CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 12:20 AM, leesburg 04 said: I guess our only hope now is that you guys ability to predict weather is as good as your ability to predict weather Expand I cant predict the weather, but I predict there will be marked improvement in the advertised pattern towards D15 over the next couple runs of the EPS, particularly in the N/EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 When I checked this thread at lunch things were looking pretty optimistic. I came home checked the thread and.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 1:22 AM, cbmclean said: When I checked this thread at lunch things were looking pretty optimistic. I came home checked the thread and.. Expand That guy Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 15 days in phase 5. Latest post from donsoutherland. Note the mention of risk that it sends longer than modeled in phase 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 1:22 AM, cbmclean said: When I checked this thread at lunch things were looking pretty optimistic. I came home checked the thread and.. Expand The mood of this thread depends on whether the GEFS just came out or the EPS just came out. From 12-3 we are in GEFS-land. From 3-7 we are stuck in the EPS reality. Then after 7 we’re hopeful again. Until the next EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 They keep cooling northern Europe.. unawareness of what's happening now pattern wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 2:06 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: They keep cooling northern Europe.. unawareness of what's happening now pattern wise. Expand 5 minutes ‘til Wapner...and sometimes dad lets me drive slow on the driveway on Saturdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Have you ever seen a homeless guy on the street talking to himself? I'm now convinced they are talking to Chuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 By the way, what is the "vodka cold" thing in reference to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 2:06 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: They keep cooling northern Europe.. unawareness of what's happening now pattern wise. Expand agree--if the ice was icier in Iceland and the green was Greener in Greenland, that would probably give us an -NAO even the ridge in Hawaii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 btw...every rain storm we have had in DEC was once modeled as snow 9-10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I think the last euro run pushed everybody over the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:11 AM, cbmclean said: By the way, what is the "vodka cold" thing in reference to? Expand Vodka = Russia. Russia = Siberia. Siberia = Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:39 AM, wdavis5784 said: Vodka = Russia. Russia = Siberia. Siberia = Cold. Expand Yeah I figured that but it seemed like there was a specific incident relating to Joe Bastardi that everybody was referencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:41 AM, cbmclean said: Yeah I figured that but it seemed like there was a specific incident relating to Joe Bastardi that everybody was referencing. Expand he kept calling for Vodka cold in 2001-02 winter.....said it was 10 days away.....when it finally came...it was February...of 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:44 AM, Ji said: he kept calling for Vodka cold in 2001-02 winter.....said it was 10 days away.....when it finally came...it was February...of 2003 Expand So we're set for February 2020? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:31 AM, Ji said: btw...every rain storm we have had in DEC was once modeled as snow 9-10 days out Expand The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:50 AM, Bob Chill said: The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:52 AM, Ji said: On 1/3/2019 at 3:50 AM, Bob Chill said: The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. Expand Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now Expand We get a heartbreak every time the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:52 AM, Ji said: On 1/3/2019 at 3:50 AM, Bob Chill said: The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. Expand Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now Expand Yep, and many "heartbreaks" still drop an inch or 2. One of those would be a HECS this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:55 AM, Bob Chill said: Yep, and many "heartbreaks" still drop an inch or 2. One of those would be a HECS this winter. Expand I’m honestly more amazed at the lack of snow not only here but in NE outside of the northern tier. I’m used to DC failing but pretty amazing to see them failing too so far. I’m happy to see there’s a good signal for a significant event up there next week...could signal the real start of winter for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:58 AM, Bob Chill said: It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous Expand My Vort 101 handbook says a quadruple closed 500H low passing south of us should be snow in January. ETA: Shoot, the next chapter is titled “When the PAC vomits on your pattern” and explains the rest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:58 AM, Bob Chill said: It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous That's a heartbreak....look at 850 line lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/2/2019 at 11:49 PM, Ji said: i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels Expand You got it exactly. Right at 10k wrong at surface vodka that never poured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 4:04 AM, Ji said: On 1/3/2019 at 3:58 AM, Bob Chill said: It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous Expand That's a heartbreak....look at 850 line lol Expand All the way in NNE. For goodness sakes this is awful. Most winters this bad have weeks of 50s and 60s (like 01-02 or early 06-07), but instead we've just been lukewarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/2/2019 at 11:49 PM, Ji said: i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels Expand Ya know what that means? Buckle up for 2019-20! (I've already half-punted to then based on our history alone...below average winters tend to come in threes'! There were fewer times where it was just two below average winters in a row) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 3:58 AM, Bob Chill said: It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous Expand So just to clarify: Basically, anything that looks conducive in a LR winter forecast can be crapped on by the pac...and said bad pac can't really be predicted all that well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 4:23 AM, Maestrobjwa said: So just to clarify: Basically, anything that looks conducive in a LR winter forecast can be crapped on by the pac...and said bad pac can't really be predicted all that well? Expand We need things to line up to get a decent winter pattern. We can survive just a mediocre-bad pacific if we have a -NAO. We can survive a poor NAO if we have a great PAC. But if either of those is horrendously bad — like the current state of the PAC — then we can close the blinds for a while. In fact, a horrendous PAC is probably the worst thing we could have. It’s a bigger killer than a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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