January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[tnweathernut]

The timing differences are interesting with the overnight model runs.  American modeling is much quicker (almost a full half day) than the UK and Euro.  If there’s a delay in precipitation arrival you have to wonder how schools will handle this (if it plays out like modeling suggests).

As shown, the front will hit quickly and roads will also become treacherous quickly.  If it waits till mid morning to early afternoon thats a lot different than waking up with snow and knowing schools will be out.  At least in the Tri-Cities area they have been dreadful with school decisions lately.  Almost like they have no advisement on the topic.

Good to see the models hold, now if we can keep this threat there for the next 1-2 days I’m sure we will all feel a lot better.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Almost every 6z GEFS member has a similar evolution at this point:

 

EPS also now developing a cluster of lows in Central GA and aiming them at the MA

[PowellVolz]

Isn’t the GFS usually to progressive?


.

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Almost every 6z GEFS member has a similar evolution at this point:

 

EPS also now developing a cluster of lows in Central GA and aiming them at the MA

  Gotta love waking up to continuity between the UK and the Euro.  Great trends overnight,  T-96 hours Holston!!  We’re getting Closer buddy!!

[zippity]

17 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I put the wrong soundings in for you,put hun not hsv

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: HSV    LAT=  34.65 LON=  -86.77 ELE=   643

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  28.3    22.1    31008   0.00    0.00      92    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.8    27.2    37.1    21.6    31005   0.00    0.00       1    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  41.4    35.7    35.5    23.8    28005   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  35.5    30.9    30.9    24.9    30006   0.00    0.00      20    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  31.1    25.7    25.6    19.9    35006   0.00    0.00       2    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  34.2    24.3    34.4    12.7    33003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  37.3    29.6    29.7    18.3    30002   0.00    0.00       7    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  30.7    25.8    27.2    17.4    20005   0.00    0.00       4    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  29.2    26.2    29.1    18.3    25003   0.00    0.00      73    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  43.6    28.8    43.8    25.2    26004   0.00    0.00      89    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  45.2    37.1    36.8    29.3    19006   0.00    0.00      14    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  36.8    33.0    33.0    28.2    20006   0.00    0.00      25    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  34.0    32.7    34.0    29.2    19006   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  49.2    34.0    49.4    35.6    21007   0.00    0.00      98    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  50.4    41.9    41.6    38.2    21005   0.03    0.00      28    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  41.6    35.6    36.9    36.1    20005   0.00    0.00      43    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  39.1    36.4    38.2    37.4    17005   0.00    0.00      52    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  53.5    37.0    53.7    39.2    21007   0.00    0.00      21    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  55.5    47.1    46.9    37.8    19007   0.00    0.00      69    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  47.0    43.7    43.8    38.2    20007   0.00    0.00      94    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  44.7    36.2    35.5    32.4    33011   0.04    0.02     100    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  35.5    22.7    24.8    11.9    32012   0.24    0.24      59    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  27.2    22.4    22.2     7.5    31007   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  22.2    14.7    15.3     4.8    24005   0.00    0.00       0    

Thank you from Huntsville/Madison!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

29 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Isn’t the GFS usually to progressive?

I've heard that, but don't know if it applies to the new iterations of the models or not. These things usually tend to slow down as they approach though, but that could just be my selective memory. 

And that observation is usually for systems coming out of the SW, so this one could be different. 

[Carvers Gap]

37 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Isn’t the GFS usually to progressive?

Yes.  Good point.  Not sure during the short term, but I've heard that it has a progressive bias in the LR and that the Euro has a tendency to tighten systems up just a bit.  With the extreme cold forecast over Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota/Illinois, I suspect those temps are going to cause some issues with modeling outside of their usual bias.  Basically that means, I am not sure what the bias of each model is with those types of departures sitting just to the north.  With extremes in the middle of the continent, have to think that some things are going to get understandably mishandled.  

[PowellVolz]

Also with the arctic front, ratios will be better than 10/1 and getting better as the day goes on. I think 20/1 is a real possibility.


.

[Stovepipe]

2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

The timing differences are interesting with the overnight model runs.  American modeling is much quicker (almost a full half day) than the UK and Euro.  If there’s a delay in precipitation arrival you have to wonder how schools will handle this (if it plays out like modeling suggests).

As shown, the front will hit quickly and roads will also become treacherous quickly.  If it waits till mid morning to early afternoon thats a lot different than waking up with snow and knowing schools will be out.  At least in the Tri-Cities area they have been dreadful with school decisions lately.  Almost like they have no advisement on the topic.

Good to see the models hold, now if we can keep this threat there for the next 1-2 days I’m sure we will all feel a lot better.  

This right here.  Unlike the fat flaked snows that we get at 31 degrees, these high ratio cold snows turn the roads into a bumper car arena with as little as a half inch.  Counties need to be paying serious attention and, if the modeling holds, plan to just call off school all together Tuesday.  Exuberance is building!  Let's reel this one in!

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

This right here.  Unlike the fat flaked snows that we get at 31 degrees, these high ratio cold snows turn the roads into a bumper car arena with as little as a half inch.  Counties need to be paying serious attention and, if the modeling holds, plan to just call off school all together Tuesday.  Exuberance is building!  Let's reel this one in!

It’s not a party until Stovepipe shows up!  Hope you have been well, brother.....

[Kasper]

8 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

It’s not a party until Stovepipe shows up!  Hope you have been well, brother.....

I was about to say the same thing....... maybe it’s a sign from the snow gods lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z EPS lows:

still seems to like the second low idea

 

 

[ShawnEastTN]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z EPS lows:

still seems to like the second low idea

 

 

That is what I would like to see, a front alone makes me squeamish on getting too excited, but additional energy in our neck of the woods and not just way up in Georgian Bay and James Bay helps.

[ShawnEastTN]

Although IMBY if I get more than an inch in one storm that will be the most I will have gotten in 1 storm in the last 2 seasons.  I've only been dusted over and over the last 2 seasons.

[tnweathernut]

12z ICON develops a low on the front over eastern Louisiana and hammers southeast Arkansas and northern half of MS and northern AL with heavy snow.  Nice snows also in Tennessee.  Actually the max from the previously mentioned areas lift directly into east TN.  Going to be a great run.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yup, looked strikingly like the overnight UKMET

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yup, looked strikingly like the overnight UKMET

That's the same thought I had.  Really a beautiful run.  I am wondering if the storm being closer to the coast out ahead of this front will act to slow it down coming across (i.e. adding a few hours of precip).  Seems the later arrival on the UK and Euro may be feeling the other storm to some degree?

[weathertree4u]

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

12z ICON develops a low on the front over eastern Louisiana and hammers southeast Arkansas and northern half of MS and northern AL with heavy snow.  Nice snows also in Tennessee.  Actually the max from the previously mentioned areas lift directly into east TN.  Going to be a great run.

Maps? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

Just now, weathertree4u said:

Maps? 

For the ICON, I'd just check tropical tidbits, if it were the UKMET or EURO which are harder to get I'd post it, but for the ICON, unless it was kvskelton's ante diluvian blizzard, I won't take the time

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Seems the later arrival on the UK and Euro may be feeling the other storm to some degree?

Yeah, been wondering how the possible coastal could impact this one. If you look at the precipitable water on the Euro, it shows how a bit get's left behind and picked up by our storm. 

 

What if that storm (possible coastal) continues to trend NW? Does that give ours more moisture, does it amp it up quicker, does it function as a kind of 50/50? 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@weathertree4u the ICON basically looks like the UKMET, but with a bit shaved off the totals. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GFS looks basically the same to me from 6z. Similar evolution to the ICON, but less amped and more progressive. Imagine that. 

Here's something to think about in how the GFS has recently handled energy as verification time gets closer:

 

[ShawnEastTN]

12Z GFS Kuchera for Tuesday storm.

[weathertree4u]

Just now, ShawnEastTN said:

12Z GFS Kuchera for Tuesday storm.

I will take it

[ShawnEastTN]

12Z Canadian Kuchera

[TellicoWx]

Kuchera for the ICON would be crazy. ICON is usually on the conservative side when compared to other models...def got me more interested 

[PowellVolz]

Kuchera for the ICON would be crazy. ICON is usually on the conservative side when compared to other models...def got me more interested 

.

[TellicoWx]

Starting to think Carver is using his secondary low mojo from the other day on the models lol

[ShawnEastTN]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Kuchera for the ICON would be crazy. ICON is usually on the conservative side when compared to other models...def got me more interested 

I believe the ICON's "True snow:liquid ratio" is there own algorithm that is kuchera like. 

[ShawnEastTN]

As I see it two camps are forming, with the GFS possibly ending up on its own island over the next few runs.  Ukie, Canadian, and Icon like the idea of a secondary low forming in the Carolinas or the Mid-Atlantic.  The GFS and to a lesser degree Euro are just frontal passage with no low forming in the neighborhood.  The Euro though seems to be trending toward the idea of a low developing in the Mid-Atlantic.  This is going to be interesting to watch to see how it affects timing and speed of the system and whether it can over produce.