aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:04 PM, cbmclean said: Who is randy? Expand He works in the mailroom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:09 PM, showmethesnow said: Have to like the look at the end of the run for the Euro. Actually a fairly strong signal for a storm around the 19/20th. But 14/15 days away so... Expand As good as it looks at D15...it really looks primed to get even better. That Aleutian low is retrograding into a prime spot while ridging is building into GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:10 PM, cbmclean said: The Mozart-looking guy who tells AFUBN to shut-up all the time? I have been wondering what the story is there. Expand In a Stars Wars movie he is the Emperor. Yoda is still Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:12 PM, BristowWx said: In a Stars Wars movie he is the Emperor. Yoda is still Yoda. Expand And Ji is Jar Jar Binks. eta: And I am Han Solo, the good looking, roguish scoundrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 EPS sure does like the 18th-20th time frame. Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:09 PM, showmethesnow said: Have to like the look at the end of the run for the Euro. Actually a fairly strong signal for a storm around the 19/20th. But 14/15 days away so... Expand That’s an impressive signal on a MSLP normalized anomaly map for 15 days out. Ninja’d by LP08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:10 PM, cbmclean said: The Mozart-looking guy who tells AFUBN to shut-up all the time? I have been wondering what the story is there. Expand That's a picture of BEETHOVEN good sir!!! (we're both huge fans of that composer so...get it right! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:10 PM, psuhoffman said: So if listing day 15 kills puppies what does posting monthly progs do? Expand You must have missed that memo a few weeks ago. Every time a weeklies weeks 3+ are posted a unicorn loses it's horn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:10 PM, cbmclean said: The Mozart-looking guy who tells AFUBN to shut-up all the time? I have been wondering what the story is there. Expand Uhhh, may want to re-think that...(and yes, he does always say "shut up, Chuck!" ). On 1/5/2019 at 8:22 PM, Maestrobjwa said: That's a picture of BEETHOVEN good sir!!! (we're both huge fans of that composer so...get it right! ) Expand Thanks, I was just about to mention it is Beethoven (one of my favorites, as well), but you ninja'd me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:18 PM, nj2va said: That’s an impressive signal on a MSLP normalized anomaly map for 15 days out. Ninja’d by LP08 Expand Several things to like though some are subtle. We have a subtle look of a shortwave which looks to be running in the southern stream. And though very subtle you can see what looks to be the signature of ridging pulling out from the +PNA following behind that shortwave. Follow the higher heights to get a sense where that is. Also am liking the response we are seeing with the low pressure anomalies we see through that period of time at 500s. But again, 14 days away so much can and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:27 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: Uhhh, may want to re-think that...(and yes, he does always say "shut up, Chuck!" ). Thanks, I was just about to mention it is Beethoven (one of my favorites, as well), but you ninja'd me!! Expand Hey, my first ninjaing!! (figures it would be non-weather related, lolol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:26 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: You must have missed that memo a few weeks ago. Every time a weeklies weeks 3+ are posted a unicorn loses it's horn. Expand And here what he looks like so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 8:14 PM, showmethesnow said: And Ji is Jar Jar Binks. eta: And I am Han Solo, the good looking, roguish scoundrel. Expand My name is Inigo Montoya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Randy-do you have that Obi Wan picture I used for years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 9:02 PM, pasnownut said: And here what he looks like so far this year Expand Ahhhhh - so THAT'S what a unicorn looks like? The image outlined in the shadow is perhaps even more striking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 9:11 PM, psuhoffman said: My name is Inigo Montoya Expand You killed my winter, now prepare to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 The trend continues.. more -NAO on the NAM 84hr than GFS. If the NAO goes negative in the medium range, it would be a whole different mid/late January I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 9:16 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The trend continues.. more -NAO on the NAM 84hr than GFS. If the NAO goes negative in the medium range, it would be a whole different mid/late January I think. Expand Glad We are finally in the same universe on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 9:16 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The trend continues.. more -NAO on the NAM 84hr than GFS. If the NAO goes negative in the medium range, it would be a whole different mid/late January I think. Expand Chuck’s on board. All it took was the 84 hour NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 9:35 PM, WarmNose said: Chuck’s on board. All it took was the 84 hour NAM Expand Really don’t like to pick...but sometimes I just can’t figure him out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 10:02 PM, pasnownut said: Really don’t like to pick...but sometimes I just can’t figure him out Expand Don't hurt yourself too much on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 9:12 PM, WEATHER53 said: Randy-do you have that Obi Wan picture I used for years? Expand Remember that pic. Wasn't he standing and facing left, in the open, with the desert's sand cliffs in the background? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Gfs is busy and complicated with both streams leading into next weekend. Decent trend with stronger nao ridging/colder mids. 18z throwing in a daughter vortex just for giggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 10:16 PM, Bob Chill said: Gfs is busy and complicated with both streams leading into next weekend. Decent trend with stronger nao ridging/colder mids. 18z throwing in a daughter vortex just for giggles Expand Looks like some phasing is going on at 162 if I’m reading the Vort panels right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Gfs washed out the wrench shortwave that the euro has near the lakes and this vort panel is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 10:21 PM, nj2va said: Looks like some phasing is going on at 162 if I’m reading the Vort panels right. Expand Agree. H5 looks really close to how we can get an all snow event here. Unfortunately with 50 shortwaves in the flow we're not going to get any consistency any time soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 10:23 PM, Bob Chill said: Agree. H5 looks really close to how we can get an all snow event here. Unfortunately with 50 shortwaves in the flow we're not going to get any consistency any time soon Expand Exactly. And the PAC is still pretty progressive at this point so I imagine the models will have a hard time until we’re under 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 10:26 PM, losetoa6 said: Nice positive step as you said. A busy track week in the cards this week imo. Expand The best part of the gfs was backing off on the lakes shortwave/slp as the southern wave tracks south of us. Thats really important. The only reasons the gfs wasn't a decent event were fairly weak shortwaves phasing and flow was squished a little too much from the baby tpv. Small changes and we get an advisory event and modest changes and we get a warning event. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 For the first time everything is in agreement on the pattern coming. The cfs has flipped again and now matches the euro U.K. And jma seasonal and sub seasonal guidance. Additionally that pattern is now showing up on the regular long range ensemble guidance. Lending more support is that the pattern drivers behind the change are finally happening and not just projections. The sswe has happened. The mjo is going into cold phases. And the soi has dropped. Hopefully fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Thats a nice setup on the GFS. it goes ots because the sothern stream is too weak and progressive. Since there isn't a strong - anomaly off New England, it wouldn't be hard for it to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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