January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is a trend of the 0-45 day EPS snowfall mean from the past 5 runs. Apologies for the numbers on the images, but was having trouble with different images having different resolutions so it was helpful for me to number them. I know it isn't the cleanest .gif, but it's the best I got for now. 

My guess, if I had to draw a conclusion from this trend, is that the EPS family thinks chances for snow are there

 

༼つ ◕_◕ ༽つ  IF 

 

we can ever get the pattern to where the EPS thinks we ought to be after 15 days. But on the other hand it's been trying to improve the pattern after 15 days for a while. 

Evidence for the need for a less amped MJO? Maybe so. The Euro has kept trying to get the MJO into the COD or phase 8 for a while at the end of it's 15 day run. 

Another, more cynical interpretation, would be that it just keeps pushing it back; always 15 days out of reach. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, right? So there ought to be some hits given a number of variables and average pattern progressions in early winter.

 

I think it's pretty obvious I lean toward the need to get the tropical forcing to move along, but it is what it is and all I can do is speculate. 

Any and all other thoughts are welcome. 

Thinking about trying to do this for the 500mb anomalies for each week of the weeklies over the past 5 runs to see if there are any trends, but depends on if I have time in the AM tomorrow. 

[TellicoWx]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

All right....final call for January. Not even gonna look at the Weeklies...they are probably not gonna be pretty.   My seasonal forecast is slightly AN for December, normalish for Jan, and BN for Feb.

Right now this is a GEFS/GEPS vs EPS battle in the LR.  They are basically the exactly opposite w the EPS having a trough in the West and ridge in the East w the ridge maybe lifting out late... if extrapolated(basically a real crap show if you like winter...let's be honest....it is ugly...LOL).  The GEFS/GEPS is a weak trough in eastern NA w nice blocking over the top on the GEFS.  No model has sustained, signifiant cold air over the EC of the Lower 48...If the GEFS is to be believed, the cold lurks in Canada.  Basically, I think modeling is juggling so much stuff(see earlier posts), that I am going with climatology for the back half of the month and ensembles for the first half.

So, with all of that in mind...I am betting on a pattern flip.  When this potential happens makes the month very difficult to forecast.  So here is my best shot, and it may just be flat-out wrong in the end.  

January Temps

Week 1: AN

Week 2: much AN

Week 3: (transition week w the flip late in the week) normal to slightly AN

Week 4: BN (might be well below)

Overall month: Slightly AN with the assumption that the last 1/3 of January goes stone cold and erases significant warmth on the front end.  Right now that is a hunch with not a lot of model support.  Basically going to ride Nino climatology and bet that the SSW does its dirty work in terms of blocking.  Also, going to ride with the work that John has done regarding the November/January cold relationship.  I don't have to do this for a living so I can gamble a bit.   But I am going to bet the flip.

January Snowfall

This is always a total crapshoot.  I am going to go normal w a big storm to end the month and begin the new pattern.  I am still bullish about February w slightly AN.

Final note:  I also see a path to where this winter could be AN the rest of the way.  94-95 is a decent analog.  I also remember 89-90(Nina?) and I can't discount it since some indices such as the SOI have long term trends w Nina climatology.  So when in doubt...I am riding w weak Nino climatology which is a backloaded winter.  

Nice write up Carver. December temp anomaly wise for the US looks to end up as a weak version of Dec 1986. It's hard to find info for historical purposes for our side of the mtns, but NC state has a good database for the other side of the Mtn. Late Jan thru Feb 1987 was backloaded on their side, even with a storm with blizzard like conditions in early April 1987. Also, 1987 was the year DC was blanked in Dec only to end up with one of their snowiest winters. A weakened version of 86/87 could line up well with your thoughts. 

[nrgjeff]

The good, the bad, and the ugly, in reverse order.

MJO convection looks ugly on satellite. It had flared in two spots, one cold past the Dateline and one warm over Indonesia. All convection is weakening, leaving the atmosphere in a confused state. SSW just ended may favor other continents first.

Models look bad, continuously moving back the cold. I'm not THAT worrried, because NWP can flip on a dime.

Good news is we are just in the first period (hockey) though a quarter has elapsed (football basketball). Cannot deny the forecast is less bullish. However it's still early. SSW could affect NA later, but we'll see.

Happy New Year! ❄️ 

[jaxjagman]

Be interesting to see what happens.The cold keeps getting pushed back and back.The weeklies didn't look that bad to me mid month.On the Berlin site the euro splits the PV in a couple days but then reconsolidates it towards Northern Canada around day 10,no clue what will happen beyond that or where it goes,it's just a waiting game it seems

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sorry gonna ninja Carvers on the SOI today. -7.30. Woot woot! Hopefully a good sign. The lowest it has been in at least 30 days. And if I'm reading their graphs right it may be the lowest it's been since last summer.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS and CMC follow a very nice progression. Good to see some continuity developing there.  Need to see it from the Euro.

**Edit:  12 GEFS does not support it very well.**

[Carvers Gap]

Some really good stuff in the SE Winter Spec thread by @NC_hailstorm.   He provides some really interesting information on why the MJO has stalled and its relation to the QBO.  I am going to post a link to one post...but recommend reading the others.  He also discusses that another stall is possible.  

 

[tnweathernut]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Some really good stuff in the SE Winter Spec thread by @NC_hailstorm.   He provides some really interesting information on why the MJO has stalled and its relation to the QBO.  I am going to post a link to one post...but recommend reading the others.  He also discusses that another stall is possible.  

 

Let’s stall it next time for a couple of weeks in a “good for winter” phase....  

[AMZ8990]

What’s everyone’s take on the latest EPS? I read some mixed reviews in the Atlantic forum.  Looks like the models are sticking to their guns at this point.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

To me it seems pretty clear where the differences in the EPS and GEFS lie: tropical convection in the PAC over the course of their runs. I wish I could post a gif but can’t as of now since I’m on my phone. Forgetting about the EURO RMM MJO plots for a minute and just looking at where the models have convection in the  tropical pacific the GEFS (looking at 200 mb VP plots) progress the convection eastward toward our side of the globe before trying to refire it again near the Martime cont. The EPS, despite euro MJO plot seeming to get to phase 8, keeps precip mostly where it is now, implying convection doesn’t change much. Now I am comparig EPS precip plots to GEFS 200 mb VP plots, but unfortunately precip is all even my subscription has for the EPS. Well I shouldn’t say all, but it seemed the best way to locate convection. 

If interested PSU had a nice explanation in the MA forum of precisely how that convection impacts the PAC jet. He wrote it earlier today but I don’t remember which page it was on. 

[Carvers Gap]

26 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

What’s everyone’s take on the latest EPS? I read some mixed reviews in the Atlantic forum.  Looks like the models are sticking to their guns at this point.

I just commented to someone that it really can't get any worse than the d10-15 on the EPS.  Every region on the NA view is opposite of what it needs to be on the 500 map.  LOL.  I though the GEFS at 12z blinked(edit: slightly).  But I remain unconvinced that any model is correct after about d7.  

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

To me it seems pretty clear where the differences in the EPS and GEFS lie: tropical convection in the PAC over the course of their runs. I wish I could post a gif but can’t as of now since I’m on my phone. Forgetting about the EURO RMM MJO plots for a minute and just looking at where the models have convection in the  tropical pacific the GEFS (looking at 200 mb VP plots) progress the convection eastward toward our side of the globe before trying to refire it again near the Martime cont. The EPS, despite euro MJO plot seeming to get to phase 8, keeps precip mostly where it is now, implying convection doesn’t change much. Now I am comparig EPS precip plots to GEFS 200 mb VP plots, but unfortunately precip is all even my subscription has for the EPS. Well I shouldn’t say all, but it seemed the best way to locate convection. 

If interested PSU had a nice explanation in the MA forum of precisely how that convection impacts the PAC jet. He wrote it earlier today but I don’t remember which page it was on. 

IMHO, the EPS/Euro is still playing catch-up w the MJO.  A few days ago, it didn't even have it near phase 8.  The biggest differences is the amplitude of the MJO where the Euro appears in error in being to low.  That is causing some torch runs.  It may be correct, but I wonder if we see the entire suite at some point correct?   I am also unconvinced that the GEFS is correct.  That said, it was the Euro that completely whiffed during November and played catch-up w the American and Canadian suites.  Will be interesting to see.  But I am fairly confident that the first two weeks of January will finish much AN no matter the differences.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think NCHailstorms race analogy is apt. We are trying to beat the clock with this convection right now. It has got to decay or get east ASAP. Not only do we have the possible coronal hole to worry about but another warming in the strat. If SSW is actually causing cool air downwelling to the tropopause (as some have said around the weathererbs) in the tropics then it has to get somewhere else fast. 

I’ve seen some confidence that it is indeed moving east, but I’m just not skilled enough to give a definitive answer other than watch the satellite. 

I don't mean that to sound panicked. Just in a rush phone typing. 

[AMZ8990]

20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

To me it seems pretty clear where the differences in the EPS and GEFS lie: tropical convection in the PAC over the course of their runs. I wish I could post a gif but can’t as of now since I’m on my phone. Forgetting about the EURO RMM MJO plots for a minute and just looking at where the models have convection in the  tropical pacific the GEFS (looking at 200 mb VP plots) progress the convection eastward toward our side of the globe before trying to refire it again near the Martime cont. The EPS, despite euro MJO plot seeming to get to phase 8, keeps precip mostly where it is now, implying convection doesn’t change much. Now I am comparig EPS precip plots to GEFS 200 mb VP plots, but unfortunately precip is all even my subscription has for the EPS. Well I shouldn’t say all, but it seemed the best way to locate convection. 

If interested PSU had a nice explanation in the MA forum of precisely how that convection impacts the PAC jet. He wrote it earlier today but I don’t remember which page it was on. 

I think I read that too, I was looking at their forum content earlier.  Definitely a good write up from PSU. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think NCHailstorms race analogy is apt. We are trying to beat the clock with this convection right now. It has got to decay or get east ASAP. Not only do we have the possible coronal hole to worry about but another warming in the strat. If SSW is actually causing cool air downwelling to the tropopause (as some have said around the weathererbs) in the tropics then it has to get somewhere else fast. 

I’ve seen some confidence that it is indeed moving east, but I’m just not skilled enough to give a definitive answer other than watch the satellite. 

I don't mean that to sound panicked. Just in a rush phone typing. 

Nah, I don't think anyone sounded panicked.  Fact is, this looks like a very warm patter for the next two weeks.   I think it is perfectly fine to talk about why that happens and how we might get out of it...or how we might not.

[AMZ8990]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I just commented to someone that it really can't get any worse than the d10-15 on the EPS.  Every region on the NA view is opposite of what it needs to be on the 500 map.  LOL.  I though the GEFS at 12z blinked.  But I remain unconvinced that any model is correct after about d7.  

I agree, every model is just grasping at straws at this point In the long range.  What’s upstream must come down eventually though, hopefully we can flush these festering issues and get back to some sort of familiarity in regards to what we think should be happening given the variables we’re seeing.

[weathertree4u]

10 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Just read Hailstorm’s posts and find them fascinating. Conceptually...makes sense. Still trying to wrap my mind around the ripple effect and the order each ripple occurs in. Would be much more enjoyable watching solar wind, PEE, QBO, MJO trends if it weren’t for the fact this winter was so hyped. Letdown processing understood better in light of Dr. Cohen’s recent postings. I think next winter is already setting up to be less disappointing based on lessons we’re currently learning. I apologize as one who went after the carrot prematurely back in early October. 

Well said and right there with you!

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Just read Hailstorm’s posts and find them fascinating. Conceptually...makes sense. Still trying to wrap my mind around the ripple effect and the order each ripple occurs in. Would be much more enjoyable watching solar wind, PEE, QBO, MJO trends if it weren’t for the fact this winter was so hyped. Letdown processing understood better in light of Dr. Cohen’s recent postings. I think next winter is already setting up to be less disappointing based on lessons we’re currently learning. I apologize as one who went after the carrot prematurely back in early October. 

Glad you liked Hailstorm's posts...I like to look at things from new perspectives. That is great stuff.  And no need for any apologies.  Gotta take risks if one is going to get better.  We may rib each other from time to time...but trust me, I have the greatest respect for anyone who takes time to prepare a seasonal outlook and do research like folks have done in this subform and others.  I am wrong often as any long term member knows.  And I don't think you went after the carrot prematurely.  I don't think anyone could have seen this MJO spike.  Plus, this winter is not over yet.  Most weak Nino years turn cold.  I will be vey surprised if it does not.

[Carvers Gap]

What we need is a progression like the 18z GEFS to hold.  That is the way out of this.

[PisgahNCWeather]

HM seems pretty positive going forward and GaWx just had an interesting post. Patience is the hardest part once again but thinking good things will be coming in a few weeks.

[AMZ8990]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What we need is a progression like the 18z GEFS to hold.  That is the way out of this.

I like it.  Pretty broad section of the country with normal heights at 500mb late in the run too. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

I like it.  Pretty broad section of the country with normal heights at 500mb late in the run too. 

That is a pretty strong block that ended the run.  That would be a pretty stable and wintery look.  Once AN heights get in AK and Greenland, they are stubborn to move... Seem like we get a couple of runs that look great. and then everything is pushed back or erased on future ones.  This run was a tad bit faster per another person...I agree.   That run actually moved things forward in time.  I am somewhere in between amusement and cautious optimism.  LOL.

[John1122]

Lots of weird things happen in weather and sometimes we don't have an analog for them. Things have probably happened this way before but the window we've recorded weather in is incredibly small. 

This is an amazingly warm start to January we are looking at. It will be the only January in the last 75 years (that's as far back as I looked) that is very warm that followed up a November as cold as the one just past if the pattern doesn't break down and we stay warm for the month. 

One of you guys posted the other day that the atmosphere is behaving so oddly that this year may be an analog unto itself. Also, no one should feel bad about any forecast. So far the climate scientist from NASA who's panel I attended is fairing pretty poorly on her winter forecast as well. But we till have a long way to go, we aren't even halfway home. I've had 5 inches of snow already this winter, many of you even more than that. We are still a few weeks from peak winter and we get a solid 30-45 day window where snow and frigid weather can occur. 

[AMZ8990]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is a pretty strong block that ended the run.  That would be a pretty stable and wintery look.  Once AN heights get in AK and Greenland, they are stubborn to move... Seem like we get a couple of runs that look great. and then everything is pushed back or erased on future ones.  This run was a tad bit faster per another person...I agree.   That run actually moved things forward in time.  I am somewhere in between amusement and cautious optimism.  LOL.

Cautious optimism is better than no optimism! Haha

[tnweathernut]

The SOI daily contribution is: 

2 Jan 2019

1009.71

1007.10

-9.42

This is the third day in a row we have spent in negative territory,  Sustained negatives below -7 typically indicate an El Nino episode.  If we can hold the SOI below -7 and manage to get the MJO to move along into phase 7 and 8 I will feel better.  The MJO part seems to be muddy at the moment, but we should know this part of the equation in the coming days. 

It appears the ensemble forecasts generally get to a similar spot, but it takes the Euro several days longer to get there.  Who knows, maybe the weeklies from Monday will be right?  Long story short, if we are talking the difference in a pattern change January 15th vs Jan 20th, I think most on here would take that so long as the pattern finally changes and we end with a few chances for some wintry weather in the mid-south.

[tnweathernut]

36 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

MJO knockin' on 6's door. The problem is the aforementioned coronal issues which could stall or set it back again, granted the MJO and SOI were at different values/positions during last month's stalls. From my eye, sure seems the falling SOI is lining up nicely with the SSWE. Will be interesting to see how this plays out by W3/4. Speaking of the MJO, I feel like its recent behavior can be represented by one of those spirograph kits you had as a kid. Every now and then, your writing utensil would jam and you'd have to start over or continue  after a momentary delay. The good news is even if you messed up a few times, the end product looked great. A hopeful metaphor for the hopeful optimists on here.

To put the SOI in perspective, we only had two days in the month of December (other than the 31st) where the SOI went under 0 (not consecutively).  Dec 9th was -3.48 and Dec 26th was -3.32.  Both of the next days the SOI rebounded fairly quickly. 

It's always fascinating to see how things play out. I think I have as much fun looking back as I do looking forward! There seem to be a LOT of good factors pointing to potential moving forward.  The one good thing about potential is that it's not all that hard to shovel.

[Carvers Gap]

That is some serious cold on the 12z FV3 and CMC.  Talking -40 to -50 stuff across northern Canada from d10-15 and heading south.  GEFS is not as enthused, but the operational threw us a bone.

[tnweathernut]

1 hour ago, tnweathernut said:

To put the SOI in perspective, we only had two days in the month of December (other than the 31st) where the SOI went under 0 (not consecutively).  Dec 9th was -3.48 and Dec 26th was -3.32.  Both of the next days the SOI rebounded fairly quickly. 

It's always fascinating to see how things play out. I think I have as much fun looking back as I do looking forward! There seem to be a LOT of good factors pointing to potential moving forward.  The one good thing about potential is that it's not all that hard to shovel.

Progression on the GEPS is almost textbook to deliver cold into the lower 48.  We all need to pull for a progression like the one shown at 12z.  Say it's going to get cold, eh?

[Carvers Gap]

Trough amplification(might be transient) on the 12z Euro at d9.  Certainly seems similar to the FV3 pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

Just throwing this out there...but I wonder if the d5-7 storm is the signal that the old pattern is ending and the new pattern is transitioning into place?