Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2019

[bjc3395]

Not terribly surprising but drought removal through May is expected through all of the Plains and much of the EML source region. I’m not sure if this will translate to a fun spring but I’d say buckle up, we could be in for a fun season. 

 

When was the last season where we were relatively drought free heading *into* the season? 2010? 2016?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The GFS valid for 3/1 kills me a little inside. 999mb surface low over SE SD, 80kt wsw jet at 500mb...and ZERO CAPE anywhere inland over the CONUS except peninsular FL. Save those for May and June, please!

[OKStorm]

Read about the typhoon out near Guam. Said that a February typhoon had not hit there since 1953 which was a weak El Nino at the time. Looked at tornadoes in 53 and there were some very significant events. So we will see but maybe not so slow this year. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Well, yesterday certainly broke the trend of a lack of violent tornadoes and few fatalities, unfortunately. We'll see if that translates into a better year for chasers or just more destruction and misery.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Well, yesterday certainly broke the lack of violent tornadoes and few fatalities, unfortunately. We'll see if that translates into a better year for chasers or just more destruction and misery.

Looks like NWS Birmingham confirmed EF4 damage per their twitter

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBirmingham/status/1102644881024053249

[andyhb]

Poll is now closed for this. Most popular vote was 1200-1300.

Tweeted about the new March seasonal forecast from ECMWF for AMJ and it looks active.

 

[Chinook]

March 1-16, 2019: 92 confirmed tornadoes (source, Wikipedia)

March 2018: 55 confirmed tornadoes.

We may be on pace to get over 120 confirmed tornadoes this month, as opposed to 55 in March last year. According to my calculations, the 2010-2018 average (not including hyper-active 2011) is 80.2 tornadoes.

[Roger Smith]

I assume May 20 is the first high risk? 

If so, congrats to rolltide_130 who said May 24, and OKstorm with May 4. Third closest was freshgeek at April 30th.

All other guesses were mostly in April, one was for late March and a few said no high risk. 

Minnesota_storms had April 26th but added EF5 for May 23rd (remains to be seen later today?). 

My remaining chance at success in this thread rests on the above consensus seasonal total (which was not quite the highest one offered). I don't know how that's going. 

[nrgjeff]

Looking at my first post this thread, I was one cynical MF last winter. Ironic we actually chased on that high risk day. It was a mess though. Our best day was two days later, documenting a couple northeast OK tornadoes in somewhat less awful terrain.

By late winter I had turned more optimistic. The west trough would not quit. It was there in December and back with a vengeance in Feb. Kept going for Dixie in March. Even as late April calmed down one would not be surprised if the west trough returned in May. Oh I'd say it returned - right at peak climo!

[Roger Smith]

Not sure how close to the actual count this would be, but Wikipedia currently lists 1,390 confirmed U.S. tornadoes (to Dec 30th) and says the most severe was an EF4 in Alabama on March 2nd.