Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2019

[andyhb]

That time of year for the annual thread as spring is less than three months away once more.

Following another extremely quiet year with a record low for EF3+ tornadoes and zero violent tornadoes for the first time since at least 1900 (going back through Grazulis' records), we look to be coming out of a weak El Nino event with some potential for maintenance through the spring, along with a PDO that may hover from neutral through positive. Last spring saw an amazing lack of troughing activity through peak season in the western/central states, with winter essentially flipping to summer. Would not be terribly surprised if this season blooms (if it does) a bit later.

Curious to hear general thoughts going into next season, hard to imagine one more quiet than this one for the Plains at least, although I thought 2014 took the cake in that department...

Number of Tornadoes: 1170

First High Risk: April 23rd

[CheeselandSkies]

I don't even know what to think at this point. I had higher hopes for 2018 because we were supposedly in a La Nina going into the spring, but it didn't help. Was it just the ill-timed SSW event that killed the spring, or was there more to it than that? The winteristas say there is a SSW event ongoing right now which is going to save the season for them, but my only concern is that it's not happening at a point where the effects will still be felt into, you know, May?

Number of tornadoes: 1000

No high risk. Going to continue the streak that goes back to after June 2014 (since none of the four in 2017 should really ever have been issued, except maybe the one in January had it not covered so much of peninsular FL where VEERED WINDS were an obvious issue, although they honestly would have been just fine sticking with the MDT risk of the initial outlook) and I don't see anything that is going to flip the table in favor of more higher end events.

[CheeselandSkies]

Perhaps a better SPC-related measure of yearly severe activity compared to high risks would be watch count. I was just looking through the archives and every year after 2012 has had fewer than 600 watches issued (tomorrow's slight risk is the last chance to get 2018 to a whopping 450). They issued 699 in 2012 and at least 800 every other year since (and including) 2000 other than (rather surprisingly, since I remember both as active years) 2007 and 2010.

I think part of the drop-off can be explained by better forecasting (fewer unnecessary/"busted" watches, although they do still happen!), but there seems to be a clear drop-off in overall severe activity most of this decade, with fewer extended patterns favoring multiple moderate to high-end events like May 3-10, 2003, May 21-30, 2004, much of late May and early June 2008, or much of April 2011. Instead we see extended periods of synoptic patterns generally unfavorable to central CONUS severe weather (eastern troughing) locking in during much of what should be peak season.

[Freshgeek]

1137 Tornadoes

 

First High Risk: April 30th

 

We're entering 2019 without a drought in the plains, which is unusual in recent years. 2018 was fairly active outside of the peak season in April and May. The fact that we're not going to have a record low tornado count despite the extremely disappointing traditional peak season is a good sign to me. As long as the jet doesn't take another Canadian vacation in May, we should be better off than we were this year.

 

Consider me cautiously optimistic. 

[Stebo]

Can't get any worse

1225

March 28th.

[Roger Smith]

I suspect we will have a very active season with at least one major outbreak. 

Predicting 1520 tornados.

First max risk will be around April 9-10. 

[monsoonman1]

1273 tornadoes

first High risk April 12th

[rolltide_130]

1050 tornadoes 

 

First (and only) high risk May 24th 

 

I think overall things are improved from 2018, but I'm still wary of the state of the PDO until there starts to be a long term reversal of its pattern (and it doesn't help that the NOAA site I've relied on for it is shut down currently) 

I think we see at least somewhat of an improvement over 2018 with a lot of that reasoning being that 2018, at least in the modern era, is the rock bottom in terms of an active severe weather year. Going to have to closely watch for any sort of late season SSW shenanigans again like what happened last year, but the current pattern looks improved to hopefully set the stage for a better season W of I-35. 

 

As for Dixie, I imagine we'll get some threats here as well but nothing really sticks out to me about the Dixie season as of right now. Years coming off a Nino are pretty hit-and-miss here, but the PDO plays a large role in that and IIRC its positive still but I don't know where to access that data outside the currently closed NOAA pages. 

[yoda]

1162 tornadoes

April 4th 

[largetornado]

1777 tornadoes with the first high risk coming on April 23rd in central illinois

[nrgjeff]

No high risk. 975 tornadoes. I know that's less than 2018 prelim.

We lack the baroclinicity in the current climate regime. 

If the cold verifies in February, those lingering effects of the SSW may fade by April. Everything a month ahead of last year? Get Dixie going in April. Plains craps out again in May.

If the Chiefs win a playoff game I may be more optimistic across the board.

[andyhb]

New CPC outlook hot off the presses for AMJ and MJJ looks very promising in terms of chasing.

[CheeselandSkies]

It's a start. Maybe this will be better suited for another thread but I'm struggling to wrap my head around why this upcoming winter storm will not be able to produce at least a medium-ceiling severe weather episode in the warm sector. Not that I'd be able to chase it anyway but I'd just like to track some radar signatures a bit like your avatar to get the adrenaline pumping.

[OKStorm]

High Risk  May 4th  I am going with 1301 for the year maybe with the end of the drought in OK things will get going again. 

[HailTracer]

High Risk April 28th. Number of tornadoes: 1210. 

This year is showing some promise. Particularly for the plains. Color me optimistic

[Indystorm]

1320 tornadoes with first High Risk April 6 in the Plains.  The Plains have got to get more active once again in a climatology sense.

[Sydney Claridge]

I know it's still early, but I'm already starting to get a bit concerned for this year's severe weather season with the arctic outbreaks happening over the eastern US, especially if the whole pattern with western ridging and eastern troughing gets established; to my understanding, this pattern ruined the severe season many times in the middle of this decade.  With drought expanding in the west there may be more concern for western ridging.  That said, if a western ridge can be combined with a ridge over the East Coast and troughing in the central U.S. (as the aforementioned CPC outlook seems to suggest) then maybe we will get several storm systems that move from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes region.  To my (limited) understanding this would be better with La Niña conditions though if you wanted to bet on tornado outbreaks.

I'm going to be a bit more optimistic here and guess first high risk on April 11th in the southern Plains, with 1200 tornadoes overall.

[CheeselandSkies]

Arctic outbreaks are normal in January. If they continue into late March and especially April, then it becomes a problem.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[MNstorms]

1356 tornadoes.

High risk: April 26th

Bonus guess: EF5 tornadoes: 1. May 23rd.

[andyhb]

This is one of the stronger signals I've seen in recent years from the seasonal guidance (the other being 2015) for above normal precipitation in the Plains during the main severe/chasing season. There wasn't much reason for optimism last year given the near across the board signalling for dryness /well above normal temps heading into spring + the ENSO/tropical forcing regime we were in, but it definitely seems to be different at least on a larger scale. There is a lack of drought across most of the states east of the Continental Divide right now.

California getting persistent stormy patterns with multiple heavy precip events is one of the changes from recent years too.

[CheeselandSkies]

8 hours ago, andyhb said:

This is one of the stronger signals I've seen in recent years from the seasonal guidance (the other being 2015) for above normal precipitation in the Plains during the main severe/chasing season. There wasn't much reason for optimism last year given the near across the board signalling for dryness /well above normal temps heading into spring + the ENSO/tropical forcing regime we were in, but it definitely seems to be different at least on a larger scale. There is a lack of drought across most of the states east of the Continental Divide right now.

California getting persistent stormy patterns with multiple heavy precip events is one of the changes from recent years too.

True, but a lot of things still have to go right. I read on another forum that forecast trough evolution was trending less favorable for severe wx next week, despite the extreme temperature swings we will see. Still plenty of room for things to change, though.

However in 2015 a lot of setups didn't hit their ceiling (May 16 being the most notable example) due to early initiation/junk convection. 2016 (apart from Katie/Wynnewood/Sulphur, Dodge City & Chapman) and 2017 panned out in a similar fashion.

[andyhb]

4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

True, but a lot of things still have to go right. I read on another forum that forecast trough evolution was trending less favorable for severe wx next week, despite the extreme temperature swings we will see. Still plenty of room for things to change, though.

However in 2015 a lot of setups didn't hit their ceiling (May 16 being the most notable example) due to early initiation/junk convection. 2016 (apart from Katie/Wynnewood/Sulphur, Dodge City & Chapman) and 2017 panned out in a similar fashion.

But one trough isn’t really a way to judge a whole season’s potential, especially one that requires phasing in order to reach any sort of potential. All you can really ask for at this range is a hint at a good large scale regime, hence my post. Obviously some of 2015’s setups didn’t reach their ceilings, but at least there were troughs/enhanced precip in peak season, which is more than can be said for last year in particular.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

But one trough isn’t really a way to judge a whole season’s potential, especially one that requires phasing in order to reach any sort of potential. All you can really ask for at this range is a hint at a good large scale regime, hence my post. Obviously some of 2015’s setups didn’t reach their ceilings, but at least there were troughs/enhanced precip in peak season, which is more than can be said for last year in particular.

Oh most definitely, I'm just seeing 1988 and 2012 comparisons pop up in other threads as well and getting antsy, especially coming off this #Polarpocalypse.

Not sure where those are coming from though since as you pointed out, the central CONUS has already been much wetter than the winter of 2011-12.

[nrgjeff]

Fortunately I can't see either of them. 2012 was blowtorch all winter, not valid this year. 1988 was the first really infamous SER drought, quite unlikely this year. Chiefs got to the AFCC (see my prior post). Time for renewed optimism in severe wx too!

UPDATE: Yeah action west of I-35 would be great. See below.

[andyhb]

Adding the new February run of the NMME to the growing signal for above normal precip in the Plains in peak season.

[bjc3395]

Contrary to what I’m seeing from seasonal/subseasonal forecasters such as Victor Gensini and Alex Gold... I’m skeptical to assume this year will be below average (or plainly bad). I see many folks assuming it’s gonna be a rough year, but I’m super skeptical of where we are in the state of forecasting long term. 

 

Im gonna guess -yes guess because that’s all we really do in this realm of meteorology - that we see an average year counts wise, but I think a good amount of that activity should feature the Plains, making for an AA chaser year. 

 

Reasons: this is the first winter I can recall recently of consistent PAC NW systems and the repeated swinging south of the storm track has kept us relatively drought free in the Plains, and the EML source region getting relief is a welcome sign as well. This is the most promising winter pattern I’ve seen in a long time. 

 

How much does that impact our spring severe? No idea - but it definitely helps to have soil moisture on our side, as it should alleviate intense mixing that can happen otherwise. 

 

As for the base state of the atmosphere, we shall see. I’m a little encouraged by what I’m seeing but.. I also remain curious about what, if any, correlation there is between our changing climate and the severe seasons we’ve seen post-2010/2011. Our record size is just too small to make any firm claims, anything else is guesswork or scientifically speculative at best, and that applies to research trying to correlate tornado occurrences with ENSO and other relatively small-sample oscillations. So I remain skeptical of the claims this year will suck and frankly don’t see much of an argument either direction. I think it remains to be seen just what we get, but we should have a better idea by mid March. 

If we could get a 2015/16 style year, I’d be stoked. 

 

[andyhb]

I will say that I’m willing to try my luck with an El Niño (contrary to Gensini’s tweet) given 2017 and 2018 were both Ninas and generally didn’t yield much chasing wise. 2015/2016 on the other hand...

[CheeselandSkies]

I would take a do-over of Rochelle day, and take off the week of DDC/Chapman this time, instead of the one after!

*Buuuuuut...at the same time, neither year featured a high risk. A lot of high risk days turn out to be overrated from a chaser perspective, but they can also be truly incredible with six to 10 or a dozen cells of that caliber scattered across a particular region.

[andyhb]

2015 with more dry air aloft probably would’ve had at least two high risks in May.

[bjc3395]

5 hours ago, andyhb said:

I will say that I’m willing to try my luck with an El Niño (contrary to Gensini’s tweet) given 2017 and 2018 were both Ninas and generally didn’t yield much chasing wise. 2015/2016 on the other hand...

Ha, I asked him to support the claim that this year could be dreadfully bad, and I got nothing. *shrug*. 

 

I concur... if 2015 had more of the EML we have seen lately, that is an all-time great chasing season.