frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 7:18 PM, psuhoffman said: A system crashes into the PAC nw and that does interfere with the system in the east day 10. But that's a temporary issue and it's on one op day 10. It's not something worth worrying about. Most guidance suggests too amped is as likely as not. Anyways he seems like a troll and I give his posts as much weight as I do chuck. I would suggest ignoring him. Expand No worries. At that lead it is unlikely to go down like that. Things are reshuffling and hopefully we get a better idea of the 1/20 to 1/23 window in a few days. I am somewhat confident we see changes in the NAO domain and along the West Coast in time, which will give us a new outcome. On another note, I am looking forward to the weeklies again this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 >>Block till you rock ~! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Descending effects in the modeling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 7:28 PM, frd said: No worries. At that lead it is unlikely to go down like that. Things are reshuffling and hopefully we get a better idea of the 1/20 to 1/23 window in a few days. I am somewhat confident we see changes in the NAO domain and along the West Coast in time, which will give us a new outcome. On another note, I am looking forward to the weeklies again this evening. Expand We would have killed for these looks a week ago. He can deb all he wants over a day 10 op run. I also think we need to realize the next 10 days are the transition not THE pattern. I still think the core of our winter is Jan 20-feb 20 and maybe longer. If the first threat doesn't pan out it doesn't mean we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 7:40 PM, psuhoffman said: He can deb all he wants over a day 10 op run. Expand The second I see a poster basing their analysis on a 10 day op I pretty much stop reading. You can't do it any worse except to just make sh1t up out of thin air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 7:40 PM, psuhoffman said: We would have killed for these looks a week ago. He can deb all he wants over a day 10 op run. I also think we need to realize the next 10 days are the transition not THE pattern. I still think the core of our winter is Jan 20-feb 20 and maybe longer. If the first threat doesn't pan out it doesn't mean we're in trouble. Expand Exactly, reading inbetween the lines from HM, Isotherm, and others the pattern takes time to mature. Things need to reshuffle and reset. Isotherm had mentioned after the initial beginnings of the SSWE and the high amp MJO all that heat, it requires time to rinse out the heat move to the pattern of colder profiles at the mid lattitudes and warmer at the poles. It takes time. I am not worried, I simply was referring to the Euro at day 10. Pretty sure there will be periods were we can get snow as blocking, not even in place yet, weakens and then look for renewed blocking after a brief reload period. Certainly at this point we should be able to at least look back and see there were model errors and expect there might be more. 1 MJO forecasts not correct by the Euro, yet some took them as gospel. 2 Late December ...No pattern change and winter is over, only to have this huge flip to colder and storm oppurtunities. 3 The EPS /Euro with a warm period after intial cold, now there is no warm period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 7:48 PM, frd said: Exactly, reading inbetween the lines from HM, Isotherm, and others the pattern takes time to mature. Things need to reshuffle and reset. Isotherm had mentioned after the initial beginnings of the SSWE and the high amp MJO all that heat, it requires time to rinse out the heat move to the pattern of colder profiles at the mid lattitudes and warmer at the poles. It takes time. I am not worried, I simply was referring to the Euro at day 10. Pretty sure there will be periods were we can get snow as blocking, not even in place yet, weakens and then look for renewed blocking after a brief reload period. Certainly at this point we should be able to at least look back and see there were model errors and expect there might be more. 1 MJO forecasts not correct by the Euro, yet some took them as gospel. 2 Late December ...No pattern change and winter is over, only to have this huge flip to colder and storm oppurtunities. 3 The EPS /Euro with a warm period after intial cold, now there is no warm period. Expand The d9-12 window is def there on the EPS. Spread big of course but this run will bring a lot of smiles to long rangers. It's not going to be boring after this weekend. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I like, extra value meal please ! :- 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nice 24 hour comparison here on the EPS 500 mb , better looks out West . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 That's EPS mean for the whole run? So subtract 2-6" for our area for this storm and that's 5-10" after Monday. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 8:23 PM, WxUSAF said: That's EPS mean for the whole run? So subtract 2-6" for our area for this storm and that's 5-10" after Monday. Very impressive. Expand Yes, I believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 8:23 PM, WxUSAF said: That's EPS mean for the whole run? So subtract 2-6" for our area for this storm and that's 5-10" after Monday. Very impressive. Expand Wxbell doesnt look as robust with snow means but mean qpf is juicy. After this weekend the mean qpf is around 1.2". Looks very active honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Earthlight, aka John, seems impressed with the threat next weekend and normally his forecast are conservative and not hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 8:23 PM, WxUSAF said: That's EPS mean for the whole run? So subtract 2-6" for our area for this storm and that's 5-10" after Monday. Very impressive. Expand "But the day 10 op..." -snowman5921 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Meanwhile HM posted this and I possibly may have taken this out of context but you can always visit his feed. I was most interested in Anthony's last sentence. newyorkstateofmind @emmanuellagoud3 2h2 hours ago More Replying to @antmasiello I hope the next storm, or at least soon we can get a more classic northeast snow storm dare I ask..? Direct messageAnthony Masiello @antmasiello 2h2 hours agoe I'm more concerned about that pool of freakin really cold air getting displaced next week into southern Canada. I hope that doesn't come down. Looks brutal. newyorkstateofmind @emmanuellagoud3 2h2 hours ago More yup, and if it does I guess automatic suppression with storms ? the only thing I hate more than wasted cold is wasting my time in achieving daily goals Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 2h2 hours ago MoreWhile the PV is displacing south and is displaced, you usually get quick-hitters. When it's on its way out, that's when you can get something substantia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 JMA RELEASE ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Add the jma to the list of guidance that evolves to a clone of all our biggest snow periods by February! Not that it looks bad before but my god if all the guidance is right about where this is going..!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 9:18 PM, psuhoffman said: Add the jma to the list of guidance that evolves to a clone of all our biggest snow periods by February! Not that it looks bad before but my god if all the guidance is right about where this is going..!!! Expand psu you think we hold course with the weeklies this evening ? And yes the JMA, very nice ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I seriously doubt this will happen because we rarely, if ever, fail....but could you imagine this board if after all this hype and unicorn LR patterns it was too much of a good thing and we cashed in very minimally in the end, if at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 9:18 PM, psuhoffman said: Add the jma to the list of guidance that evolves to a clone of all our biggest snow periods by February! Not that it looks bad before but my god if all the guidance is right about where this is going..!!! Expand Seems the gold standard - NAO, the Davis Straights block develops week 4 or late Jan, first few days of Feb. on the JMA. Nice look indeed with that feature doing the retro, starts as East based then moves West and Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 9:21 PM, frd said: psu you think we hold course with the weeklies this evening ? And yes the JMA, very nice ! Expand Yes. Today's EPS was even better but the weeklies have been rock solid for a month on where this is going. They struggled with the transition, first too fast and then too slow but they haven't flinched once on the end result. The euro and U.K. Seasonal always concurred and now the cfs and jma has come around to the same look. It's almost totally unanimous across all long range guidance which is pretty impressive given their erratic nature and the chaos at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 we score like 1 out of every 10 epic patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 9:22 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I seriously doubt this will happen because we rarely, if ever, fail....but could you imagine this board if after all this hype and unicorn LR patterns it was too much of a good thing and we cashed in very minimally in the end, if at all? Expand Rarely fail? Good one. Unfortunately I can imagine some on here that will be unbearable even if we exceed climo by 50 or 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 9:37 PM, Ji said: we score like 1 out of every 10 epic patterns Expand I totally get it.....epic patterns have a higher potential to produce an epic storm as opposed to a meh pattern. Less likely to see an epic storm in a meh pattern tho it does happen. Quality vs quantity I suppose. But like u said Ji paraphrasing as I cant vouch for those numbers verbatim, not every epic pattern will produce. It's like playing the nickel slots (meh pattern) and hoping to hit a big cash-out vs going into the high rollers lounge where you are going to drop more in but your payouts will normally be higher tho not as frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 8:47 PM, psuhoffman said: "But the day 10 op..." -snowman5921 Expand To be fair the ensembles have looked favorable in the long range only to crumble into a pile of fail as we got closer. Nice virtual snow to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Look at the gradient and cold air in southeast Canada. Imho this is screaming overrunnning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 10:40 PM, Chris78 said: Look at the gradient and cold air in southeast Canada. Imho this is screaming overrunnning event Expand overrunning with stupidity...the GFS output makes no sense. I started a threat for the Jan 19-24 EPIC pattern kickoff...not sure it will survive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 10:46 PM, Ji said: overrunning with stupidity...the GFS output makes no sense. I started a threat for the Jan 19-24 EPIC pattern kickoff...not sure it will survive lol Expand Close enough for 10 days out lol. Somewhere in the east looks primed for a huge snowstorm during your epic pattern kickoff. I just hope it's us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 10:03 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: To be fair the ensembles have looked favorable in the long range only to crumble into a pile of fail as we got closer. Nice virtual snow to look at though. Expand The only thing failing is your analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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