wait till feb for snow lol Expand The weeklies since late Dec have not looked good for the week of the 24th. That's been the transition week and it hasn't moved for multiple runs. At least have the facts straight if you're going to melt over the weeklies ETA: I meant to say epic. The weeklies had the 3rd week of Jan as a non-shutout pattern but not epic. Everything is happening pretty much to the day as advertised since the beginning of Jan. We got out of the shutout pattern FASTER that expected and got up to a foot of snow. lol. You need to take an extra med. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:42 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: I just don’t understand why posting non-snow analysis is frowned upon. I don’t post with snow goggles on Expand When it is all you do...with zero analysis...in drive by fashion...in a forum that technically isn't your home forum...it comes off as trolling...but you know that don't you? Now if you're just a whiny cry baby because you haven't gotten snow yet don't...we already have our own resident here for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:42 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: I just don’t understand why posting non-snow analysis is frowned upon. I don’t post with snow goggles on Expand i think most here are trying to tell you that you are posting in the wrong subforum. you aren't taking the hint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:51 PM, Bob Chill said: The weeklies since late Dec have not looked good for the week of the 24th. That's been the transition week and it hasn't moved for multiple runs. At least have the facts straight if you're going to melt over the weeklies Expand lol okay..i thought this week was the transition week. Jan 15-22. PSU magic Jan 15 date. Ill stay patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:51 PM, Bob Chill said: The weeklies since late Dec have not looked good for the week of the 24th. That's been the transition week and it hasn't moved for multiple runs. At least have the facts straight if you're going to melt over the weeklies Expand He's melting just like his snow that was a pleasant surprise that the weeklies didn't say were going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:21 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: The WAR has been a feature since Sept. I noted it in my winter outlook and didnt like seeing it continually show up right when the nao was supposed to dip. What makes it different now that several people are expecting the WAR seasonal tendency to change on a dime? Expand I don’t agree with your assessment the WAR has been a consistent problem. It’s popped up at times but 90% of the time from November 10 until now the predominant storm track has been under us. A few storms cut but most the problem was lack of cold due to a crap pac not Atlantic. One storm was suppressed. So I don’t see how a west track from a WAR has been a seasonal trend. Second the long range guidance has been doing fairly good with the mean long wave pattern. There were a couple head fakes but mostly they have been ok. So when everything...EVERYTHING (geps,GEFS,eps, Cfs and euro weeklies, uk seasonal, JMA weeklies) everything says the NAO will go negative and those models are supported by the sst analogs, I think I should flip the question and ask you what objective evidence you have to doubt what every piece of evidence is indicating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:53 PM, Ji said: lol okay..i thought this week was the transition week. Jan 15-22. PSU magic Jan 15 date. Ill stay patient Expand We were happy because the shutout pattern ended faster than we thought. Nobody that I know of was expecting a blocked up epic pattern until the last week of the month at the earliest. The thing is, we're probably going to get more snow or frozen precip in the next 2 weeks. Might be hard to get a classic all snow event but we're very much in the middle of a workable pattern that can produce. And it probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:57 PM, Bob Chill said: We were happy because the shutout pattern ended faster than we thought. Nobody that I know of was expecting a blocked up epic pattern until the last week of the month at the earliest. The thing is, we're probably going to get more snow or frozei jn precip in the next 2 weeks. Might be hard to get a classic all snow event but we're very much in the middle of a workable pattern that can produce. And it probably will. Expand it seems like when the weeklies come out---week 3 is always epic......but now, we are still 3 weeks away from the epic...you know what i am saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:57 PM, psuhoffman said: I don’t agree with your assessment the WAR has been a consistent problem. It’s popped up at times but 90% of the time from November 10 until now the predominant storm track has been under us. A few storms cut but most the problem was lack of cold due to a crap pac not Atlantic. One storm was suppressed. So I don’t see how a west track from a WAR has been a seasonal trend. Second the long range guidance has been doing fairly good with the mean long wave pattern. There were a couple head fakes but mostly they have been ok. So when everything...EVERYTHING (geps,GEFS,eps, Cfs and euro weeklies, uk seasonal, JMA weeklies) everything says the NAO will go negative and those models are supported by the sst analogs, I think I should flip the question and ask you what objective evidence you have to doubt what every piece of evidence is indicating? Expand He called for lots of WAR in his winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:57 PM, Bob Chill said: We were happy because the shutout pattern ended faster than we though. Nobody that I know of was expecting a blocked up epic pattern until the last week of the month at the earliest. The thing is, we're probably going to get more snow or frozen precip in the next 2 weeks. Might be hard to get a classic all snow event but we're very much in the middle of a workable pattern that can produce. And it probably will. Expand I can't remember if it was you or PSU but whoever it was nailed the call that once we get the PAC to turn, we'd at least be in the game (aka shutout pattern is over). Once the blocking settles in, the KU potential increases tenfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:59 PM, Ji said: it seems like when the weeklies come out---week 3 is always epic......but now, we are still 3 weeks away from the epic...you know what i am saying... Expand Is this 3 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:57 PM, Bob Chill said: We were happy because the shutout pattern ended faster than we though. Nobody that I know of was expecting a blocked up epic pattern until the last week of the month at the earliest. The thing is, we're probably going to get more snow or frozen precip in the next 2 weeks. Might be hard to get a classic all snow event but we're very much in the middle of a workable pattern that can produce. And it probably will. Expand I can only imagine how your response would have been if you hadn't just received 11"....it's easier to babysit with a white landscape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:59 PM, Ji said: it seems like when the weeklies come out---week 3 is always epic......but now, we are still 3 weeks away from the epic...you know what i am saying... Expand I really don't. I think we've been looking at different weeklies runs. Especially the last 2. On another note... 12z eps is building the -NAO faster than 0z last night. Hopefully it slows down so your thesis is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Add1212 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 7:53 PM, Ji said: lol okay..i thought this week was the transition week. Jan 15-22. PSU magic Jan 15 date. Ill stay patient Expand That will be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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