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January 2019 Discussion


Hoosier

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After the disastrous December for many areas, January almost has to be better, right?

The first part of the month looks up and down, but I think it turns more consistently wintry with time.  

The CFS is suggesting warmer than average and dry conditions for the most part.  This would be a bad combination as it would require great timing of individual storms to have a snowier than average month.  Hopefully it's wrong.  It would only take a couple moist systems to end up average/wetter than average. 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201901.thumb.gif.3d42df9d8f33e249f47cb918b4ad5127.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201901.thumb.gif.d0482d3279e8236f31f632033003ea36.gif

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Well only 2 things can happen.  Dismember (lol) continues through the next month or we get crushed as we move into the heart of winter.  Still have 8 to 10 week left.  I don't trust any of these models beyond 48-72 hours, they are consistently changing run to run.  No science here but I think we get crushed sometime between 1/15 and V-Day.  The rubber band has to snap as we've been below normal SN going on 4 or 5 years straight.  We have been having ducks and geese winter around here the past few years and they are nowhere to be found this year that I've seen.  Just a gut feeling but like slow hurricane years, it only takes one to make that year infamous.:weenie:

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7 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Would've been disappointing enough, but that actually made it much worse!

And now we begin a new month/year with this. No surprise d10 snow maps are a total dud

 

Screenshot_2019-01-01 WeatherBELL Analytics.png

We will see if this talk of cold in the 3rd week of January pans out. At our northern latitude we do not even necessarily need cold, we just need to avoid torch and get some systems.

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22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We will see if this talk of cold in the 3rd week of January pans out. At our northern latitude we do not even necessarily need cold, we just need to avoid torch and get some systems.

By that, you mean systems tracking south of us. Cuz we've had systems. In fact about 3 in a row that tracked right over SMI. We'll never score if that continues, and that's exactly the same thing models have the next two systems doing (8th and 11th). Tough to polish this turd tbh

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10 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

By that, you mean systems tracking south of us. Cuz we've had systems. In fact about 3 in a row that tracked right over SMI. We'll never score if that continues, and that's exactly the same thing models have the next two systems doing (8th and 11th). Tough to polish this turd tbh

I meant systems will need to continue rolling through once the cold is here. Hopefully it will remain active is what i meant basically. We already had a big boring period in December. 

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I am not a winterista and I hope never to see a repeat of 2013-14 with the seemingly endless much BN temps (which in DJF in WI means single digits and below). February 2015 and the "spring" of 2018 were ominously close.

As I posted elsewhere, in "theory" just normal early January temps in WI should be plenty cold enough to snow. However it seems lately (other than the NYE overachiever) our options are JUST warm enough to rain, or brutally cold and bone dry.

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49 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I am not a winterista and I hope never to see a repeat of 2013-14 with the seemingly endless much BN temps (which in DJF in WI means single digits and below). February 2015 and the "spring" of 2018 were ominously close.

As I posted elsewhere, in "theory" just normal early January temps in WI should be plenty cold enough to snow. However it seems lately (other than the NYE overachiever) our options are JUST warm enough to rain, or brutally cold and bone dry.

Yep that's pretty much the last 2/3 weeks in a nutshell. It gets pretty annoying really quick.

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Today had the lowest daily record high in Minneapolis at 41. Needless to say we shattered this with a high of 46 today.

Although we are far below average on snow season to date, and received over an inch of rainfall last week, the low sun angle is helping some snow hang around. Here’s the backyard a few hours ago. 

A4A38AF4-5AEC-4E6B-9F2C-3D99A6AAC706.jpeg

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A little concerned about power outages with the wet snow/wind combo

...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE MONDAY... Travel will become increasingly difficult late Sunday night through Monday, especially during the Monday morning commute, as a swath of wet, moderate to at times heavy snow overspreads the Upper Peninsula. Snow will fall heaviest Monday morning into early afternoon, especially across the tip of the Keweenaw Peninsula and across central and eastern Upper Michigan where 5 to 8 inches of snow look possible at this time. Elsewhere, mainly across western Upper Michigan, snowfall amounts could top out around 4 to 5 inches in a few spots; however, travel will still be difficult due to the wet nature of the snow. Along with falling snow creating reduced visibilities, southeast winds are expected to increase with gusts upwards of 30 to 45 mph at times. These strong winds, especially over the tip of the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior and Lake Michigan will create not only blowing and drifting snow concerns, but the potential for near white-out conditions at times.

 

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