January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ask and ye shall receive:

sorry for the gif, but easier on image space 

[Carvers Gap]

Of one final note, the teleconnections graphs for the AO and NAO are impressive.  They are a negative couplet.  The -AO goes to nearly -2 or a mean which is impressive.  The control falls off the charts.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Wow, apparently the GFS is even worse off than normal. According to Ji in the MA forum (claims to have heard from a guy with the Capital Weather Gang, Wes EDIT not sure if that is the same guy) that it isn't getting proper data:

"Evidently, EMC workers were deemed non-essential and there was an international format change scheduled to standardize how weather data is formatted that was being implemented right as the shutdown was declared. EMC has no one there to make the necessary changes so that the newly formatted data can get into the models. It still gets data but not as much as it should be getting. A degradation of model scores (accuracy) commenced around Christmas. Therefore, it's probably wise to lean more on the Euro and its ensembles then the GFS."

Obviously no way to verify this, but thought I'd pass it along. 

 I think I saw something published about this earlier, but assumed it was just a piece about how the Fv3 wasn't going to implemented yet. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Wow, apparently the GFS is even worse off than normal. According to Ji in the MA forum (claims to have heard from a guy with the Capital Weather Gang, Wes) that it isn't getting proper data:

"Evidently, EMC workers were deemed non-essential and there was an international format change scheduled to standardize how weather data is formatted that was being implemented right as the shutdown was declared. EMC has no one there to make the necessary changes so that the newly formatted data can get into the models. It still gets data but not as much as it should be getting. A degradation of model scores (accuracy) commenced around Christmas. Therefore, it's probably wise to lean more on the Euro and its ensembles then the GFS."

Obviously no way to verify this, but thought I'd pass it along. 

 I think I saw something published about this earlier, but assumed it was just a piece about how the Fv3 wasn't going to implemented yet. 

 

 

Well, let's just hope the Weeklies received proper data!  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah, trying to find the publication to verify if nothing else some of the details.

I mean, doesn't seem any more different than the Euro than normal, so I'm a little skeptical for now

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Found it:

This seems to be the key paragraph:

"Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data."

Comments on the WaPost site give some critique to balance out the article's argument. 

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

John, if that 1040+ gets established...that potentially has some ice if not snow, right?

Probably but I believe the track of the low would be more suppressed with the cold being deeper here.  There's some -30f air associated with that high. You'd think it would have pretty free reign on the west side of the Apps. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Out celebrating my son’s birthday, but just roaming the updates. Feel bad for ya, Carver. This winter has had a mind of its own almost as if it notes anytime you call for an AN month.  For the record, I still stand fairly close to your January temp projections. 

Nice!  For once, my winter ideas are actually OK.  And let me say, there are some winters where I miss often!  I missed November badly for sure, but technically I have not missed a month this winter.  Remember, I took an El Nino backloaded winter so I am thrilled if the Weeklies verify.  December was warm which I had for my seasonal forecast. And I actually feel pretty good about my week-by-week January forecast(Dec 31 post) given it is +12 right now at TRI after wk 1.  I went slightly AN for the entire month w BN week 4 and a transition for week 3.  I noted that in order to finish at slightly AN that the last 1/3 had to be stone cold in order to erase early month departures. I did have week 2 as much AN, and that week will likely bust.  The other three weeks look good...so far.  As for seasonal...I had December as slightly AN, January as normalish, and February as BN.  My big concern right now is that I am too cool for January.  I went slightly AN for snow for January and also for the winter.  Where I might miss is that I went w normal temps for the entire winter for temps.  If the Weeklies verify, they will likely erase the first month and a half of positive departures.  I never mind busting high on temps.

FTR....my warm-ups that I called were November(bust), December(verified), early January(will likely verify).   I have no other warm-ups scheduled at this time.  LOL.  So, if it gets warm again this winter season...I will bust the other direction,  because I have it cool or cold.

[John1122]

57 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Watching the 18z Euro roll in and it looks better to me for the 13-15th event. Ridge higher and steeper and energy slower, deeper, and more south heading into So. Cal.

So complicated though. 

Not (1), not (2), but (3) shortwaves trying to interact on the east side of a ridge cutting off as a bigger, more consolidated shortwave (7; sorry not sure how I numbered it 7) pumps up that ridge while at the same time trying to creep beneath it and join the energy over AZ.  Huge vortex over Maritime Canada trying to suppress. A tiny but important shortwave (black arrow) that, even though it looks like it is part of the others, is actually it's own little vort. near Lake Superior. Tropical connection (4) too (surprise this year, I know). 

 

On one of those crazy FV3 runs the other day it phased 3 pieces. 

[Carvers Gap]

This is my January forecast(written on New Year's Eve) before any model had flipped.  Doesn't look half bad now, but as usual I will own it if I miss. As noted, week 2 will likely miss...the rest looks good(famous last words).  Actually, I am glad the Weeklies are cold, or I would have been too cool w slightly AN for January and normal for seasonal.  I have ridden Nino climatology all winter.  It has worked so far speaking of the seasonal forecast. If we finish below for January, I will be thrilled given what it will take to erase +12.1 at TRI.  @*Flash*

On 12/31/2018 at 3:23 PM, Carvers Gap said:

All right....final call for January. Not even gonna look at the Weeklies...they are probably not gonna be pretty.   My seasonal forecast is slightly AN for December, normalish for Jan, and BN for Feb.

Right now this is a GEFS/GEPS vs EPS battle in the LR.  They are basically the exactly opposite w the EPS having a trough in the West and ridge in the East w the ridge maybe lifting out late... if extrapolated(basically a real crap show if you like winter...let's be honest....it is ugly...LOL).  The GEFS/GEPS is a weak trough in eastern NA w nice blocking over the top on the GEFS.  No model has sustained, signifiant cold air over the EC of the Lower 48...If the GEFS is to be believed, the cold lurks in Canada.  Basically, I think modeling is juggling so much stuff(see earlier posts), that I am going with climatology for the back half of the month and ensembles for the first half.

So, with all of that in mind...I am betting on a pattern flip.  When this potential happens makes the month very difficult to forecast.  So here is my best shot, and it may just be flat-out wrong in the end.  

January Temps

Week 1: AN

Week 2: much AN

Week 3: (transition week w the flip late in the week) normal to slightly AN

Week 4: BN (might be well below)

Overall month: Slightly AN with the assumption that the last 1/3 of January goes stone cold and erases significant warmth on the front end.  Right now that is a hunch with not a lot of model support.  Basically going to ride Nino climatology and bet that the SSW does its dirty work in terms of blocking.  Also, going to ride with the work that John has done regarding the November/January cold relationship.  I don't have to do this for a living so I can gamble a bit.   But I am going to bet the flip.

January Snowfall

This is always a total crapshoot.  I am going to go normal w a big storm to end the month and begin the new pattern.  I am still bullish about February w slightly AN.

Final note:  I also see a path to where this winter could be AN the rest of the way.  94-95 is a decent analog.  I also remember 89-90(Nina?) and I can't discount it since some indices such as the SOI have long term trends w Nina climatology.  So when in doubt...I am riding w weak Nino climatology which is a backloaded winter.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Probably but I believe the track of the low would be more suppressed with the cold being deeper here.  There's some -30f air associated with that high. You'd think it would have pretty free reign on the west side of the Apps. 

If it is stays on the west side of the Apps, the cold should funnel right down this side.  I will say that after looking at Holston's post about the GFS not getting proper data, I am a bit concerned that it might be flawed.  Hopefully,  it is not.

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If it is stays on the west side of the Apps, the cold should funnel right down this side.  I will say that after looking at Holston's post about the GFS not getting proper data, I am a bit concerned that it might be flawed.  Hopefully,  it is not.

It honestly looks like classic GFS to me. I do not expect the high to be that strong. One of its biases seems to be to have highs 2 or 3 mb stronger a few days out  than they verify, sometimes more. The FV3 seems to be having the same bias. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Hopefully,  it is not.

Thinking about it a little more, most of the data comes from satellites, right, if the energy isn't on shore?  The US should still have the GOES 16 and 17 so that should be pretty helpful with anything around the CONUS. Maybe the problems would lie more with global data up or downstream of those satellites' reach. 

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Thinking about it a little more, most of the data comes from satellites, right, if the energy isn't on shore?  The US should still have the GOES 16 and 17 so that should be pretty helpful with anything around the CONUS. Maybe the problems would lie more with global data up or downstream of those satellites' reach. 

I am sitting here watching this crazy football game...I just read your comments about the data, not the actual article.  Probably wouldn't hurt for me to read it.  LOL.  Which data is missing?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

According to the the Wa Post article there was some global agreement to "standardize data format" so that all countries subscribing to the agreement would submit data in a common format for models to process. The people who would normally transition the GFS to being able to process this new data have been laid off with the shutdown according to the article, so the GFS is getting data, but can't process the new data format so some of the data can't be used by the GFS to initialize. 

"Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data."

Good game so far! Clemson is hanging in there. 

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

According to the the Wa Post article there was some global agreement to "standardize data format" so that all countries subscribing to the agreement would submit data in a common format for models to process. The people who would normally transition the GFS to being able to process this new data have been laid off with the shutdown according to the article, so the GFS is getting data, but can't process the new data format so some of the data can't be used by the GFS to initialize. 

"Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data."

Good game so far! Clemson is hanging in there. 

Wonder if any of our data being fed into the Euro is missing or improperly formatted?   Some of the guys responsible for our land stuff might be not working.  Also pretty bad that GFS is not up to snuff...and nobody noticed.  See @nrgjeff 's earlier comments....LOL.  He loves that model deep down.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Wonder if any of our data being fed into the Euro is missing or improperly formatted?

Typhoon Tip was making that argument regarding the MJO data a week or so ago in the NE forum. Not sure he got a full answer. 

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

He loves that model deep down.

I can tell it's his fav! 

It may say something about the GFS if it does just as good a job with partial global data. I mean, it didn't seem so different from normal to me. 

Ah well, on to 0z. Fortune favors the bold.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Typhoon Tip was making that argument regarding the MJO data a week or so ago in the NE forum. Not sure he got a full answer. 

I can tell it's his fav! 

Ah well, on to 0z. Fortune favors the bold.

I have not been impressed with the MJO modeling on either the Euro or GFS....the American suite was at too high of an amplitude.  The ECMWF has perpetually wanted to go into the COD beginning I think w phase 6.  Looks like it might squeak into phase 1 now...but now we really need it to go into the COD and stay there.  Just let the Nino take over.   I just think the MJO spike and +SOI have made a mess out of forecasts.  I will now just take seasonal Nino climatology for the rest of my seasonal forecasts.  LOL.  Somehow, climatology almost always works out.  Now, if this MJO keeps plugging along...there is a path to warmer temps for the rest of winter.  I don't think it does that, but it could happen.   

[Carvers Gap]

One more Euro Weeklies note, the 32 day precip mean is decidedly BN over the SE.  It has shown that at times this winter, and has yet to verity.  I think the STJ stays fairly active.  The 46 day mean has some sort of graphic's error.  If it verifies, just one more abnormal Nina characteristic during a Nino pattern.  Seriously, I don't mind if it dries out a bit....nice to see the sun.

edit:  Seems like it is overly BN w precip(remember we thought that last winter as well, but it was right), because it has us BN for this week w rain/snow coming in this weekend.  I think though that is a strong indicator of how cold it may get.  

[John1122]

The Euro was pretty nice for the northwestern part of the region. It snows across the state but it's losing it's punch and getting into daylight hours as it gets east of the Plateau. Nashville get 2-3 inches, Clarksville gets 3-5 probably with 4-6 in NWTN/SWKY. Plateau gets 1-2, SEKY does as well and so does SWVA. Slim pickings most other areas. 1 inch or less. 

A nice wall of heavy snow is working across the state then I assume it transfers to the coast because the precip dies off. When more arrives it's mostly warmed enough to rain.

The Euro is definitely the most consistent of the models at this point. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think it is also moving toward emphasizing that second piece of energy on the 15th after a front end stream of moisture.  We'll see if that can hold. 

I posted an image of the front end that I think John was talking about. Be nice to get to that point and see what happens. Looks to me like a problem for eastern areas too is that it mostly falls after sunrise. Something to think about is that it seems like sometimes these thumps in front of these sort systems arrive a little quicker, so maybe more of the state can get in on this if it gets here before sunrise. 

[Carvers Gap]

As for the weekend storm, my confidence in snow accumulations for 1" of snow or more remains moderately low for MBY.  

As for the over progression of the pattern at 500, this weekend will likely mark the beginning of the transition to a colder pattern with the potential for a very cold pattern.  That transition could take anywhere from 5-10 days depending on your model of choice.  It is interesting to see the Euro operational show a very nice transition to an eastern trough for days 8-10.  Of course it can change at that range, but that look needs to begin to show-up if we have a chance to move to that wintry pattern.  The EPS has struggled to see trough amplifications in the East from d11-14 recently.  That said, its overall progression is now relatively in sync w last night's Euro Weeklies.  The operational may even be faster than the ensemble.  I think the depth of the trough could dry this pattern out, especially if the Weeklies are to be believed.  That said, it really looks like split flow will continue and it is an El Nino winter.  So, it is likely not as dry as the stretch last winter.  With a trough that deep, it is likely that we will see some drying out.

That is about it.  Hopefully, folks in middle and west TN can score some snow this weekend.  

[Carvers Gap]

Just glancing over the model runs this AM, I don't think a front end thump of snow is out of the question for E TN from I-40 northward.  I do agree with John's comments last evening that a strong high to our north will make it tough for this to stay all rain.

[Carvers Gap]

I will also add that the 6z snow mean for the entire run is fairly impressive, especially for eastern portions of the forum area.   Looks like there are 2-3 storm thumps on that run w a majority of the snow in NE TN falling between d5-15 which is interesting.  The great thing about today, there is potential now within the operational and ensemble runs not named d14-16

[Carvers Gap]

From the MRX discussion this AM...

Moving on, a couple dry/cold days in store to end the work week as
Canadian high pressure settles across the OH/TN valley regions,
while an upper system and associated surface cyclogenesis exits the
lower Rockies and pushes into the southern Plains.  Upglide moisture
out ahead looks to spread into the lower TN valley and southern
Appalachians overnight into Saturday morning, with thermal profiles
possibly favoring a wintry mix of precipitation until mid/late
morning when WAA prevails.  As the weekend evolves the upper low
will move nearly overhead and the surface cyclone will slide by to
the south. The eventual track of this system will determine
resultant sensible weather across east TN and southwest VA/NC.
Nevertheless, the pattern does look like it could yield some notable
winter weather across the fcst area Saturday and Sunday, however
with the details yet to be determined.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

WPC's look not half bad:

 

[jaxjagman]

45 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

WPC's look not half bad:

 

Not a great storm track for us.Inverted trough would bring a warm nose with it,don't see much for us.System needs to be further south.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Normally I'd 100% agree and it still may work out that way, but the way the WPC is handling it is that it is dropping the energy down from KS, instead of running a low up into southern TN. But then again hard to tell with only 24 hour panels. They have trended more south with that energy since yesterday.

The day before attached. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I should have been more specific in saying it is not a good look for all areas in TN. TRI especially and areas NE of the track likely favored

[ShawnEastTN]

12z GFS has trended further south with the surface low by about 100 miles on panel 96 and 102. Hopefully the start of a trend.

 

Edit:. At 108 even further south than previous run. Thermals all still look horrible.

 

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